Saturday, September 30, 2006

China: Political economy: Rich wary of acknowledging wealth, no middle class

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In a report from Australia, Sandra Hattingh cites China Studies scholars of that national origina and Australian media (SBS TV Insight programme "China's Boom—will it last?") regarding what kind of capitalism exists in China. And how people feel about the whimsy of the system. Jennifer Cheng, a former policy research consultant and financial consultant from China, gives this analsysis:

"The bigger picture is that nobody dares to make long-term business or investment plans in China; nobody feels that his wealth and social status are stable. Today you can be a billionaire, tomorrow you could end up in jail for whatever reason. Two things are sure: no big money is decent in China, and nobody is comfortable with being exposed to the public as being too rich."

"Wealthy people are fearful; poor people are miserable, who see no chance at all of getting anywhere in society, and who even have problems surviving. Middle class? There is no such thing in China. With everything subject to Communist Party whims, liable to change at any time, there is no political, social or economic environment for a middle class to be formed in society," she says.

"The bad debt of the banks may have well risen to somewhere between 40 per cent to 60 per cent, far above the 25 per cent bankrupt level by the international standard. Can we perceive such a society as stable? That's the real mind of China under this regime: not daring to face the world and tell people anything about their 'business'."
At the same time and in sharp contrast, the International Monetary Fund, composd of 184 countries, has "approved plans to boost China's voting rights and financial contribution to the body."
The IMF's main objective is to ensure global financial stability and to support the international financial system in times of crisis.

Its critics had argued that its lopsided voting system meant that it was in danger of losing credibility, with countries either ignoring its advice or turning to other sources of emergency funding.
Asia > China:
These governance reforms are tremendously important for the future of our institution, says Rodrigo de Rato, IMF managing director.

The IMF's existing structure, which effectively gives the US twice the voting rights of any other member, dates back to its foundation in 1945.

Reforms agreed in Singapore will see China, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey all gain greater influence within the IMF.

China will, in effect, become the IMF's sixth most powerful member behind the US, Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

China currently has fewer votes than either Belgium or the Netherlands, even though its economy is twice the size of the two combined.
Opposition came chiefly from Latin America and the Middle East, says BBC.

Any peaceful attempt to enter the political system to offer an alternative to ruling Party whimsy, which imperils the stablity of the economic system and the longevity of the boom, is met with fierce reaction by authorities. One such effort toward alternative political representation in China has historic roots.
Pan-blue Alliance was originally established online on August 18, 2004. It provides services to the party members of the Kuoming Tang in mainland China. The Alliance currently claims "Thousands of registered members distributed in more than 20 cities." Its core principles and ideology are to "negate Communism, promote the Three People's Principle, and resolve to unite the country through the Kuoming Tang (the National Party that ruled China during World War II and is currently one of the major political parties in Taiwan)."
One Pan-Blue member, Sun Buer,
was recently put under surveillance and followed by the police in Wuhan for running the local election for the Deputy of the People's Congress. He was forced to withdraw from the election because he was beaten so badly by the police that he should have been in a hospital. However, he could not afford it and he had to stay at home.

The police have detained many members in various places who are promoting freedom and democracy in China. Many of them are supporting Falun Gong practitioners, who are being persecuted through torture, forced labor, and execution via the removal of their organs, which are then sold for profit.
The utter dependence of the boom-capitalist economy on the whimsy of the corrupt Communist party, with no chance permitted toward the formation of even the smallest representation in the China-wide Chamber of Deputies of alternative parties to raise issues, debate policies, and keep the Communists on their toes and honest.

Under the surface, of course, their are factions and tendencies within the Chinese Communist Party, not only in the military where a cult of Hu Jintoa is being promoted, but also in the Chamber of Deputies itself. The regressive factions make the legitmation of the boom-capitalist system incomplete, unexamined, insufficeintly regulated, and dangerous not just for China but for the world's economy as it becomes ever-more enmeshed the Chinese matrix of political ecnomic volatility.

Just before posting this blog-entry, I double-checked my URL sources on China, and found this very important article by Sinclair Stewart and Geoffrey York, "The Chinese bank puzzle" (Sep30,2k6) Globe and Mail.
The febrile activity is easy enough to understand. The Chinese Economic Miracle is in full swing, and making a bet on the country's major banks is seen as one of the easiest ways to ride the wave. These are the institutions, after all, that are lending money to China's burgeoning industrial base, and that help to finance everything from new home purchases to the country's increasing need for foreign acquisitions. If you believe growth will continue at its double-digit clip, and that the country is serious about its privatization plans, the demand for Chinese banks stocks seems perfectly logical.

Lurking behind this infectious enthusiasm, however, is the bigger question of whether China's state-owned banks, riven as they have been by fraud, largesse, and hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bad loans, are stable enough to be foisted onto public shareholders. This is a country, despite its continuing reform efforts, where transparency remains dim, where ascertaining objective financial data can be an exercise in frustration, and where the state keeps a leaden hand even on the so-called "private" companies that have been spun off in the markets.
What there may be of a middle-class in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Beijing would seem intent on putting its savings at the mercy of the whimsical Communist regime, not because these would-be investors are making wise use of assets, but out of the proverbial Chinese potential for gambling. Banking seems now to be rather much a huge lottery in China, where the assured winner will be the the Communist state.

-- Politicarp

Further Resources

Uigher woman nominated for Nobel Peace Prize
Declaration of Independence of China's colonies


Further Info on refWrite

rW2 China: Would a religion law help promote religious freedom? (Oct1,2k6)
rW2 Pisteutics: China's Catholics: New Vatican-loyal bishop discovered by Communists, church attacked, arrests, disappearances (Oct3,2k6)
rWrBI China: Communist: Freedom of information keeps taking hits in China, with occasional upbeats in the mix (Oct3,2k6)

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Politics: Bolivia's Constitution: Prez Evo Morales confronts obstacles to his grand plan, economy sputters from nationalizations

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When Evo Morales won election as President of Bolivia last year, it took him only months to nationalize the oil industry (more technically, the hydrocarbon industry, as it's termed in Spanish). Bolivia's hydrocarbon industrial sector is dominated by a number of foreign-based mega-corporations owned by shareholders who purchased their interests in these multnationals on the international stockmarkets. Besides processing and uses of hydrocarbons in Bolivia itself, the main customers for exports are Brazil and Chile.

Between the external owners and the external customoers, Morales seeks ways of, in effect, changing the whole structure of ownership, extraction, and exploitation of Bolivia's natural wealth--especially, in one plan, by reassiging it to the country's poor -- who mostly are configured demographically in the jointly-predominant two indigenous ethnolinguistic communities, the Aymara and the Quechua. Aside from the sheer demographics of Bolivia, however, the current and historic social dominance resides in the minority whites and meztizos (people of mixed-ancestory). These intersecting class, educational, medical, ethnic, and linguistic differences within the population further translate into regional differentials. So there are tensions between regions of the country, principally East vs West conflicts.

Latin America > Bolivia


At present, the Morales nationalization and his convening of an assembly to work a year to rewrite the nation's Constitution and thereby alter the role of courts and govt administration in relation to the legislative body of parliamentarians, has been stalled in each particular.

Beginning with the economy ond the key industries of hydrocarbons -- investment, drilling and pumping, Morales has shaken the confidence of the corporations who now are putting no further funds into their existing facilities and functions. The country is not receiving full benefits of the existing hc industries and companies, which are declining from lack of maintainance while paying the exorbitant taxes imposed by Morales. AP via Internatonal Herald Tribune reports "Bolivia says gas production not enough for new exports" (Sep26,2k6):

LA PAZ, Bolivia -- Bolivia has acknowledged it does not have the production capacity to boost its natural-gas exports but said current output is enough to honor contracts with Argentina and Brazil while meeting domesticdemand.

Vice President Alvaro Garcia said in remarks published Tuesday in the local press that Bolivia had plenty of natural gas underground but "not at the wellhead."

He said the lack of production capacity was the fault of previous governments — particularly the 2001-2002 administration of former President Jorge Quiroga, now an opposition leader — that allowed multinational oil companies to avoid prior commitments to invest in production.

Garcia denied the production bottleneck was the result of the government's May 1 oil and natural gas nationalization decree, under which all foreign companies are required to sign new government contracts before November 1 or leave Bolivia.

Hydrocarbons Minister Carlos Villegas also said Bolivia does not have surplus gas to export, but said it will comply with its export contracts to Brazil and Argentina, while also meeting domestic demand.

A Nov1,2k6 deadline is breathing down the neck of the Bolivian govt to pay its bills (including its bureaucracy, judges, and legislators). And, despite Vice President Alvaro Garcia's denial, two days ago, "the Bolivian Hydrocarbons Chamber, which represents Bolivian and foreign energy companies operating in the Andean country, said Bolivia risks failing to meet Argentine and Brazilian demand because multinational companies [operating in Bolivia] have frozen new investments due to the nationalization."

