Saturday, October 23, 2010

PoliticsUSA: Women's vote: Nov 2 Fed election will have women trending away from Dems toward Rplcns

Apparently a major trend has emerged in the current Federal election campaigns, a trend that evidences a shift of women voters from Dems to the Republicans.  In 2k06 women voted for Democrats nearly 60%, with Rpblcns trailing with only 36%.  This year with two weeks remaining before the major part of the balloting occurs (early voting with absentee ballots are also trending upwards this year), women are going 49% for the Republicans but only 46 percentage points for the Democrats. The USA Today chart is by Julie Snider; the text of the noozreport is by Mimi Hall (no date given).

As Snider's chart indicates, the net gains of the Repubs since 2k10 until now is 13%, while the net loss for Dems in the same period is 13%, just as in an accounting ledger.

The survey sample is superior this round, rising from 511 responses in 2k06 to 956 this year.  Repubs can't take any pleasure in the outcomes for this year as far as the raw stats are concerned.  They've pushed ahead of the Dems, but by only 3 percentage points and there's a 6+ % margin of error for these counts.

Neverrtheless, of course, overall the Repubs are doing so much better in among women in 2k10, as compared to 2k06.  The beautiful, elegant First Lady, Michelle Obama, has been sent out on the campaign trail to overcome the statistical advantage that the GOP has been registering.

-- Politicarp

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