Diplomacy: Secession: Kosovo moves slowly toward independence from Serbia where public opinion now accepts inevitable

.
The cause of Kosovo independence inches forward relentlessly. Nine session have been held so far over many months to find a consensus between Serbia and Kosovo, as to the latter countries leaving the formal trappings of its previous status as integral to Serbia's territory and national jurisdiction. The moment Serbia began its military campaign of genocide against the Kosovars, it lost all moral authority to continue "ownership" and "sovereignty" over what was 15% of its national territorial jurisdiction and the 90% population majority it was determined to keep in a subcitizen status. That day is over because of the Milosevic War against the Kosovars, amd NATO intervention against Serbia. Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo constitute only 6% of the largely Muslim-background population, tho there are additional minorities neither culturally Muslim nor Serbian (Orthodox).

Still, ethnic Serb Kosovars (we shall call them, or just Serb Kosovars) have considerable nostalgia for the Milosevic mirage of "Greater Serbia" which was actually a n+tmare of oppression and which is still the political fantasy of Serbia's largest political party , the Serbian Radical Party which is correctly excluded from the governing coalition. In Serbia itself, a recent poll concludes "most Serbs want Kosovo to remain part of Serbia but are pessimistic." That pessimism is important, and it is good, despite the longevity of the fantasy. Acceptance of a free and independent Kosovo is coming to consciousness among the Serbs.

In the meantime, Serbia without Kosovo is plagued by the constant reminder by the European Union and the International Criminal Court for former Yugoslavia in the Hague regarding the Serbian institutions hiding wanted alleged genocidists, like former Gen Ratko Mladic (see also: Del Ponte). Not just this, but huge major claims by expatriate Serbs in the US and other countries are presenting ownership claims seized by the Nazis and then by the Communists, diverting property to other interim owners. Southeast European Times reporter Georgi Mitev-Shantek reported on Sept 6, 2k6, "Serbia drags its feet on restitution":

According to earlier statistics, applicants who are now living in the United States are requiring the return of property valued at $500m through the embassy in Belgrade.

Statistics show that the state took away 726 million square metres -- or 20,000 pieces of property. In addition, securities, promissory notes, intellectual and industrial properties were also taken. According to the Denationalisation Law -- which is expected to be passed and implemented by the year's end -- property needs to be returned to the previous owners. If this is impossible, monetary compensation must be offered. The Restitution network reports that the property will be able to be physically returned in 90 per cent of the cases.

Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary started restitution 15 years ago. Bulgaria (1992), Germany (1994), Romania, Croatia and Poland (1996), Macedonia (1998), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2000), Montenegro (2002) and Albania (2004) have also started the restitution procedures. Serbia, however, is still compiling inventories of confiscated property.

One can understand if Serbs generally feel beleaguered by all the pressures presently on them; such pressures can contribute to a mass psychology of alienation from the outside world, and intransigence with movements for change, such as the massive represented by the cause of Kosovo democracy and independence outside of Serbia's tutelage. The Bush Administration invited Serb President Boris Tadic for a three-day US visit, starting Sep5,2k6)

Europe > Serbia / Kosovo

To head off this real possiblity, the US has made significant moves toward recognition and affirmation of the Serbian state. The result of the recent visit has been characterized by Tadic in this brief statement:

Wrapping up a three-day formal visit to the United States on Friday (8 September), Serbian President Boris Tadic said a new page has been turned in bilateral relations with the signing of the Status of Forces Agreement. In addition to military ties, it promotes "new opportunities for co-operation in all fields". Tadic was in the US state of Ohio on Friday, where the strategic partnership programme is headquartered. (Tanjug, RTS, Danas - 09/09/06)

Along the lines of military cooperation with the US and eventually more formally with Europe and NATO, it is hoped, Serbia is upgrading its air defenses (but not purchasing new military equipment) and switching away from a universal conscript basis of its male population.

Serbia is expected to allocate about 30m euros from the 2006-2007 budget to repair and modernise military aircraft and helicopters, Serbian Finance Minister Mladjan Dinkic said on Friday (1 September). The purchase of new fighter jets and helicopters is not planned. According to Dinkic, the government is determined to set up a fully professional army by 2010. (RTS, B92, Beta, Tanjug - 01/09/06)

"Professional army" indicates that only volunteers who submit to a new military doctrine (as against the extreme nationalism of the Serb army in the past), more in tune with intra-European harmonization and NATO cooperation is in the Serbia's future.

But the status of Kosovo remains the stumbling bloc for support of Serbia by all the principled advocates of democratic self-determination for oppressed majorities who find themselves trapped within oppressive states.
Those advocates have achieved a Kosovo-status summit consensus as of Sep1,2k6:

The Contact Group confirmed its original intention to reach a solution on Kosovo's status by the end of this year, Beta news agency reported on Friday (1 September). The six-member Contact Group also reiterated its full support for UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari in his role as a mediator. The UN envoy briefed the Contact Group about the current course of negotiations last week. The next meeting will be held in Sofia on 11 and 12 September. The UN Security Council will hold two separate sessions on Kosovo this month -- one discussing UNMIK's performance, the other dedicated to status talks.

Also Friday, German General Roland Kather took over command of KFOR, replacing Italian General Giuseppe Valotto. NATO South Wing Commander US Admiral Harry Ulrich said at the ceremony that NATO will not tolerate any violence or threat to Kosovo's security. (B92, Kosova Live, Beta - 01/09/06)

We await any outcome from the Sep11-12 meeting in Sofia, Bulgaria. And, we note the international community is pro-active in resolving Kosovo's status--besides the Contact Group, also the UN (UNMIK), UN Security Council, EU,
NATO (KFOR). I predict that Kosovo will be a free and independent state in a few years, will join NATO and the EU. Whether it will proceed Albania and/.or Turkey as the first Muslim-majority state to do so, remains to be seen.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Germany's Gen Roland Kather takes over KFOR command

Serb/Kosovo negotiators on decentralization fail to cover whole agenda