In the wake of the nationalization, Brazil's state-run oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, has said it has frozen US$2 billion (€1.6 billion) in Bolivian investments, while Spanish-Argentine firm Repsol YPF has said it has reduced its investments to the bare minimum.

A senior Petrobras official on Tuesday said Bolivia may not have enough gas to meet its export commitments to Brazil and Argentina unless new investments in production are made.

This picture of defaulting on supply to major customers ready and waiting for delivery, and at the same time scaring away investment both to presently active hydrocarbon corporations and to any further investors on the international capital markets, puts the entire Morales project between Spanish qustion marks. Which translated means, between a rock and a hard place.

These qustion marks pertain not only to the Bolivian govt's economic infrastructure, but to the lawnch of Morales' massive project of radically restructuring the Bolivian state and putting it at the service of the people (where "the people" = the Aymara and the Quechua, the race-marked poor majority who, as it happens, speak languages other than Spanish, the tongue and the literature of the elites).

At the Centre for Latin American Studies, Oxford University, professor John Crabtree in "Bolivia: the battle for the two-thirds" (Sep26,2k6), OpenDemocracy provides a pro-Morales analysis of the constitution-writing process:

Bolivia's ruling party, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) is locked into a politically consuming battle with the right-of-centre opposition in the assembly that is to rewrite the country's constitution. Each side is now mobilising its supporters in what is turning into a key struggle for power and influence. For the leftwing government of President Evo Morales, this represents the most serious challenge since it took office in January 2006, following Morales's and the MAS's decisive victory in the presidential and legislative elections on 18 December.

The constituent assembly was elected on 2 July 2006 and formally began its deliberations on 6 August, Bolivia's independence day. It is based in the country's juridical capital, Sucre, and has a year to agree [to] a draft constitution. So far, however, it has yet to begin its substantive business. Pro-government and opposition groups have failed to agree even on the basic rules that will govern the assembly's work, particularly on the margin by which decisions should be made.

The MAS delegates argue that individual decisions should be passed by a majority (50%-plus-one) of votes; the opposition - chiefly the rightwing Podemos coalition - says that the margin should be two-thirds. The MAS has a numerical majority of seats in the assembly - 137 of the 255 seats - but this represents 33 fewer than would be needed for a two-thirds majority. For the opposition, the issue of numbers is decisive in whether it will have any genuine influence over the proceedings or just become part of a rubber-stamp institution.

Behind this argument over numbers is a wider question of the interpretation of a linguistically ambiguous component of the constituent assembly's operating rules. The statute governing the assembly states that its decisions must be approved by a two-thirds majority. The MAS argues that this means that the final draft constitution as a whole needs to be approved by two-thirds, but that a simple majority is enough for each individual decision. The opposition contends that the MAS just wants to be able to override the opposition parties and effectively rewrite the constitution along the lines it sees fit.

Crabtree goes on to delineate the East vs West conflict in Bolviaian politics:
The main political champion of regionalism has traditionally been the Comité Pro Santa Cruz (CPSC), the civic committee in Bolivia's economic capital which has long sought to achieve greater freedom and autonomy from La Paz. The CPSCM is made up of representatives of the dominant sectors of Santa Cruz's elite, and its power has increased along with the growing predominance of the cruceño economy over the rest of Bolivia. The decline of Bolivia's traditional mining economy and the growth of cash-crop agriculture and hydrocarbons since the 1970s has increased Santa Cruz's share of GDP at the expense of the highland departments. The CPSC has managed successfully to identify the regional interests of Santa Cruz with those of the local elite.

The CPSC took the lead in orchestrating the 8 September protests against the government. It did so in conjunction with similar civic committees in the rest of eastern Bolivia, particularly in the cities of Tarija and Trinidad (the capital of Beni). It was aided in this endeavour by a number of more shadowy organisations with a clearly anti-indigenista and far-right agenda, such as the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC) and the so-called Nación Camba. These use vigilante tactics to elicit support for pro-regional autonomy campaigns.

Crabtree then cites the two major issues (and tacks on a third, in passing), a trio of issues that feed the fire of the regionalist drive, especially in the East, especially in the economic capital of Santa Cruz:

1.) The earlier demise there of the mining industry which gave way to an emergent hydrocarbon industry (both in the extractive sector) after private enterprise was permitted into hydrocarban extraction and processing. We have already looked at this key industry.

2.) The second economic factor driving the regionalist temptation of Bolivia's East and the nation's economic capital, Santa Cruz, is the agriculture sector. (As an aside, it's important at least to mention that the most significant agricultural industry is the cultivation and harvesting of coca leaves, and their processing into cocaine. Crabtree avoids this factor and how it relates to the eastern region of Bolivia as a whole and to Santa Cruz, the economic hub.) Crabtree:

Rural social movements, involving peasants and migrant workers as well as the landless, have openly associated themselves with the MAS. The government's plan to introduce agrarian reform has caused alarm among the organisations representing commercial agriculture, especially the Camara Agropecuaria del Oriente (CAO), another stalwart backer of the CPSC.
3.) "[Elite groups in Santa Cruz] are also highly suspicious of the government's policies of "ethnic affirmation", which may give new rights to lowland indigenous groups over the land they occupy and the resources on (or beneath) it." Indigenous internal immigrants have taken over land and squatted on it semi-permanently. The problem here is that these people do not know how to make their squats economically viable (compare farm takoevers in South Africa and Zimbabwe). The outlook is not promising, and Morales' plan must tackle both the landlessness, the worklessness (without income), and the lack of small-farmer lore. Except in those instances concentrated in the coca-growing industry.

To these analyses we now must add that of Isabel Moreno and Mariono Aquirre, "Bolivia: the challenge of state reform" (Sep15,2k6) OpenDemocracy.

The new government's failure to win an absolute majority opened the door to complex negotiations about the state and power that will take at least a year to resolve. At the same time, both questions highlight a series of problems which affect the structure of the Bolivian state itself; in particular, its democratic capacity to carry out a reform which could facilitate the construction of a more equal society that could combat endemic poverty and accommodate Bolivia's different identities (ethnic, linguistic, social and regional).
Of all the sources consulted, Morena and Aquirre's is the most sociologically systematic. Succinctly, they summarize the ground covered already in the course of this blog-entry: "the political programme of Evo Morales combines resource-extraction, attention to the rights of the indigenous people, and attempt to reform land ownership."

But parallel to all that, as a separate item, M and A assert: "as a country of extensive coca production led now by a populist left-winger, Bolivia has attracted close political attention from the United States." Somewhat bothersome here is the reference to the USA, as tho an agriculture devoted to the export of a crime-surrounded, h+ly addictive and life-destroying drug is of no intrinsic interest to the political analysis of the Morales phenom in Bolivia.

For our purposes here the final consideration regarding the new Evo Morales regime in Bolivia is "the indigenous factor. 60% of Bolivia's 8.6 million inhabitants are Amerindian; the indigenous communities have been marginalised by the political process and have suffered harsh exploitation since the colonial era; 62.7% of the population is poor (most of those indigenous); 26.5% live in extreme poverty."

The indigenous people have recently gained more institutional and judicial space, for example through the constitutional reform of 1994 (which recognises Bolivia as a multi-ethnic state) and through Article 171 of the constitution (which recognises collective rights). The so-called "people of the east" have a system of communal justice with established procedures, one that is secondary in relation to the state as a whole. Maria Teresa Zegada of the University Mayor of San Simón in Cochabamba says, however: "these formal gains have not had a real impact on the conditions of the people."
Morales has some blind spots to be sure, but his driving concern for correcting the structural flaws in Bolivian society in order to advance justice for all at least is shaking up the historical drift of Bolivia into deeper misery for most of its people. Hopefully, he will not kill off free enterprise nor alienate potential investors who can help Bolivia's ability to offer work and income to its people.

-- PoliticarpFuther Resources:

Bolivia: Ruling Holds Military Accountable for Rights Abuses
Bolivia - Wikipedia article
Bolivia - Google Search results
Bolivia Inc (business news)
Bolicia Web - News and Media

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Politics: Japan: New Prime Minister lawnches new govt with new cabinet and inherited policy of his predecessor

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Japan has problems to face: At home, it has an aging population bound societally by a sense of ethnic solidarity, a unique language with a long literary history that continues to exfoliate major writers and film-makers, a tradition in the arts and design that remains distinctive -- and much more that sets it apart and unites its people. But its birth-rate has fallen considerably, and it must allow large numbers of low-wage workers to enter and live among its legacy population. With tourists, American forces, and English-language teachers it has already made a small initial adjustment, but the scale of newcomers it must receive will be a shock to its educational, medical, and other societal arrangments.

