Israel & Palestine: Simultaneous election campaigns: Two countries impact each other's internal political jockeying

A shootout in Jenin in the territory of the Palestinian Authority, resulted in the death of Zayid Khalil Moussa, head of Hamas' s terrorist wing in Jenin. Moussa was a commander in the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, affiliated to the larger Hamas multi-program organization which is currently fielding candidates in the upcoming Palestinian Parliamentary elections in January. The model for the relation of the two bodies is ruffly comparable to the organizational sectioning off of Sinn Fein, the political wing of the IRA; and the IRA military wing proper.

I got news of Moussa being put out of his misery by the Israelis today, at 15:71 GMT. About forty-five minutes later, I got the further word: the office of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, thru spokesman Raanan Gissin, said Israel "is concerned that the Palestinian militant group Hamas might gain power. " Hamas to become the governing party of the Palestinian Authority?

Israel enters PA territory, knocks off Moussa. Israel continues intense ongoing analyses about the growing strength of Hamas, which has won lots of seats on municipal councils not so long ago. And now Hamas seems to be on the verge of electing up to a possible one-third of the members of the new Palestinian Parliament on January 23, a development that could well nullify Israel's Barghouti Strategy against the Oldsters (not so much Abbas, but everyone around him, save one or two).

You can't help but sense that Sharon's government, he being up for re-election and favoured to replace himself when his new party "The Future" re-appoints "King Ariel" as Prime Minister against the new head of Likud, Binjamin Natanyahu (but as I write this very sentence I discover that earlier in the day, StrategyPages has predicted Sharon will lose on a no-confidence motion put up against him in the new Knesset; and that Netanyahu will be re-appointed Prime Minister, representing Likud): Sharon's government, I sense, is afraid of Hamas. If so, Netanyahu will smell it and wil go after Sharon, tooth and nail, during the election campaign in Israel. Anyone taking bets on this?

But what's going-on in the Palestinian Authority is an all-out competition within Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah Party, inherited from Yasser Arafat, and now busting apart into factions where the Young are contesting against the Old Party authorities. The Young want their people in a larger share of the candidate-slots that Fatah puts forward to be included on the ballot. Since the vote has already been postponed from July to January, a second delay in the elections would probably work against Fatah, against both its major factions.

Israel, however, has now threatened to postpone the Palestinian electionsfrom taking place in Jerusalem. (How they would accomplish this, were Abbas and the PA to demur, I can't imagine.) The Israelis, whether following Sharon or Netanyahu or the Labour Party leader Amir Peretz, "a fiery unionist," none of them like the head of steam that Hamas candidates have built up in campaigning against Fatah, the presently-divided Fatah. So, we must expect that there is heavy negotiating going on between Fatah's Young and Old. I think the Young will get more spots on the official Fatah candidate's list. Should these eventualities come about, then Marwan Barghouti, the leader of the Young, will have much more power in the Fatah party.

One should mention, however, that Barghouti is serving multiple life-terms in an Israeli prison. Some say that the Israeli's have turned Barghouti to serve their own purposes, and that he is actually their candidate. Suggesting thereby that the Young Fatah faction is led by an Israeli puppet, and is displacing the Fatah Old. That sounds like a worthy effort on the part of Israeli intelligence, and it sounds too like a Graham Greene novel.

I'll wait and see, for a while - before I draw any conclusions, indeed before I have any sense of where all this may be going. Two elections being fawt out in the neighbouring contries. at the same time. I have the impression the Israelis will vote first (better check out this detail!). Then, the Palestinians will vote on January 23. In any event, fascinating. - Politicarp