Egypt's Mubarak grants multi-party elections

[UPDATED: see bottom link and comment.] The President of the world's most populous Arab State, Egypt, yesterday made the startling announcement that he would grant for the first-time multi-party elections, of course with certain restrictions. The country supported by USA$2Billion annually has many groupings ready for this unprecendented opportunity, even on President Hosni Mubarak's terms, to enter the fray, set for sometime this coming September. But the Sept 2005 Egyptian elections for President are vert unlikely to include the readiest grouping of them all, the Muslim Brotherhood in which many extremists nest, even perhaps run things, supported by mosque-preachers influenced by Sunni -Saudi Wahhabism and its branch that requires jihadist action of all its devotees, Salafism.

To concentrate on the two poles of Egyptian politics - Murbarak vs the Salafi-led Muslim Brotherhood - does not do justice to the situation, but has the virtue of singling out the parameters in which the legal opposition will emerge to contest one another for the office of President. I have little idea so far regarding the Egyptian parliament - whether it be appointed, partly apppointed and partly elected, elected by Mubarak's National Democratic Party, or what?. There's further homework to do on this development. Before the actual election, a referendum will be held first to approve the proposal. That too will be of historic proportions, trusting that public approval will be extremely high. As in the case of Iraq, we will soon be able to read of the enabling and restricting legislation for this astounding and outstanding move; we will learn of known groups readying themselves to function as official political parties; and we will see the emergence of new parties, duly registering themselves, and presenting their lists of candidates. The Muslim Brotherhood, for all we yet know, just may be allowed to put forward a candidate, and they've hinted they may do so - perhaps even if they are refused a place on the ballot!

The situation in Egypt is very complex. In the past, open oppositionists with sterling democratic credentials have often ended-up in jail for a period. Besides the intense ongoing pressure from the populace thirsting for the democratizing of the Egyptian State, it was the recent jailing of one of the brightest and most learned of these opposition figures, Ayman Nour, that triggered Mubarak's about face. He had been anticipating the arrival of reps to the G8 Summit, including US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice. But, when Condi heard about the jailing of Nour, she cancelled her trip and informed Mubarak and the world press that this was not the right time for her arrrival on the scene and luncheon along the Nile, thereby appearing to endorse Egypt's "democratic deficit." Maybe some other time, when conditions prove more approrpriate, she said. On the other hand, Paul Martin didn't see any particular problem for Canada in going ahead with the meet ... or was that in regard to China? Anyway, I vaguely recall another of PM PM's two-show on this matter as well as a whole string of others.

Was it more than 48 hours later, or less than 48? In any case, Mubarak quickly reversed the jailing of Nour, set him free, and astounded his own followers - who expressed sheer delight! - by announcing the opportunity of Egypt's people to vote in the first real election they've ever experienced. (In previous cases, Murbarak was the only candidate and a voter selected "Yes" or "No" on the ballot.) Now there will be arguments about future policy, now there will be crowds assembled to listen to candidates other than the present government's favoured ones. There will be unsavory incidents, I would wager (were I a gamblin' man).

Egypt joins the growing list kept by observers of the Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy: Elections in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, new popular demands for Syria to get out, and for free elections in Lebanon, even the staggered series of all-male municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, more votes scheduled in Kuwait. Have I left out any Arab State that should be on this list? Have I gotten any details wrong? Suddenly, it's just harder to keep track of these opening salvos in a long and difficult process which could possibly engage all of Araby before regular elections everywhere in the Middle East and the Arab world become just the usual course of thtings. - Owlb

The Egypt Blog. This blog is the work of Mamduh Shawqi of Heliopolis, Egypt; watch it for breaking news and Mamduh's response as events proceed. Praying that the democratization and the flourishing of justice may go forward everywhere and for everyone in the land of the Nile!

UPDATE: Legal Steps and Schedule Outlined. osni Mubarak, President of Egypt, hoas outlined his plan in greater detail regarding the steps to be taken before the September election. He has already served 4 terms, but seems interested in serving at least one more and going up against the contenders. Parliament is expected to have the necessary legislation in place in two weeks, taking us into the middle of March. Then a national referendum on the proposed new-style "direct, secret balloting" will take place in May. After the results are counted on the referendum, and hopefully the result clearns the way, the national campaign will begin and Mubarak will go to the hustings. The actual Presidential vote will take place in September. - Owlb, with thanks to Politicarp's Political Events