Canada: Fed Election:Countdown to Vote Day (Monday) - Tories maintain 7% lead for at least a minority govt, Greens total 6.1%

“CPAC-SES tracking shows the Conservatives with a seven point lead. Conservative support stands at 36.2% followed by the Liberals at 29.4%, the NDP at 17.3%, the BQ at 11.0%, and the Green Party at 6.1% nationally. Thirty-one percent of Canadians chose Stephen Harper as the leader who would make the best Prime Minister compared to 22% for Paul Martin.” - Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.

NiK Nanos of SES research polling released the following info in the last hour:

SES will be polling on Sunday and releasing the last poll of the election Sunday night. Our objective is to post the results between 6pm and 7pm EST after we survey Canadians Sunday afternoon.

Polling January 18 to 20, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.

All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.

Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 20, 2006, N=1,057 decided voters)
CP 36.2% (+7)
LIB 29.4% (-8)
NDP 17.3% (+2)
BQ 11.0% (-3)
GP 6.1 (+1)
*12.0% of Canadians were undecided (-4)

In Quebec
BQ 44% (-6)
CP 27% (+18)
LIB 18% (-12)
NDP 9% (+3)
GP 3% (-3)
*13% of Quebecers were undecided (+2)

Outside Quebec
CP 39% (+2)
LIB 33% (-6)
NDP 20% (+1)
GP 7% (+2)
*12% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-5)

In Ontario
CP 35% (+2)
LIB 39% (-4)
NDP 17% (-1)
GP 8% (+4)
*14% of Ontarians were undecided (-6)

Best PM
Harper 31% (+10)
Martin 22% (-7)
Layton 16% (+2)
Unsure 14% (-3)
None 9% (-3)
Duceppe 6% (NC)
Harris 3% (+1)

Leadership Index [Daily composite of the Leaders’ Trust, Competence and Vision]*
Martin 63 (+5)
Harper 75 (NC)
Layton 44 (-15)
Duceppe 23 (-2)
Harris 8 (-2)
* Change for this measure is from yesterday’s composite score.

On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking chart, regional breakdowns and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.

For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC) in accordance with the Elections Act. Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking.