Canada: Latest political polls: Conservative standings in two SES polls

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Nik Nanos, the well-known pollster who runs SES Research and one of whose clients is Canadian political-news TV channel CPAC has published two polls in recent days. The first results were emailed Aug25,2k6. The second results were sentout on Aug27,2k6, "Comfort with a Federal Tory Majority." First, here's the first, "Federal support mirrors last election." Pollster Nanos informs us:

Although we did see some positive movement for the Tories [across Canada] when they focused on their five priorities – [but] the new focus on foreign policy (code – Middle East) has effectively changed the channel away from domestic issues. Remember - the last election was won by the Harper Tories on a platform of change, cleaning up government and fiscal issues. Apart from the Middle East issue, the political environment in the Fall will likely feature some sort of revisitation of the same sex marriage issue and the Liberal leadership process.

Of note is the fact that since the last quarterly poll the Conservatives are down nine points in Quebec (down from 35% to 26%). The Bloc Québécois are up five points to 42% and the Liberals are up three points to 22%. The softening of support in Quebec this quarter should be worrisome for the Tories.

As the numbers from our latest national survey came in Wednesday evening, this pollster had a serious case of déjà vu – pretty well exactly the same numbers as the last federal election [in January 2005].

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Decided Canadian Voters
(N=886, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)

Conservatives 36% (-2)
Liberals 30% (+2)
NDP 18% (-1)
Bloc Quebecois 11% (+2)
Green 5% (-1)

Undecided 12% (+4)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com, and are available there in PDF format for download.

Any use of the poll should identify the source as the SES Research National Survey.

North America > Canada

In the second poll being cited, emailed today by SES, Nanos explores the growth of "comfort," short of support to the same extent, for a Conservative majority.

Comfort with a Federal Tory Majority

SES surveyed Canadians on their level of comfort with a Federal Tory majority. Overall, Canadians are divided. On a measure such as this, however, the Conservatives realistically only need a minority – the target threshold for the Conservatives should be about 40% comfortable (not there yet). Of note, four of ten committed Liberal voters are comfortable or somewhat comfortable with the prospect of a majority Conservative government.

Another factor in the equation is that 50% of committed NDP supporters are uncomfortable with the idea of a Conservative majority. This may be a precursor to future strategic voting in favour of the Liberals [on the part of some otherwise NDP voters]. Also of note, 46% of Canadians believe that the Harper-led Conservative government met expectations (11% exceeded expectations, 34% not met expectations).

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Decided Canadian Voters
(N=1003, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

Question: As you may know, the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper is a minority government. Based on what you know and have seen about Stephen Harper and the Conservative government record so far, would you be comfortable, somewhat comfortable, somewhat uncomfortable or uncomfortable with the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives potentially winning the next election and forming a majority government?

Comfortable (33%) – (19% of Liberals are comfortable)
Somewhat comfortable (19%) – (21% of Liberals are somewhat comfortable)
Somewhat uncomfortable (16%)
Uncomfortable (29%) – (50% of New Democrats are uncomfortable)
Unsure (4%)

Question: Would you say that the Stephen Harper- led Conservative government has exceeded your expectations, met your expectations or not met your expectations?

Exceeded Expectations (11%)
Met Expectations (46%)
Not met expectations (34%) – (45% of Quebecers say the Conservatives have not met expectations)
Unsure (9%)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com [PDF available at site].

Any use of the poll should identify the source as the SES Research National Survey.

Other sources inform us that Jack Layton's leadership of the NDP is out of favour with the old class-warfare NDP-left, plus some peacenickies, as well as being out of favour with that other house of refuge for disaffected previous NDP supporters, the newly-aggressive Green Party. These two elements must be added to what Nanos pinpoints as probable NDP desertions to the Libs in the name of "strategic voting." With the Nanos Effect, that's already three problems for the NDP, but there's yet a doubled-edged fourth which may bring some former Liberal Jews to the NDP, while sending even more Jews from the Liberal Party toward the Conservatives, according to the Leclerc Effect of shifts of voting patterns and political-party of support of Jews dissatisfied with their previous memberships in the Liberal Party, unhappy due to the Libs' weak stance toward Israel (at the same time, Conservatives stand to lose some of the Arab and Muslim vote, says Leclerc, suggesting there's a trade-off of votes that all parties must consider on foreign-policy stances). All these factors combined could spell trouble for Layton's efforts to maintain the present size of his caucus in Parliament, altho the old lefties (including former labour-union partisans) nickies may feel they have no other place to go.