Abroad, Japan has the unfortunate need to cope with the proximity of the nuclearized North Korean military, while at the same time South Korea is one of the most likely sources of the new workers it needs. Trouble is, South Koreans are heavily industrialized and there are jobs available at home for most of its workforce -- will there be a flow of North Koreans in control of NorKor intel streaming in among the SoKor workers that will most likely arrive? Would Filipinos immigrate into the former enemy just for jobs -- that's also a real possiblity.

Besides the Korean complex, there's the monolith of Communist China that regularly breathes fire toward Japan, and is also equipped with nuclear weapnry, historic hatred of Japan, and conventional forces which include an increasingly strong navy. Japan has a difficult task of diplomacy and military readiness ahead of it. Military readiness increadingly includes changing the Japanese Constitution to allow a more pro-active armed forces and naval forces of its own. Amending the Japan Constitution will not aonly produce a heated discusssion at home, but will inflame the nuclearized Communists of China.

Against these two unfriendly neibours, Japan has considerable affinity to the free state of Taiwan -- also a democracy, also industrially robust, also under Communist threat from the mainland. Further both Japan and Taiwan are friends of the USA, and would look to close realtions with the A,mericans. Except that the US refuses to recognize Taiwan. It's time both Japan and the US recognize Taiwan and compaign aggressively for Taiwan's admission to the UN, Unesco, the World Health Orgnaization, and other international bodies from which it has been frozen out by those who unfairly accomodate the Hu Jintoa regime.

Asia > Japan

The man of the moment who has accepted responsiblity for shouldering these tasks and Japan's needs generally is Shinzo Abe. He is Japan'e new Prime Minister, a youthful 52. AP via International Herald Tribune reports:

The new Japanese prime minister's priority list has few departures from his predecessor. Shinzo Abe wants a stronger Japan, a robust economy and a trimmed-down government. He wants a close alliance with the United States in both trade and security.

But when it comes to political style, Abe is worlds away from his former boss, Junichiro Koizumi.

Though equally media savvy, relatively young and well-groomed, Abe lacks Koizumi's eccentric charisma, his fiery rhetorical flare and the penchant for high-profile moments of levity. Instead of Koizumi's rapid fire, Abe speaks in careful, measured tones.

That new style was on full display in the first few hours of Abe's premiership Tuesday, when he named a Cabinet studded with fellow conservatives and ruling party stalwarts, but without a standout talent or unified direction.

"There were no surprises as there were in the Koizumi theater," Kyodo News agency bemoaned in an editorial late Tuesday. "The boat set off from the shore very quietly."

In terms of policy, however, Abe, who cruised to an easy victory in the parliamentary vote for prime minister on Tuesday, will provide a high level of continuity from his predecessor.

He vowed to pick up where Koizumi left off, pledging to overhaul his country's pacifist constitution, push through further economic reforms, and strengthen the already tight relationship with the United States.
At the Liberal Dempocratic Party convention that chose Abe from among the contending canddidates, 464 out of 703 voted for the new Prime Minister. "He won because he is so popular, not just in the party but in the country as a whole, the BBC's Chris Hogg in Tokyo says."

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Japan's ruling party choose Abe (BBC)
Japan mulls multicultural dawn (BBC)
"Japan extends its military reach," remains in Iraq for another year (Sarah Buckley, BBC)

Ireland: Republic: Prime Minister Ahern 'fesses up to loan irregularities, says not illegal nor unethical

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The Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland, Bertie Ahern, has acknowledged two loans from separate groups of friend back in the 1990s, a period under protracted scrutiny by an investigatory agency focussed on planification finances in Dublin, the country's capital. The Taoiseach (PM) was at the time Finance Minister, so the questions marks arise regarding the two consortia of friends as to whether they received benefits from contracts or zoning, etc, as quid pro quo for the loans.

Europe > Irish Republic

Ahern has been important to the complex negotiations regarding the pacification and devolution of government from the British cabinet (and Parliament) to the local parliamentary body--which has recently been restored in principle. A major conference on Northern Ireland's governmental devolution will take place next month in Scotland.

The Irish Republic govt, under Ahern, has functioned in tandem with the British govt so as to create a climate mutuality of the sponsors during Northern Ireland's lack of self-rule, a less than democratic arangement made as bearable as possible (one note the lack also is a violation of the principle of subsidiarity in politics, but it could be argued that the bleak situation required direct rule from a h+er level).

The questions raised about Ahern's finances cast something of a shadow, not only on his particiaption in the November devolution talks for NI, but also on the upcoming Republic of Ireland's elections next year. (Interestingly, Gerry Adams heads not only the Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland but also the Sinn Fein party which holds 5 seats (.6%) in the Dail (Republic of Ireland parliament). Ahern's Fianna Fail holds 77 seats (43%). The Republic is a member of the EU, in which also Northern Ireland holds membership, being represented directly thru elected members of the British delegation to the European Parliament.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Bertie Ahern (Wikipedia)
Republic of Ireland politics (Wikipedia)
Bertie Ahern - a good brief profile by CNN
Blair, Ahern original plan for NI devolution (Apr7,2k6)
Ahern, Blair restate NI devolutoin (Jun29,2k6
Blair and Bertie Ahern in Northern Ireland devolution talks (Sep15,2k5)

Monday, September 25, 2006

Terror War: Sri Lanka: Tamil insurgents suffer setbacks, but not broken

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The Tamil insurgents in Sri Lanka do not represent all Tamils there, not be any means of measurement. Known as the Tamil Tigers for short, and more fully termed in English the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), these deadly insurgents are most famed for recruiting children soldiers, sometimes by force, from the Tamil populaton, sometimes entering schools to do so; and also known for placing necklaces with cynaide suicide pills on cords around the necks of the youthful soldiers of the Tigers, the cyannide for the kids' use if about to be captured. At the beginnning of September a report emerged that the Tigers were weakened in battles with the govt military (Anuj Chopra, Christian Science Monitor (Sep5,2k6).
-----------------------------------

Update:
Tamils living in UK are intimidated by Sri Lankan rebel groups looking to raise funds for cause
Tamil Tigers extort diaspora Canada, UK for ‘final war’ funds
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The most recent truce came to a crash sometime after Sri Lanka experienced the full devastation of the Mega-Tsunami, the Tigers compalining that they were being by-passed in the distribution of aid and relief. Since the time of renewed hostilities, a further ominous development has taken hold in the conflict between the largely-Hindu ethnic minority Tamils and the largely-Buddhist Singhalese ethnic majority. Associated Press via Internaitonal Herald Tribune reported
"Increasing number of civilians disappearing in Sri Lanka," rights group says" (Sep11,2k6). Both the Sri Lanka Human R+ts Commission (SLHRC), an official agency of the Sri Lankan govt, and the Asian Human R+ts Commission (AHRC) of which SLHRC is a member, have united in laying the blame for the disappearances on bo†h the Tigers and the govt security forces.

Three days ago, the maltreatment of minorities and civilians extended to the third-sized community of Sri Lankan Muslims who are ethnically distinct from both the Sinhalese majority and the larger Tamil ethnic minority. Each of these communities are constituted by a religion/ethnicity overlap. AP via IHT (Sep22,2k6):On Monday, the bodies of 10 Muslim laborers were found in a remote jungle in Muslim-dominated Pottuvil, an area about 250 kilometers (155 miles) east of the capital, Colombo.

Muslim protesters took to the streets of Pottuvil on Wednesday, claiming an elite police force was responsible for the slayings. Police, who denied the allegations, fired on the protesters, wounding 14, then imposed a temporary curfew. Perhaps confusing the situation further is what seems a strange development on the diplomatic front, involving contacts between the Government of India, with the three political factions of the Sri Lanka Tamils.

Asia > Sri Lanka

B. Muralidhar Reddy writes The Hindu, "Delhi invites three parties from Sri Lanka" (Sep25,2k6):

COLOMBO: Close on the heels of the decision of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh not to meet a parliamentary delegation of the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA), India has invited representatives of three Tamil parties from the north-east to New Delhi for an "interaction" on the current situation in Sri Lanka.

According to diplomatic and political sources here, Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) leader V. Anandasangree, his counterparts in the People's Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam, Sidharthan and T. Sritharan of the Eelam People's Revolutionary Front (EPRLF-Padmanabha), are leaving for New Delhi on Monday.

"Some time ago we had expressed our desire to visit India to exchange views on the prevailing situation as well as the possible role New Delhi could play in resolution of the ethnic conflict. We have just received a message asking us to reach New Delhi. At the moment we have no idea about the details of our itinerary and the authorities we could expect to meet in the course of our possibly three-day stay," one of the three leaders travelling to India told The Hindu.

The invitation to the Tamil parties is believed to be part of New Delhi's exercise for a better understanding of the situation and to explore the possible role it can play to resolve the ethnic problem.
India's move to exclude the elected parliamentarians of TNA whose party does lean to support of the LTTE is quite puzzling because the three smaller entitites are also oriented toward a "Tamil revolution" to gain political autonomy for the areas where Tamils predominate in Sri Lanka.

