UK: Diplomacy: Tony Blair only days after his end-of-office forecast, visits Olmert in Israel, today Abbas in West Bank

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Just days after UK Prime Minister Tony Blair had lawnched a crisis in his own Labour Party by announcing if not a time-table, then at least a forecast, even a foreshadowing of his resignation as the party's Leader within a year, just after that apparently-continuing all-hell-broke-loose event, the PM now has undertaken a major diplomatic initiative in the MidEast. According to Reuters via a BBC dispatch today, "Blair to meet Palestinian leader," the Prime Minister wants to stay in office until some definitive positive step is achieved to bring Israel and Palestinians closer to an accord, at least to serious negotiations toward the vaunted two-state solution. He also wants to see Lebanon stabilized under the newly-expanded UN forces in the border zone between Israel and Lebanon in the South, and -- according to yesterday's news -- a UN presence along the border between Lebanon and Syria to the east.

Britain > MidEast & Northern Ireland diplomacy

In talking with Ohlmert and Abbas, Blair showed no sign of breaking ranks with the European Union policy of non-negotiation with Palestine's Hamas govt under the prevailing conditions of the latter's lack of recognition of Israel's r+t to exist. Hamas still advocates iranianism toward Israel, altho the Palos are not in Iran's grip as of yet.

Mr Olmert said he was ready to begin talks with Mr Abbas to advance peace efforts.

The EU has insisted Hamas recognises Israel's right to exist before there can be any dialogue with the administration.

But Hamas argues the real problem has been Mr Blair's attachment to the US, which it says views the Middle East from Israel's perspective.

BBC news correspondent Alan Johnston said Mr Abbas's camp would "welcome Mr Blair's efforts to re-energise the peace process".

But he added: "There is a widespread contempt for Mr Blair among Palestinians."

With a good section of his parliamentary caucus at Blair's throat and with the antiwar movement, within and without the party, poodlizing him; the contempt among Palos is nothing special. However, the same spirit also exists, for instance, in wide sections of loyalists to the British Crown in Northern Ireland where it has been revealed that the Irish Republican Army maintains its command and discipline structure, despite the Blair deal that supposedly was to dissolve the IRA completely into peaceful political participation in Sinn Fein. And hence presumably into a restored parliamentary democracy in Northern Ireland ("devolution"). The IRA argues that retention of command and discipline over its members actually leads to a greater promise of peace for the future in Ulster, and a commission has confirmed that. But can either be trusted among all sides? It seems most Protestants doubt this furthering of the IRA's longevity, to their core, doubting Blair's diplomacy in regard to their interests as well. An opinion piece in Belfast Telegraph, "Northern Ireland and a lame-duck PM" (Sep7,2k6) summarizes:

...[A]fter 10 years in Downing Street, he would have to admit that the handling of his departure timetable has been disastrous. His dwindling number of supporters feel let down, his enemies are jubilant, his party is suffering and any influence he and the country have in the world is declining fast.

While the PM is still hard at work on the diplomatic front in the MidEast, what about the diplomatic front at home?

...[A]fter 10 years in Downing Street, [Blair] would have to admit that the handling of his departure timetable has been disastrous. His dwindling number of supporters feel let down, his enemies are jubilant, his party is suffering and any influence he and the country have in the world is declining fast.

There are repercussions even in Northern Ireland. Dates are being fixed for another high-powered summit in Scotland to conclude a deal on devolution before November 24, but already it has lost some momentum. Since Mr Blair will be gone in a few months' time, politicians will be more interested in the policies of his successor -- Gordon Brown or A.N. Other.

On this side of the Atlantic, Blair is very much more appreciated. Tho the antiwar movement deprecates him here too, yet he remains appreciated perhaps more than anywhere else in the world. He has presided over Britain's political course in quite difficult times. Only when his replacement is in power, will we be able to evaluate comparatively what he contributed over the span of his time in office. His record in Northern Ireland will remain decisively non-stellar. One may doubt, however, that anyone could have done better from Downing Street, but better has been what was and is needed.

-- Politicarp

Further Info

Former Blairite Minister resigns to force Blair resignation
Blair calls for stop of Labour Party infiting