Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Canada: Politics: Harper vote-crest wanes to -2, if you don't mind clicking up a Gay site where I first saw news, hour ago

I invite readers who don't mind, to clickup a Gay news source, 365 Gay.com to peruse both the news item reported and some details of where, and when, and by whom.

The reporter, Martin O'Hanlon a self-acknowledged Liberal who says "my heart doesn't sing" at the small number of losses by Stephen Harper's Conservatives - in the measurement of voters intentions and opinions to date regarding the parties and their leaders. One of them will form the new government, either on a minority or a majority. At best, I would guess that Harper could win a slim majority, and that means a Cabinet stretched quite thin (for instance of the myriad of consequences that accrue from such an anticipated fact). Aside from all such speculation, Harper whose momentum may have stalled statistically and apparently dropped by a small degree, he could sustain his lead position losing a point or two more. There are five days left till Voting Day, and the advance voting is up 25% in comparison with the 2004. I think it all turns on how effective the nauseating demonize-Harper Liberal campaign TV ads are. The anti-American Liberal saturation ad campaign is just one factor, but increasingly the more important one, as the countdown ticks to Victory Day. I think the Victory will be Harper's, but now the question is: minority government or slim-majority or leeway-majority?

According to O'Hanlon, "Previous polls had the Tories leading nationally by up to 13 points." So, O'Hanlon contrives a -3 statistical event because now the Tories are leading by "only" 10 percentage points, but that latter datum is a fact accorded credibility by only one polling company, Decima - a wonderful name for a polling company if it measures down to the decimal point, but also it's just two letters short of "decimate." A hint from the corporation's darkside, bent on the decimation of Harper by putting its statistical hand on the measurement scale? Ho! Ho! Ho!

O'Hanlon, a Liberal disappointed that Harper apparently fell so few points, while the reporter is writing for Canadian Press shortly after its CP online publication pops up, properly bylined in 365Gay.com. And it gives this description (with several misleading elements, according to my way evaluating the statistical categories of persons down to the decimal!):

The results came amid a flurry of warnings about what a Conservative government would do to Canada.

Environmentalists, economists, natives, victims groups, law professors and even an abortion doctor have joined Martin in a last-ditch effort to stop Stephen Harper.

Martin pressed on with his Hammer Harper tour Tuesday in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. He warned that the Tory leader would ``walk away'' from social services and ``turn back the clock'' by breaking promises to Canadians and the world.


Boing! Harper is not going to walk away from social services, and to assert so is to miss the style of governance to which Harper is committed. He is going to be incremental in applying his central goal of Accountablity, not just for the House of Commons and the Government itself in answer to the duplicitous till-robbing Chretian-Martin Liberal reigns. As to breaking promises - that is, Liberal false promises - as a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, Canada has not met its promises, nor kept its word. Canada, under Liberal signing and Liberal feigning, is actually a worse polluter, increasingly so, than is the USA. In other words, a new government is perfectly free to undo Canada's signature from the Kyoto Protocols should the government of the day evaluate those Protocols as having been signed in bad faith. They are clearly nothing more than a false promise by a Finance Minister (Paul Martin then) who knew the dollars-and-cents of the falsity. We have to fite for the world's air in another way than Kyoto (I wold argue these days), and in my opinion it involves a government which can question the oil-fuelled vehicle. Martin didn't have the courage to so question. Nor will Harper. Nor does Layton. Nor Duceppe. Maybe the Greens, but they too are down in the polls, apparently having crested a week ago at 7%; now voters of once-expressed-Green intentions are eroding in favour of all three of the other parties. But the NDP's vote has eroded slightly to the Liberals.

The tick of the countdown gets louder and louder, and the Canadian election is being monitored in the US and around the world, as never before. - Owlb

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