Sunday, November 05, 2006

Politics: USA: Dems seem sure to win House of Representatives, Republicans to retain slim majority in Senate

Donkey kicks elephant ass

Forbes magazine via Associated Press reporter David Epso tells us that the "GOP still hopes for a slim majority" (Nov5,2k6), a hope down considerably from pre-scandal expectations. But the same journalist (AP) in USA Today, "Democrats poised for election gains" (Nov5,2k6). In the second article, Epso writes about the fite for control of the Senate, "Democrats said they would defeat Republican Senators Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Mike DeWine in Ohio and Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, and Republicans made little attempt to dispute them."

North America > USA

Pennsylvania is overall a hotly contested state this election time, where seats in the House of Representatives attracted huge battles. "Seats held by Republican Congressmen Michael Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach and Don Sherwood in eastern Pennsylvania were so fiercely fought that the two party committees spent more than $18 million (euro14 million) combined to prevail." In a way, Pennsylvania epitomizes a string of geostrategic contestations: "A string of states stretching from Connecticut through New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky holds roughly 20 competitive races. All were in Republican hands, a blend of open seats and incumbents in trouble. Reynolds, of New York, as well as Congresswoman Deborah Pryce of Ohio, also a member of the leadership, were among them."

Should one be tempted to say this predictions reflect the partisanship of the MainStream Media, one need only compare the analysis of Robert Novack of the Evans-Novak Report (Oct18,2k6 - email newsletter and online at Human Events. Conservative hardliner and topnotch election reporter/analyst Novack, in his most recent email report, says, "If the election were held today, Democrats would seize control of the House of Representatives, perhaps by a substantial margin. In addition to the ones where they trail, Republicans now have several races teetering on the brink of disaster. Democrats +20, Republicans -20."

Novack's Oct25,2k6 edition tacks on this thawt: "While our seat-by-seat analysis shows Democrats winning the House by a four-seat margin, the overriding question is whether a 'wave' will deliver a really big Democratic majority. That presumes an overwhelming sentiment that negates seat-by-seat analyses. ¶Actually, waves [that override all previous expectations]are very rare in recent American political history. The only wave we have seen during the 39-years of this publication was the Watergate election of 1974, when the 49-seat Democratic gain surpassed all forecasts. The gain of 49 was extraordinary because of the very high Democratic level going into the election, raising the party's House margin to an astounding 145 seats. The famous Gingrich election of 1994 was not a wave. We predicted a 45-seat gain, based on seat-by-seat analysis, and the actual pickup was 51. "

-- Politicarp

More Info:

USA Election info, mapped, daily updates
Election Prediction

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