Today, the war shifted again to naval combat, according to
Ruwan Weerakoon
of AP via LankaPage:
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) _ Sri Lanka's navy sank 11 Tamil Tiger rebel ships loaded with troops and weapons on Monday during a five-hour sea battle off the country's east coast, killing about 70 separatists, a top navy official said.

It was one of the largest clashes since fighting escalated in the area in August, and dealt a further blow to a 2002 cease-fire that was supposed to end Sri Lanka's bloody 19-year civil war. The latest fighting began late Sunday night when the navy spotted 25 rebel ships sailing from their northern stronghold south along the eastern coast.

Rasiah Ilanthirayan, military spokesman for the separatists, disputed the navy's claims. He said only three rebel fighters had been killed and none of their boats sunk.

``But we damaged two naval attacking crafts,'' he said by telephone from the rebel stronghold of Kilinochchi.

Tamil Tigers and the military frequently dispute each other's claims, and independent confirmation is virtually impossible as the areas are closed to outsiders.

The military said it planned to release a video proving it had destroyed rebel ships.

Navy Cmdr. D.K.P. Dassanayake said the rebel ships were believed to have been transporting arms and ammunition to reinforce the Tigers near the strategic eastern port of Trincomalee. Some 70 Tigers were killed and around 30 wounded, he said. The navy attacked with gunboats, he said.

The remaining 14 rebel boats retreated after the hostilities just off the coast of the eastern town of Pulmoddai, about 225 kilometers (140 miles) northeast of the capital Colombo, he said.

One navy vessel was damaged, and five sailors wounded, but the boat made it back to port, he said.
Needless to say, the situation is quite volatile and proceeding on several fronts simultaneously.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

LankaPage (daily news online)
The Lanka Academic (24/7 news updates)

Friday, September 22, 2006

Politics: Palestine: Abbas seeks unity govt with Hamas and recognition of Israel but Hamas leaders will only agree to a ceasefire

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Yesterday, at the opening sessions of the United Nations General Assembly, the elected President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, declared that a new unity government including both the majority party Hamas and the main minority party Fatah -- to which Abbas belongs -- would recognize the State of Israel.

2nd Update (Sep25,2k6):
Hamas and Fatah call off unity talks
Abbas says unity effort 'back to zero'
US sticks to Quartet's 3 demands on Palestinian Authority
While that may be the case, current Prime Minister Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas quickly reneged personally on the proposal.
[Haniyeh] said Friday he will not head a government that recognizes Israel, striking a potential blow to President Mahmoud Abbas' attempts to create a national unity government.

Haniyeh spoke a day after Abbas indicated at the United Nations that a coalition government of Hamas and Abbas' Fatah movement would recognize the Jewish state.

"I personally will not head any government that recognizes Israel," Haniyeh said in a mosque sermon in Gaza City, laying out his group's position in coalition talks with Abbas.

However, Haniyeh said Hamas is ready to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem — areas Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast War — and to honor a long-term truce with Israel.
MidEast > Palestine
"We support establishing a Palestinian state in the land of 1967 at this stage, but in return for a cease-fire, not recognition," Haniyeh said.
The rhetoric eployed here is so bizarre it points to a mass psychosis dominating the collective psyche of the Hamas leadership. Hamas, nor any other Palestinan force, has any control over the territories it lost in the insane 1967 War lawnched by a consortium of Arab states and calling upon Palestinians to leave their homes and flee to Jordan and Syria (which hundreds of thousands did, only to become permanent refugees there and losing their properties in Insrael, while those Arabs who stayed put still live in, and thrive in, posses their land in, and vote in Israel). So here is Haniyeh talking about establishing a Palestinian state in the occupied territories without recognizing Israel, but "graciously" agreeing to a casefire.

Of course, what's motivating Haniyeh at all toward a possible unity govt that he nevertheless refuses to lead, is the Palestinian Authority's inability to pay salaries of PA employees in all its various departments. The PA govt is the major employer in Palestine, and at the same time has cut off possiblities of employment of some of its populace who used to cross over the border daily into Israel to jobs. But the incessant terrorism of Hamas and, at the time, Fatah as well brawt that open border to a close. So, the Hamas govt raises few of its required revenues in taxes on incomes, sales, or other sources in the the moribund Palestinian economy. At the same time, it has squandered the goodwill of its Western donor-states due it its continued failure to halt the terrorists of its armed wings.

It's for these reasons that Abbas has left the exterminationist fantasyland to propose a unity a govt, recognize Israel and obtain the Western dole. But the Hamas leader cannot make the same journey. He cannot admit that Palestine would be a independent country prospering in peace and development were it to recognize its neighbour to which it lost the 1967 War the Arab states foisted in it against Israel.

Nevertheless, it's doubtful Abbas' unity govt can persuade the Western donor-states to come thru, if Hamas still manoeuvres for a ceasefire instead of recognition.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Across Palestnian territories support for Hamas erodes (Sep5,2k6)
Pressure could force Hamas into deal (Sep8,2k6)br>
West Bank: a government in jail

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Juridics: Australia; Aboriginal land claim recognized by Aussie court, limited r+ts to city of Perth and area

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An AP reporter Rod McQuirk in an article today in Toronto's Globe & Mail, "Aborigines gain title to Perth" (Sep21,2k6) details from Canberra how "An Australian federal court judge has given a tribe of Aborigines a limited land title claim over the major city of Perth." The word "limited" is important for the longterm results of the decision.

Glen Kelly, chief executive of the South West Aboriginal Land and Sea Council, which represented the Noongar people in the three-year court battle, described the ruling as a long overdue recognition of the traditional owners' identity.

Aboriginal leader Noel Pearson said the decision was “absolutely extraordinary” because it demonstrated that native title was not confined to unpopulated areas, where most previous successful claims have occurred.

Indigenous leaders appealed for calm and said they were “not after people's backyards or their farms.”
Pacific > Australia
“We're after recognition and if we get any type of benefit, it's to run businesses and train our people,” Ted Hart, also of the South West Aboriginal Land and Sea Council, told The Australian newspaper.

Australia's Attorney-General Philip Ruddock warned that open spaces in major cities could be up for grabs and white people could be shut out.

“In a major capital city, where you do have very extensive areas of parkland, water foreshores, beaches ... you could well find that if a native claim were found to be a bona fide claim and lawful, ... native title owners would be able to exclude other people from access to those areas,” he told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio on Thursday.
Canada, including Ontario, have barely faced a whole host of land claims by Aboriginal communities. We all have to rely on the courts to do justice to all concerned, and not let any one set of interests obliterate those of others. For the longest number of years, the Aboriginal interests have been buried and the line of descent and inheritance ostensibly obliterated. But this effort toward erasure of aboriginal existence is proving increasingly not to have been totally effective, and therefore no longer prevails automatically.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Aboriginal land claims under fire (Australia, AP, 1997)
Court blow to Aborigine land claim (Australia, BBC, 2002

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Calendar: Constitution Day USA: A day of observance, thanksgiving, and teaching the values of a democratic civic order

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Today is Constitution Day in the USA.

The American Constitution is a long and complex document outlining the r+ts of American citizens, their responsibilities, and the structures of the American government for those purposes. It's original version was recognized as containing flaws and was amended by adding a Bill of R+ts; it was amended again in recognition of the evil of slavery, and abolishing it as an outlawed form property. Other amendments occurred along the years as times changed, with new needs and further clarifications becoming needed.

A major resource for understanding the Constitution and promoting its values is the National Constitution Center.

Calendar > Constitution Day USA

Special sections are maintained on the organization's website - for teachers, for govt employees and military, for students, for community leaders including clergy of American faith-communities.

Here's an educational checklist you can use to test your own knowledge of the foundation of the American legal system provided by the Constitution. Can you define these terms?

* declaration_of_independence * jury_duty * independence
* electoral_process * proposed_amendments * washington
* exectutive_branch * separation_of_powers * virginia
* lesson_plan * federal_powers * suffrage * citizenship
* first_amendment * judicial_review * bill_of_rights
* founding_fathers * branches_of_government

On the site, each of these terms can be clicked up, leading to classroom-ready lesson plans on the topic. However, no thumbnail definition of each is given, as I would have preferred. You know immediate feedback to your own self-testing. The idea of Constitution Day is education in the foundations of civic order, the development of youth for citizenship, and the continuing education of adults in the basis of American civics.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Recommended book: America's Constitution -- A Biography
Recommended book: Original Meanings: Politics and Ideas in the Making of the Constitution
Govt-grant-assisted h+er-ed compliance with federal Constitution Day teaching event

Tags: Constitution Day education in American civic order

Saturday, September 16, 2006

Politics: Sweden: Serious challenge to socialists from Swedish Moderates and their center-r+t coalition

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2nd Update (Sep27,2k6): Mats Engström reports in "We still love the Swedish model" (Sep19,2k6) OpenDemocracy. 1st Update: Jonas Bergman reports in Bloomberg news: "Swedish Opposition Elected on Tax, Job Pledges, Exit Polls Show" (Sep17,2k6).

