Thursday, September 07, 2006

Economics: Canada: Softwood lumber industry prevails on Bloc Quebecois to back Conservs in September confidence vote

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The softwood lumber issue, which has long hung over the heads of Canadian politicians like a sword of Damocles, has finally divided the not-so-united opposition parties in the Canadian Houe of Commons. Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe has announced his party will vote with the minority govt of Stephen Harper on this issue which had been made a confidence vote by the Conservs. If Parliament defeats a legislative motion declared by the govt to be one of confidence, a real possiblity with a minority govt, that govt falls and new elections must be be held.

While Duceppe declared he was not bolting the opposition to avoid a third election within two years, at this point he would still have lost seats for his party. But he made clear that he had canvassed the Québec interests most interested in the softwood-lumber trade quarrel of Canada with the USA, and that, the deal Harper's negotiators have achieved with the Yanks was good enuff to deserve BQ approval.

North America > Canada

According to Canadian Press via Globe&Mail, "Bloc to support softwood deal" (Sep7,2k6):

The agreement, which would see the Americans pay back about $4-billion (U.S.) of $5-billion in punitive duties paid by Canadian lumber producers, has been endorsed by the premiers of Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario, the three big softwood-producing provinces.

Mr. Duceppe did release a list of proposals he has asked Harper to consider, but Bloc support will not be conditional on the recommendations' being followed.

“The industry, the unions, the regions, the municipalities and chambers of commerce [in Québec] are asking us to do exactly what we're doing now,” Mr. Duceppe said. “This is being responsible. We're not playing politics on the backs of those people.”
At the same time, the Liberal Party's federal caucus in the Commons will snub precisely those interests Duceppe mentioned, to side with the always-anti-Conserv New Democrats against the motion. This could cause some Libs to bolt their party line, or come election time could cause the loss of some seats in the three main softwood-producing provinces (as I doubt all the seats in the softwood regions are held by others than Libs ... it would be interesting to know).

CBC's report on the same matter adds a bit to our info, which is grossly under reported by the online Canadian media including those mentioned here:

Under the terms of the agreement, announced July 1:

* More than $4 billion of the import duties the U.S. charged Canadian companies since 2002 will be returned to the companies (leaving about $1 billion unreturned).
* The U.S. cannot launch new trade actions.
* Restrictions on Canadian exports will kick in if prices fall too far.
* Neutral trade arbitrators will settle disputes.
With this proposed legislation approving the negotiators' solution to the long-standing sectoral trade-quarrel between the two countries, allowing a freer flow of Canadian softwood into the US, without duties and over the opposition of the competing US industry, Harper will be able to add another positive outcome to the list of his party's achievements. And in the meantime, postpone further the election that looms on the horizon for his minority govt. In the labyrinth of Canadian fed politics, it's fair to say the BQ has bawt time not only for itself but also for the FedLibs who are in conummate disarray as the proceed with an intra-party campaign to elect a new party leader. The FedLibs would have been hard pressed to fite well an election without a duly-elected leader were one called for a month's time from now.

-- Politicarp

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