Canada: Politics: Hold the compress! SES pollster Nanos says straying from platform chips at Tory vote

Yes, you can remove the icepacked compress from your brow, and absorb new developments in the poll results, and then reapply compress to your poll-volatility headache. While the Tories have not slipped below 37% (well, just a smidgen), the gap between Tories and Libs has been cut in half. Still, that's nationally a 5 percentage-points lead. Can Harper recover a wider gap? get further out in front once again? I can hear the pounding of the horses' hooves as they turn the last corner of the track! - Politicarp

Here's the conclusion from last nite's CPAC / SES Nightly Tracking by pollster Nikita Nanos:

“The Conservatives continue to maintain a lead over the Liberals. CPAC-SES tracking has the Conservatives at 36.9% support followed by the Liberals at 31.5%, the NDP at 17.6%, the BQ at 10.0% and the Green Party at 4.0%. Battleground Ontario continues to be a neck-and-neck race and Stephen Harper is ahead of Paul Martin as the best Prime Minister by three points. In Quebec, BQ support has dropped to 41% - their lowest level since the start of the campaign.”

“My sense is that Tory momentum was generated by a combination of issues/anger and supported by a well executed campaign. Less emphasis by the Conservatives on their platform likely takes some of the wind out of the Tory sails.” – Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.

Note what expert Nanos suggests: The lessening of the intensity of emphasis on the Conservative Party platform has led to a loss of some voters. I'm not so sure. Note that the Greens have dropped considerably from a hi of 7% to a present 4%. I think the Greens have scattered in three directions (all this outside Quebec). So, while the NDP was gaining some Greens, it was also losing some NDPers to the Libs. And, some Greens went to the Libs. While some Libs had earlier re-aligned to the Tories, some of these Libs have now double-realigned back to the Libs. This is primarlily the reason for Harper = USA and other Lib attack ads have "gone about as far as they can go" (I'm thinking of the song "Everythin's uptadate in Kansas City," from Oklahoma!). "They've gone about as far as they can go." - Owlb