Sweden's four-party opposition ousted Prime Minister Goeran Persson's Social Democrats after 12 years in power as voters backed their plans to cut taxes to make it easier for companies to hire and sell off state assets, exit polls indicated.

The opposition, led by the Moderate Party's Fredrik Reinfeldt, 41, took 49.7 percent of the vote, compared with 45.6 percent for the social Democrats and their allies, the Greens and the Left Party, an exit poll for state broadcaster SVT showed. A poll from commercial broadcaster TV4 showed the opposition ahead by 48.6 percent to 46.7 percent.

The opposition laid the groundwork for victory two years ago when it formed the Alliance for Sweden, with common policies on taxes, the economy and welfare, last month issuing its first joint election manifesto. It also managed to convince voters it had the best recipe to end a decade of stagnation in the Swedish labor market.

``The four opposition parties allied into a formidable alternative,'' said Anders Sannerstedt, a political-science professor at Lund University. ``They have never been this united and in tune with each other -- I have to call it historic.''

The largest opposition party, the Moderates, took 26.6 percent, according to the SVT exit poll, while the Liberals got 7.3 percent, the Center Party 8.2 percent and the Christian Democrats 7.6 percent. The exit poll gave the Social Democrats 34.3 percent of the vote, the Left 5.8 percent and the Greens 5.5 percent.
BackgrounderIt looks like a close one lays ahead in Sweden, where the Social Democratic Party (SDP) led by Prime Minister Goran Persson wants to continue the country's life-long welfarism despite the challenge of securing a competitive position in the globalization process. The SDP has been in almost constant power over the past seven decades (only two times a loser in general elections for Parliament).

Now the socialists are facing an effective challenge of their own, with a center-r+t coalition contesting the field and at the moment leading by a slim majority in opinion polls of voters. The conservative coalition is led by the Moderate Party.

Reporting from Stockholm, BBC's Lars Bevanger, "Sweden faces cliffhanger election" (Sep16,2k6) tells us:
[The Moderate Party's leader] Fredrik Reinfeldt says reform is overdue. The opposition says changes to Sweden's rigid labour market and high-cost welfare system are long overdue, and promises to cut both employer taxes and unemployment benefits.

It also wants to cut the large social sector, which currently employs 30% of the Swedish job force.
Europe > Sweden
... Fredrik Reinfeldt... has accused the government of disregarding the high unemployment rate, and for not making sure this country can continue to compete in a global market.

The government maintains the unemployment rate is a low 6%, while the opposition says it is around 10%, taking into account the many people on sick leave and in job training schemes.

The Prime Minister, Goran Persson, has accused the opposition of wanting to destroy job security and make dangerous cuts to the welfare state.

He said this would undermine Sweden's unique social model - a cradle to grave welfare system and strong economic growth.
Regarding the Social Democrats' leading position among the parties for over a century, it's important to note the most recent interim when they were temporarily displaced. "The Social Democrats were narrowly defeated in September 1991, and the government of Ingvar Carlsson gave way to that of Carl Bildt (Moderate Party), who headed a minority four-party, center-right coalition composed of the Moderates, the Liberals, the Center Party, and the Christian Democratic party, which together controlled 170 seats" [in the 349-seat Riksdag (Parliament)]. Sweden's political-party system does include a small Christian Democratic Party which won parliamentary representaiton for the first time in 1991.
In the Riksdag, Sweden's Parliament, seven political parties are represented today. The largest is the Social Democrats, which is also the party that has played the most prominent role in Swedish politics in the past one hundred years. The other parties are the Moderates (formerly Conservatives), Liberals (a free-enterprise absolutizing party), Christian Democrats, Center Party (formerly Agrarians), Left Party (formerly Communists) and Green Party. The parties have traditionally been grouped into a rightist (non-socialist) and leftist (socialist) bloc. Toward the end of the 20th century, however, partially new dividing lines also began to play a major role, especially environmental issues and European economic and political integration. Today the parties face new challenges, among them a growing problem in recruiting new members, as well as a general distrust of established political institutions.
In regard to the Christian Democrats (Kristdemokraterna -- KD), the party endorsed by refWrite, a special note is here occasioned:
The Christian Democratic Party was established in 1964 but played an inconspicuous role in Swedish politics for many years, with no seats in Parliament. Thanks to an election coalition with the Center Party in 1985, the party admittedly held one seat in the Parliament from 1985 to 1988, but only in 1991 did the Christian Democrats make it into Parliament on their own. [EoN: "...[T]he Christian Democrats advanced from 4.1% of vote in 1994 to 11.8% in 1998 at the expense of the more centrist Center and Liberal parties, which narrowly passed the 4% threshold. The Moderates' share of the vote held basically steady."] In the 2002 election, the [KD] party received 9.1 percent of the vote.

The party's economic policies make it a "middle party" (along with the Center and Liberals) but otherwise the Christian Democrats clearly lean to the right. The party program points out that Christian ethics and Christian cultural heritage are of crucial importance to the party's ideology. This includes traits of both individualism and collectivism. Every human being is viewed as unique, but at the same time people need a sense of community with others in order to develop. The family plays a key role in this context. In the 1990s, the Christian Democrats focused successfully on social issues health care, schools and social services which have also been of central importance in recent election campaigns. Meanwhile they have tried to wash away the label of being an anti-abortion party.

The Christian Democrats have a positive attitude toward EU cooperation, without being a driving force on EU-related issues. They also adopted a position in favor of introducing the euro as the September 2003 referendum drew closer.
In the recent past, the Left Party (former Communists) and the Greens (anti-EU) have ... "formed a parliamentary alliance with the Social Democratic minority government on economic policy and other issues." It's these parties, especially the Social Democrats, which control the Church of Sweden thru the internal voting of the Church Assembly itself.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Encyclopedia of the Nations [EoN above]: Sweden: Political Parties
"Separation" of Church and State in Sweden
Religion, Politics, and the State: Cross-Cultural Observations
Anti-Christian political parties control elections in Church of Sweden

Friday, September 15, 2006

Economics: Corporations: Ford scrambles to restructure with massive buyouts of union workers to cut labour costs

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The big news in American business today is the apparent-pattern of radical restructuring of the labour force in the Big Three auto companies. First it was GMC, now Ford. Will Chrysler-Daimler follow suit in the USA? Sholnn Freeman reports in Washington Post, "Ford Set To Offer Buyouts To 75,000" (Sep15,2k6). I got the news as it broke thru MarketWatch, the DowJones business and finance news service. Back to WaPo's Sholnn Freeman front-pager:

Ford Motor Co. will offer its 75,000 hourly workers packages of incentives to leave the company, as the No. 2 automaker pushes to accelerate its North American turnaround plan.

The buyout packages, ranging from $35,000 to $140,000, are similar to those offered to union workers at General Motors Corp. earlier this year. Workers have been awaiting details of the plan ahead of another big restructuring announcement from Ford, scheduled for today.

Ford and GM, reeling from global competition and high gasoline prices, have initiated massive programs to slash costs. In recent years, the Detroit automakers relied heavily on pickup trucks and large sport-utility vehicles, but sales of those vehicles are down and profits have plunged. The companies have made deep cuts as they try to shrink their way back to profitability.
Behind the story of the bonanza for assembly-line workers, MarketWatch tells us, is Ford's deadly overall financial picture:
According to the United Auto Workers, Ford has agreed to send voluntary, one-time buyout offers to roughly 75,000 hourly workers.
"The goal of the buyout packages is to offer options to UAW Ford workers, while allowing the company to improve its cost structure and competitive position in the marketplace," the UAW said in a statement released late Thursday.

The package includes five options, ranging from a $35,000 retirement incentive to a $140,000 lump-sum payment and six months of medical benefits for senior employees. Eligibility for the packages runs from Dec. 31, 2006, through Aug. 31, 2007.
A similar tactic at General Motors has let that company pare its work force by 34,000.
Economics > Auto Corporations
Hammering out the deal was widely seen as recognition by the union of Ford's increasingly dire financial straits.

Detroit News>, citing an internal report prepared by the office of Ford's chief financial officer, said the company is projecting a 2006 loss from ongoing operations of $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion.

Soaring health-care and pension costs, a rising problem for many major corporations inside and out of Detroit, have been a major drain on the company's shrinking cash flow.

Add one-time costs linked to the company's "Way Forward" restructuring, which includes extensive job cuts and factory shutdowns, and the loss jumps to $9 billion. See full story by Bryce G. Hoffman.

