Nuclear Politics: Iran: Nobel Prize recipient in Oslo says world 'losing patience with Iran'

Rookmaker Club geostrategic analysis

In Oslo, Norway, in conjunction with his award of the Nobel Prize for Peace, Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), according to a recent BBC report, states the obvious: "The world is losing patience with Iran" - losing patience with Iran's nuclear ambitions and warlike rhetoric, to be precise. The present President of Iran, Mohammed Ahmadinejad, has had the gall and hubris to combine his country's sought-for development of weapons-cabable nuclear facilities with a machine-gun rapid-fire public delivery of extremist Iranian fantasies of military conquest and the establishing of the new World Caliphate, when the "Hidden Imam" discloses himself and appears in Tehran to take control of the destinities of humankind.

As for the EU3 - France (Chirac's De Villepin government shaken by the month of riots by lower-class Muslim youth), Germany (involved in a complex governmental change headed by Christian Democrat Angela Merkel), and Britain (under the redoubtable leadership of Tony Blair) - their EU3 negotiators, short of all-out UN Security Council backup, have been talked into a stalemate. The key to the stalemate is not the reality directly of Iran's nuclear war preparations, but the latter's constant talk of becoming a world power thru military means,that has gotten "the world"'s proverbial goat. Iran's stance undermines the first protocol of "the world"'s elite diplomatic and military corps. Even more important than Don't rock the boat, is the rule Don't mock the EU-IAEA-UN officianandos. Such verbal insult is insult where it hurts, as was demonstrated when US Secretary of Defense chided the French and Germans in an earlier day as being "the Old Europe."

Another BBC report, by Paul Reynolds, scoops the poop:

Iran is still managing to avoid being reported to the Security Council over its nuclear activity and the diplomatic entanglement is likely to continue for some time to come. ¶Behind the scenes there is an intense struggle going on between an Iran determined to preserve its right to develop a nuclear fuel cycle and a West trying to stop it. The outcome is in doubt. ¶Iran is nervous about going too far, too fast, in case it is referred to the Security Council and told to stop. [Failure to stop would ostensibly bring trade sanctions. - P] ¶The West, however, lacks the diplomatic muscle to bring the weight of the [UN Security] Council to bear. ¶Now a new major player has come onto the stage - Russia [in competition to the negotiators of the EU3]. And this entry will prolong the whole drama.

The key gambit of the Russkies turns on their proposal of a compromise, the conditions of which are ruffly these:

The compromise would let Iran do more or less what it can at present - convert uranium ore first into refined "yellowcake" and then into a gas ready for the enrichment process [necessary to making airborne nuclear bombs]. The actual enrichment, however, would be carried out in Russia at a plant to be constructed for the purpose. ¶So now Russia and Iran will deal face to face on this issue.

Russia and Iran will wrestle thru to a "compromise," while neither the EU3 (France, Germany, Britain) nor the EU more largely, nor the IAEA, nor the Security Council of the UN can do anyting but standby and dither - along with Israel, the US, and every other nation threatended by Iraq's future possession of nuclear bombs.

In the meantime, Russia has confirmed a side arrangement with Iran to sell it 29 TOR M1 missiles, which Russian defence Minister Sergei Ivanov claimed were for defensive purposes only (but can he guarantee it?).

In Moscow BBC's Steven Rosenberg

says the sale is not banned under any treaty, but it has already been criticised by the United States and Israel. ¶Earlier, Iran announced that it was planning to build a second nuclear power plant in the south of the country, despite coming under pressure from the international community over its nuclear ambitions. ¶Iran has previously said it wants to build 20 nuclear power stations in as many years. ¶Earlier this year the Russian government faced criticism from the West when Moscow agreed to sell missile systems to Syria.

From the standpoint of the half-Christian American Empire and its centuries' long friendship with its Jewish population, now entailing a further friendship with the Jewish State of Israel, Russia must be seen geostrategically to be aiding and abetting two enemies of peace in the Middle East - Iran and its client state, Syria, along with their Hizbullah terorrist surrogates in Lebanon. - Politicarp

The foregoing follows the Ledeen analysis. If you are of Christian-democratic convictions, and neo-Constantian on the issue of war, you may want to join in the Rookmaker Club's private discussions on the dotMac groupsite for developing Christian reflection on geostrategic analysis, focused for the next few months on the MidEast analysis by Michael Ledeen. Write Politicarp's email "at" the usual "mac dot com." We're looking for 3 or 4 more members.