Breaking news: Lebanon ceasefire draft: US & France agree, UN SecCoun called to session today

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BREAKING News > Lebanon ceasefire plan agreed by US and France

The constantly updated MarketWatch, an online business news-source, presently features an item by reporter Rex Crum (Aug5,2k6: latest update 11:40 AM ET). The whole piece is cast in terms of internal UN Security Council politics. So while there is agreement between two leading veto-holders on the UN SC, there's the prospect of other members of that body like China and Russia coming forward with yet other proposals (that pattern has been the case for some time now in the SC).

The drafting and negotiating for the US was conducted by its Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, who is up for renomination by Prez Bush to the post regarding which Senate Dems had previously obstructed confirmation. The renewal deadline is imminent, but Prez Bush could renominate Bolton when the Senate goes on vacation as it sincerely desires to do as soon as possible. Primary fites are facing leading Senators who seek reelection in November, but miss win battles this summer in the respective party of each -- in order to become its candidate. Many political-timing factors affect the UN parlaying, not least of all in France.

The United States and France said Saturday they have reached agreement on a draft resolution [to be submitted to] the [full] United Nations Security Council aimed at bringing an end to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah guerillas in Lebanon.

John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., and the office for French President Jacques Chirac, said the long-anticipated agreement had been reached. The full 15-member Security Council is set to meet on Saturday to discuss the resolution, with a goal of adopting the measure within the next few days.

United Nations > Security Council:
United Nations International Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)

The resolution calls for a "full cessation" of the fighting that has engulfed Lebanon for nearly a month, but allows Israel to attack the Hezbollah miltia if it launches rockets or other attacks against Israel.

My guess would be that this provision will be hotly contested by China and Russia. For one thing, the rez implicitly recognizes that Hisbullah started the hostilities over and above its usual missile bombardment of northern Israel from the UNIFIL-zone) of southern Lebanon (UNIFIL was more a protection and cover-up for Hizbullah). -- But then additionally Hizbullah began kidnapping Israeli defense personnel from over the border.

The resolution's implicit recognition of the origins of the war in the fevered brain of Nasrallah (the terrorist org's boss) and his bosses in Iran (who sponsor and have acknowledged supplying heavy-duty missiles to Hizbullah) is a recognition that will rattle China especially, which is an ally of Iran (China needs the oil). Russia doesn't need the oil, but is playing for a permanent collegial role with China in world politics, hoping to restore a modified version of the old Soviet-era bipolar worldpolitical system. But in this, so far, Russia (which shares a border with China) is the junior partner.

The conflict began in July after Hezbollah fighters kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and demanded the release of Hezbollah prisoners held by Israel.

Bolton said there would soon be a second resolution that would try to develop a framework for a peace process between Israel and Hezbollah, and set up an international peacekeeping force to deploy in Lebanon.

Israel has said it won't stop its offensive until the peacekeeping force is in place, while Hezbollah says all Israeli troops must leave Lebanon before it will agree to a cease-fire.So, there you have it. The resolution-making, no matter how diplomatically ingenious the negotiating of Bolton and Chirac's man, will yet have to filter thru the Security Council (where China and Russia as permanent members each hold veto powers). If and when something is adopted "in the next few days", nevertheless Hisbullah, Israel, or both -- after the lapse of these further now-guaranteed days of war in Lebanon (while the UNSC palavers) -- may still reject whatever text comes from Manhatten.

Above, all the interspersed comments, square brackets and underlines are mine.

-- Politicarp

For refWrite's overall principial position on the war, see the "Horowitz vs Hermann" section of the Aug1,2k6 refWrite page1 post