Ford officials, while declining to comment on the report, said Ford would announce on Friday details of its accelerated turnaround plan, which seeks to get the nation's No. 2 carmaker back on the road to profitability by 2008. Leaks and speculation over the beefed-up downsizing have been big drivers behind Ford's share price, which is up 47% since late July.
ABC News' online feature Money carries an Associated Press analysis of Ford by Tom Krisher who has the courtesy to name the key players. The dramatis personnae includes: UAW president Ron Gettelfinger; new Ford CEO, Alan Mulally (just arived after being headhunted from Boeing) who will replace none other than William Clay Ford Jr; Anne Stevens, executive vice president, who designed the failed restructuring plan now being revamped and amped, is retiring at 57. Krisher doesn't mention that the head of manufacturing, David Szcsupak (51), is also being retired after just one year at that post.

Factoid from Bloomberg: This is Ford's 3rd restructuring in the last 5 years.

Factoid from ABC/AP: "Catherine Madden, an auto industry analyst at the consulting company Global Insight Inc., said although not all 75,000 workers will take the packages, the size of the offer illustrates the magnitude of Ford's troubles. 'No matter what, the number reflects the pressure the Ford Motor Co. is under right now,' she said. 'That's how significant the mounting pressures are on Ford.'

Factoid (same): "Ford had about 82,000 workers represented by the UAW at the end of last year, but about 6,500 have taken previous buyout and early retirement offers made mainly at plants already slated for closure, company spokeswoman Marcey Evans said Thursday."

Why are GMC and especially Ford in dire straits? Back to Sholnn Freeman: "Ford and GM, reeling from global competition and high gasoline prices, have initiated massive programs to slash costs. In recent years, the Detroit automakers relied heavily on pickup trucks and large sport-utility vehicles, but sales of those vehicles are down and profits have plunged. The companies have made deep cuts as they try to shrink their way back to profitability." Ford has refused to produce large-scale hybrid or fully-alternative autos, trucks, SUVs, buses, whatever. They haven't pioneered with massive ad campaigns to re-educate the public. They have not operated in the public interest. And, they have given-in obsequiously to monopolistic labour unions with outmoded anti-pluralist approaches to representation of workers, unions which first joined the auto employers in their defective philosophy against the public interest (major polluters) and unions which then blackmailed the Big Three with wage/benefits demands that were beyond good, that couldn't be sustained, and are now coming home to roost. Sad to say. We need to build Christian labor movements to challenge the monopolism, anti-pluralism, forced membership, inflated wage/benefit demands that bring employers to ruin, and contribute to choking our society with polluting products.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Bloomberg's report on Ford
Board of Directors, Ford Motor Company

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Diplomacy: Secession: Kosovo moves slowly toward independence from Serbia where public opinion now accepts inevitable

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The cause of Kosovo independence inches forward relentlessly. Nine session have been held so far over many months to find a consensus between Serbia and Kosovo, as to the latter countries leaving the formal trappings of its previous status as integral to Serbia's territory and national jurisdiction. The moment Serbia began its military campaign of genocide against the Kosovars, it lost all moral authority to continue "ownership" and "sovereignty" over what was 15% of its national territorial jurisdiction and the 90% population majority it was determined to keep in a subcitizen status. That day is over because of the Milosevic War against the Kosovars, amd NATO intervention against Serbia. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo constitute only 6% of the largely Muslim-background population, tho there are additional minorities neither culturally Muslim nor Serbian (Orthodox).

Still, ethnic Serb Kosovars (we shall call them, or just Serb Kosovars) have considerable nostalgia for the Milosevic mirage of "Greater Serbia" which was actually a n+tmare of oppression and which is still the political fantasy of Serbia's largest political party , the Serbian Radical Party which is correctly excluded from the governing coalition. In Serbia itself, a recent poll concludes "most Serbs want Kosovo to remain part of Serbia but are pessimistic." That pessimism is important, and it is good, despite the longevity of the fantasy. Acceptance of a free and independent Kosovo is coming to consciousness among the Serbs.

In the meantime, Serbia without Kosovo is plagued by the constant reminder by the European Union and the International Criminal Court for former Yugoslavia in the Hague regarding the Serbian institutions hiding wanted alleged genocidists, like former Gen Ratko Mladic (see also: Del Ponte). Not just this, but huge major claims by expatriate Serbs in the US and other countries are presenting ownership claims seized by the Nazis and then by the Communists, diverting property to other interim owners. Southeast European Times reporter Georgi Mitev-Shantek reported on Sept 6, 2k6, "Serbia drags its feet on restitution":

According to earlier statistics, applicants who are now living in the United States are requiring the return of property valued at $500m through the embassy in Belgrade.

Statistics show that the state took away 726 million square metres -- or 20,000 pieces of property. In addition, securities, promissory notes, intellectual and industrial properties were also taken. According to the Denationalisation Law -- which is expected to be passed and implemented by the year's end -- property needs to be returned to the previous owners. If this is impossible, monetary compensation must be offered. The Restitution network reports that the property will be able to be physically returned in 90 per cent of the cases.

Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary started restitution 15 years ago. Bulgaria (1992), Germany (1994), Romania, Croatia and Poland (1996), Macedonia (1998), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2000), Montenegro (2002) and Albania (2004) have also started the restitution procedures. Serbia, however, is still compiling inventories of confiscated property.
One can understand if Serbs generally feel beleaguered by all the pressures presently on them; such pressures can contribute to a mass psychology of alienation from the outside world, and intransigence with movements for change, such as the massive represented by the cause of Kosovo democracy and independence outside of Serbia's tutelage. The Bush Administration invited Serb President Boris Tadic for a three-day US visit, starting Sep5,2k6)

Europe > Serbia / Kosovo

To head off this real possiblity, the US has made significant moves toward recognition and affirmation of the Serbian state. The result of the recent visit has been characterized by Tadic in this brief statement:

Wrapping up a three-day formal visit to the United States on Friday (8 September), Serbian President Boris Tadic said a new page has been turned in bilateral relations with the signing of the Status of Forces Agreement. In addition to military ties, it promotes "new opportunities for co-operation in all fields". Tadic was in the US state of Ohio on Friday, where the strategic partnership programme is headquartered. (Tanjug, RTS, Danas - 09/09/06)
Along the lines of military cooperation with the US and eventually more formally with Europe and NATO, it is hoped, Serbia is upgrading its air defenses (but not purchasing new military equipment) and switching away from a universal conscript basis of its male population.
Serbia is expected to allocate about 30m euros from the 2006-2007 budget to repair and modernise military aircraft and helicopters, Serbian Finance Minister Mladjan Dinkic said on Friday (1 September). The purchase of new fighter jets and helicopters is not planned. According to Dinkic, the government is determined to set up a fully professional army by 2010. (RTS, B92, Beta, Tanjug - 01/09/06)
"Professional army" indicates that only volunteers who submit to a new military doctrine (as against the extreme nationalism of the Serb army in the past), more in tune with intra-European harmonization and NATO cooperation is in the Serbia's future.

But the status of Kosovo remains the stumbling bloc for support of Serbia by all the principled advocates of democratic self-determination for oppressed majorities who find themselves trapped within oppressive states.
Those advocates have achieved a Kosovo-status summit consensus as of Sep1,2k6:
The Contact Group confirmed its original intention to reach a solution on Kosovo's status by the end of this year, Beta news agency reported on Friday (1 September). The six-member Contact Group also reiterated its full support for UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari in his role as a mediator. The UN envoy briefed the Contact Group about the current course of negotiations last week. The next meeting will be held in Sofia on 11 and 12 September. The UN Security Council will hold two separate sessions on Kosovo this month -- one discussing UNMIK's performance, the other dedicated to status talks.

Also Friday, German General Roland Kather took over command of KFOR, replacing Italian General Giuseppe Valotto. NATO South Wing Commander US Admiral Harry Ulrich said at the ceremony that NATO will not tolerate any violence or threat to Kosovo's security. (B92, Kosova Live, Beta - 01/09/06)
We await any outcome from the Sep11-12 meeting in Sofia, Bulgaria. And, we note the international community is pro-active in resolving Kosovo's status--besides the Contact Group, also the UN (UNMIK), UN Security Council, EU,
NATO (KFOR). I predict that Kosovo will be a free and independent state in a few years, will join NATO and the EU. Whether it will proceed Albania and/.or Turkey as the first Muslim-majority state to do so, remains to be seen.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:


Germany's Gen Roland Kather takes over KFOR command

Serb/Kosovo negotiators on decentralization fail to cover whole agenda

Memoriam: Netherlands: Dutch Prime Minister memorializes 9/11, after recent visit to nation's troops in Afghanistan

Here's an excerpt from the statement of Dutch Prime Minister Jan Pieter Balkenende, addressing a memorial assemblage observing the 5th Anniversary of 9/11 at the US Embassy in Den Haag, the Netherlands.

'9/11 was a day of death and destruction. But also a day of boundless courage', Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said at a commemoration of the attacks of 11 September 2001.

'It is with deep respect that we commemorate the victims who fell five years ago. Our thoughts are with all those who grieve for their loved ones', said Balkenende at the ceremony at the American Embassy.

'Words fail us in the face of their pain.' But, he added, 9/11 was also a day 'of passionate faith in the power of freedom. And of love that never fades.'
Europe > Netherlands
Terror


People all over the world have fallen victim to terrorism in recent years, Balkenende said. 'People from many different countries, of all possible backgrounds and beliefs. Terror affects us all. Terrorists preach hate and violence. Their house is built on fear. We preach freedom and tolerance. Our house is built on respect for others and on dialogue. Our foundation is stronger. The instinct for freedom can be threatened, but never destroyed.'

Common struggle
'We stand side by side in this struggle which unites all people of good will', he said. 'Let us remain resolute in striving for peace and security.'

The prime minister also referred to his recent visit to the Dutch troops in Afghanistan. 'They go resolute into danger to rebuild and bring security to a scarred country', he said. 'A country whose people long for a better life. That is how, side by side with your country and many others, we are sending a message of hope and confidence in the future.'

'Hate is not the answer', the prime minister said. 'The answer is openness. We must join together with all who believe in life, freedom and justice. With people of all cultures and creeds, all over the world.'

Source: Speech by Prime Minister

If you go to the Dutch govt's website, you can download the complete address in a PDF file.

Dr Balkenende is the leader of the largest party in the Dutch Paliament (Lower Champer), Christian Democratic Appeal, which governs in coalition with certain other political parties. The present cabinet is the third (called Balkenende III) this Christian politician has formed to govern the country.

-- Politicarp

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Mexico: Presidency: Mexico definitely has a new President, conservative Felipe Calderón, will he form a unity govt?

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After two months of postelection tumult in Mexico, Felipe Calderón is now officially the president-elect. But even though he won the vote (barely), he now needs to win legitimacy. Otherwise, the torn fabric of Mexico's young democracy may further fray.

Mr. Calderón, a Harvard-educated conservative who was once energy minister, must show the 3 out of 5 Mexicans who did not vote for him on July 2 that he can represent their interests.
North America > Mexico
He can do that with a unity cabinet made up of different party leaders - and with policies that reflect both poor and rich, north and south. He already backs a program that rewards rural parents with welfare if they keep their children in school.

Without such bridge building in a polarized nation, his ruling National Action Party may find it difficult to muster the popular support needed to quell the ongoing civil unrest promoted by his main opponent, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has called for nonviolent revolution ("To hell with the institutions," he declared Tuesday) rather than accept his narrow loss.
What cabinet position, what state ministry, could Calderón possibly offer to the Democratic Revolutionary Party's leader and almost-President? The latter has shown he is a force for disorder. How can he be absorbed into a unity govt. Good luck, President Calderón!

-- Politicarp

Further Research:


Terrorism: 9/11: In Memoriam

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refWrite

refWrite remembers 9:11

May all the dead rest in peace,

and their loved ones living heal in heart

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Calendar: Solemn Remembrance: USA President begins 24 hours of observances of 9/11's 5th anniversary

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USA President George W. Bush began the observances of the Fifth Anniversary of the attacks on America on September 11, 2001 (the day now known simply as 9/11), attacks by Islamofascist terrorists. Associated Press via CNN reports:

President Bush and his wife Laura stood in somber silence on Sunday after laying wreaths at the ground zero site where the twin towers of the World Trade Center once stood.

They honored the victims of the September 11 attacks on a tour that will take them to all three sites of devastation on the fifth anniversary of the attacks.

The Bushes set floral wreaths adrift in ponds of water that mark the former location of the north and south towers. They uttered no words, and walked hand-in-hand on the floor of the cavernous pit, after a slow procession down the long, flag-lined ramp from the street level four to five stories above.

The Bushes then attended a service of prayer and remembrance at nearby St. Paul's Chapel.

The 240-year-old Episcopal church, across the street from the site, escaped damage and became a center of refuge for weary rescue workers.

They were the first stops of nearly 24 hours of observances at the three sites where terrorists wrought death and destruction and transformed his presidency. Nearly 3,000 Americans were killed in the attacks.

On Monday, the anniversary, he was to visit with firefighters and other emergency workers at a firehouse in lower Manhattan; attend a ceremony at the field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, where one of the hijacked planes hurtled to the ground; and participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Pentagon.

He also was to speak to Americans during a prime-time TV address Monday night from the Oval Office.
-- Owlb, editor, refWrite

Further Info:


Lessons to be learned from 9/11: Educators divided
Trauma persists 5 years later

Calendar: Holiday: Grandparents Day is celebrated in some locales today

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"The impetus for a National Grandparents Day originated with Marian McQuade, a housewife in Fayette County, West Virginia. Her primary motivation was to champion the cause of lonely elderly in nursing homes. She also hoped to persuade grandchildren to tap the wisdom and heritage their grandparents could provide. USA President Jimmy Carter, in 1978, proclaimed that National Grandparents Day would be celebrated every year on the first Sunday after Labor Day. For 2006, Grandparents Day falls on September 10th."

So, I thawt I'd indicate the designation to refWrite readers not already acquainted with the observance.

I want personally to mention with thanksgiving to God, my grandparents. On the paternal side, I thank the Lord for Victoria and Joseph Gedraitis, and their four sons including my father, Alexander Gedraitis. He died at age 4o, when I was only 3+, and my brother only 6 months old. Due to the vicissitudes of family existence thru the Great Depression and into the WWII, I lost contact with the Gedraitis side of my family, but it had been restored in later years thru my cousin Anna Marie Gedraitis. She too is now gone to be with the Lord.

On the maternal side, I thank God for my grandparents Sue and Frank Balchunas. Frank died while I was a boy, and I was among the whole of our family members who visited him in his last days, laying abed and dying slowly of the painful death by Black Lung contracted in the mines of Mount Carmel, Pennsylvania.

Sue and Frank had three kids, including my mother, Ruth Eleanor Gedraitis. Grandmother Sue transmitted the Christian faith to her side of the family, and she was a lifelong active member of the Congregationalist Church of Mount Carmel. My mother and I are indebted for Sue's witness to Jesus Christ as our personal Saviour and Lord. In myriad ways, she imparted the values that I still try to live by.

Now, my mother, sister, and brother are all gone as well. And on Grandparents Day, as an old man of 66 years, I recall the generations of my descent, with fondness and hope for those who have gone before me.

-- Albert Gedraitis, publisher, refWrite blogs

UK: Diplomacy: Tony Blair only days after his end-of-office forecast, visits Olmert in Israel, today Abbas in West Bank

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Just days after UK Prime Minister Tony Blair had lawnched a crisis in his own Labour Party by announcing if not a time-table, then at least a forecast, even a foreshadowing of his resignation as the party's Leader within a year, just after that apparently-continuing all-hell-broke-loose event, the PM now has undertaken a major diplomatic initiative in the MidEast. According to Reuters via a BBC dispatch today, "Blair to meet Palestinian leader," the Prime Minister wants to stay in office until some definitive positive step is achieved to bring Israel and Palestinians closer to an accord, at least to serious negotiations toward the vaunted two-state solution. He also wants to see Lebanon stabilized under the newly-expanded UN forces in the border zone between Israel and Lebanon in the South, and -- according to yesterday's news -- a UN presence along the border between Lebanon and Syria to the east.

Britain > MidEast & Northern Ireland diplomacy

In talking with Ohlmert and Abbas, Blair showed no sign of breaking ranks with the European Union policy of non-negotiation with Palestine's Hamas govt under the prevailing conditions of the latter's lack of recognition of Israel's r+t to exist. Hamas still advocates iranianism toward Israel, altho the Palos are not in Iran's grip as of yet.

Mr Olmert said he was ready to begin talks with Mr Abbas to advance peace efforts.

The EU has insisted Hamas recognises Israel's right to exist before there can be any dialogue with the administration.

But Hamas argues the real problem has been Mr Blair's attachment to the US, which it says views the Middle East from Israel's perspective.

BBC news correspondent Alan Johnston said Mr Abbas's camp would "welcome Mr Blair's efforts to re-energise the peace process".

But he added: "There is a widespread contempt for Mr Blair among Palestinians."
With a good section of his parliamentary caucus at Blair's throat and with the antiwar movement, within and without the party, poodlizing him; the contempt among Palos is nothing special. However, the same spirit also exists, for instance, in wide sections of loyalists to the British Crown in Northern Ireland where it has been revealed that the Irish Republican Army maintains its command and discipline structure, despite the Blair deal that supposedly was to dissolve the IRA completely into peaceful political participation in Sinn Fein. And hence presumably into a restored parliamentary democracy in Northern Ireland ("devolution"). The IRA argues that retention of command and discipline over its members actually leads to a greater promise of peace for the future in Ulster, and a commission has confirmed that. But can either be trusted among all sides? It seems most Protestants doubt this furthering of the IRA's longevity, to their core, doubting Blair's diplomacy in regard to their interests as well. An opinion piece in Belfast Telegraph, "Northern Ireland and a lame-duck PM" (Sep7,2k6) summarizes:
...[A]fter 10 years in Downing Street, he would have to admit that the handling of his departure timetable has been disastrous. His dwindling number of supporters feel let down, his enemies are jubilant, his party is suffering and any influence he and the country have in the world is declining fast.
While the PM is still hard at work on the diplomatic front in the MidEast, what about the diplomatic front at home?
...[A]fter 10 years in Downing Street, [Blair] would have to admit that the handling of his departure timetable has been disastrous. His dwindling number of supporters feel let down, his enemies are jubilant, his party is suffering and any influence he and the country have in the world is declining fast.

There are repercussions even in Northern Ireland. Dates are being fixed for another high-powered summit in Scotland to conclude a deal on devolution before November 24, but already it has lost some momentum. Since Mr Blair will be gone in a few months' time, politicians will be more interested in the policies of his successor -- Gordon Brown or A.N. Other.
On this side of the Atlantic, Blair is very much more appreciated. Tho the antiwar movement deprecates him here too, yet he remains appreciated perhaps more than anywhere else in the world. He has presided over Britain's political course in quite difficult times. Only when his replacement is in power, will we be able to evaluate comparatively what he contributed over the span of his time in office. His record in Northern Ireland will remain decisively non-stellar. One may doubt, however, that anyone could have done better from Downing Street, but better has been what was and is needed.

-- Politicarp

Further Info

Former Blairite Minister resigns to force Blair resignation
Blair calls for stop of Labour Party infiting

Saturday, September 09, 2006

War: Retracing Israel's steps: Blogger asks, Did Israel give Lebanon full and fair warning of attacks?

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Britain-based blogger Celal's Icarus Redeemed carried the following entry on Sep8,2k6, replete with the personal circumstance of discovering an old news item dated back to Jun2,2k6, some 6 weeks before the outbreak of the Hizbullah War caused by the political vacuum created by the uxurious and decrepit Lebanese state at the time. In the quotation the bracketted matter is mostly Celal's, but I interspered two of my own items, signed "Politicarp" and then just "P".

Did Israel give Lebanon full and fair warning of attacks?

I keep a stack of old newsprint beside my bed to use to catch my whiskers when I trim my beard.

The other day, as I was tearing off the top few pages of newsprint for this purpose, I casually looked down and the article caught my eye. It happened to be the June 2nd edition of Jewish Chronicle. [This is Britain's leading Jewish newspaper, a 164-year-old enterprise; its website is accessible only by paid subscription. - Politicarp]

The news report was written by Joseph Millis, Foreign Editor of the paper. It's on page 9 . As I quote from that article bear in mind that the Israeli onslaught on Lebanon did not happen until July 12th:

Israel this week warned Lebanon that the country would pay a "heavy price" if it allowed Hezbollah to continue to operate from the south of the country. The warning -- issued by a top military commander -- came after Israel responded with air strikes to a Katyusha rocket attack across the border on Sunday. (...) One of the rockets hit an Israeli Air Force installation on Mount Meiron, near Safed.
MidEast > Israel / Lebanon
"We hope the message from our response [on Sunday] was understood correctly by the other side", Brigadier-General Gal Hirsch, the commander of the Galilee division, told reporters on Monday. (....) The fighting ended on Sunday afternoon after the Lebanese government requested via the UN a cease-fire with Israel. On Monday, senior officers revealed that prior to the Lebanese cease-fire request, Israel had threatened to bomb additional parts of Lebanon, including Beirut, and not just the southern part of the country controlled by Hezbollah. "We told them that we would expand our firing to other parts of the country", one senior officer told Jerusalem Post. "they understood very well what we meant". Last Wednesday - the [sixth] anniversary [of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon] - the pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud [a Christian! - P] praised Hezbollah, saying it should "stay[ in place] until a just and comprehensive peace is achieved in the region". However, Lebanese Christian, Sunni Muslim and Druze groups were less enthusiastic about Hezbollah. "Firing rockets from South Lebanon is a violation of Lebanese sovereignty," the anti-Syrian March 14 Forces executive committee said in a statement. "There is a serious security vacuum in the area due to the lack of the government's control." [The group's] leaders include Sa'ad Hariri, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, and Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader.
Thanks, Celal, for that timely repristination of a seemingly lost detail, as much of the mainstream press works already at historical revisionism, burying critical facts to one-sidedly blame Israel and the Israeli Defense Forces for "over-reacting" and "disproportionality." In the meantime, Hizbullah's chief honcho has acknowledged that his war provocations were a colossal mistake.

By the way, Celal also blogs in Turkish, Laik Türkiye.

-- Politicarp, rW1 political columnist

Further Research:

Israel's June 2 warning to Lebanon - Google Search (Sep8,2k6)
Lebanon failure to respond to June 2 warning

Friday, September 08, 2006

Juridics: China: Law scholars 100-strong in China call for ending local courts power to impose death penalty

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A report by Yang Ming,"Call for China's Supreme Court to curb death powers of local courts" (Sep4,2k6) on Voice of America via Epoch Times, details the formation of a group of signatories to what amounts to a formal public petition by legal scholars and experienced lawyers aware of common practices in China's lower level courts.

Washington D.C.— One hundred Chinese legal experts have called on the Supreme Court of the People's Republic of China, to immediately revoke the power of local courts to approve the death penalty. This may reduce injustice resulting from local courts abusing the use of the death penalty and misinterpreting the legal standard of the death penalty criterion. Lower levels have partial rights at the moment, empowering them to approve the death penalty. A seminar, entitled "One Hundred Well-Known Experts, Scholars and Veteran Attorneys Request the Supreme Court to Immediately Revoke The Power To Approve The Death Penalty", was held by a well-known Beijing Chen Yueqin Law Firm on August 30th in Beijing. Many attended the seminar including the famous attorney Zhang Sizhi, the executive Dean of Beijing's Normal University of Criminal Law and Scientific Research Institute, Dr. Lu Jianping, Chen Yueqin, founder of the Beijing Chen Yueqin Law Firm and others. One hundred people signed the appeal letter.
The public petition to the Supreme Court seems somewhat unusual to Western eyes, if no actual case is being presented. However, judiciaries around the world vary considerably in standard practice, so this may not be so unprecendented a move as it appears.

A certain urgency obtains at present, according to reporter Yang Ming. "Attorney Zhang Sizhi, who is called "The Chinese Attorney's Conscience" ... urged the Supreme Court to revoke the local courts' power before October 1; otherwise there will be a couple of hundred people executed between October and December."

Asia > China

While the death penalty is said to be widely abused by lower courts, giving China one of the h+est capital-punishment rates in the world, there is another issue involved. That issue, when looked at from the standpoint of uniformity of penalties thru-out the vast population and regions of China, suggesting a within-China legal universalism, there are disparities. However, evaluated from the standpoint of regional differentials (regionalism) or local differentials (localism), such as the variations in death-penalty laws and practices from state to state in the USA which amounts to regionalism, as compared to Canada which is universalist regarding the lack of any death-penalty provision whatsoever, still it would seem that China is in a legal tangle here. It seems from Yang Ming's article that neither universalism, regionalism, or localism actually function as strict criteria. The article seems to say that judgments and applciations of the death penality are episodic and subject to arbitrariness when local courts make a decsion in one case, as compared to another.

Death penalty abused, and crimes judged differently

Attorney Chen Yueqin said, local courts have abused the death penalty, and how the criterion of the death penalty is applied, differs severely, which infringes upon citizens' rights. She said, "Wang Wenda from Lishui, Zhejiang Province was sentenced to death because of raping a prostitute. Although there was no one severely injured or killed, he was sentenced to death and executed immediately by the Zhejiang Provincial People's Supreme Court. However, the same type of case in which Lang Jianhao robbed a massage girl, the sentence was only 13 years of imprisonment. Chen Yueqin pointed out that similar criminals in different areas may have totally different fates. This brings to light how local courts seem to have different criteria for the death penalty. The degree of abuse the use of the death penalty is shocking, she said.

Chen Yueqing said that they requested the Supreme Court to immediately revoke the rights of local courts to approve the death penalty, because life is precious and people cannot return to life after death. She said, "If the Supreme Court doesn't revoke the rights of local courts approving the death penalty, then more people like Wang Wenda who originally would not be killed may disappear in front of our eyes."
Overall, the public petition of the 100 legal scholars and experienced attorneys, a "call" directed to China's Supreme Court is a very good thing. It may lead to the solution to the historic problem of powers of courts at various levels, and thus of the appeal process from one level to another. refWrite will try to keep an eye on this theme for further clarification in future.

-- Owlb