Politics: Canada: Federal Tories and Grits Locked in a Statistical Tie – Turbulence for Tories in Quebec

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In Canada, I have long found the polling of Nik Nanos of SESresearch to be the most accessible, explanatory, and simply best (nnanos@sesresearch.com).

Recently, Nanos has reported on his soundings and their results regarding two important topics:

1.) Nov12,2k6 – Mixed bag for Liberal leadership hopefuls [Lib ldrshp survey]
2.) Nov16,2k6 – Federal Tories and Grits Locked in a Statistical tie
– Turbulence for Tories in Quebec

Here's "Nik Nanos on the Numbers" --

1.) Mixed bag for Liberal leadership hopefuls

In order to understand the possible impact of the new Liberal leader, SES has looked at the how Canadians voted in the last election and correlated that against whether Canadians would be more or less likely to vote Liberal under the new leader. Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag with no candidate having a clear advantage over the other.

However, of note – Bob Rae has the ability to attract some of those who voted NDP in the last election to the Liberal banner. Stephane Dion is a non-starter among [separatist Bloc Quebecois] in Quebec – not surprising considering his pro-federalist views. Michael Ignatieff generally trades off those he would attract compared to those he would not attract [eg, losing pro-Israel Jews for anti-Israel Muslims? - Politicarp], with the exception that NDP voters would be less likely to vote Liberal under an Ignatieff leadership. Gerard Kennedy could hold onto the Liberal vote in the last election but would have difficulty growing Liberal support [were elected Liberal leader].

Methodology Polling between November 5th and November 10th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Canadian Voters (N=1,002, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

Question: For the last federal election earlier this year, which party did you vote for locally (724 Canadians who provided an answer)

Conservative 37.5%
Liberal 31.0%
NDP 14.9%
BQ 12.5%
Green 4.2%

North America > Canada

Because of the complexity of the tables, you should visit Nanos' SES website at www.sesresearch.com to download the stats. Here are the highlights.

Ignatieff as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 16% (Among 2004 NDP voters 14%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 20% (Among 2004 NDP voters 29%)
No impact 47%
Unsure 17%

Rae as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 20% (Among 2004 NDP voters 30%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 24% (Among 2004 NDP voters 22%)
No impact 42%
Unsure 14%

Dion as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 14% (Among 2004 BQ voters 14%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 23% (Among 2004 BQ voters 29%)
No impact 48%
Unsure 15%

Kennedy as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 12%
Less likely to vote Liberal 21%
No impact 50%
Unsure 17%

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the “SES Research National Survey.”

Cheers,

Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President
email: nnanos@sesresearch.com
web: http://www.sesresearch.com

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2.) Federal Tories and Grits Locked in a Statistical tie – Turbulence for Tories in Quebec (Nov16,2k6)

Look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). When the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but when the focus shifted to Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush the Harper shift noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.

The main beneficiary of the Conservative drop has been the BQ [separatist Bloc Quebecois] (up eight points). This illustrates the appeal that the Harper-led Conservatives had among soft nationalists in Quebec.

It’s a little early for a victory lap for the Liberals. Quebec is the most volatile in support right now. The Conservatives need to hold and expand support in Quebec to stay in government, the Liberals need to win support to block the Conservatives.

The Liberal leadership will be critical to the fortunes of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. A divided Liberal party (or anything that has a whiff of inappropriate behaviour by a leadership campaign) will be good news for the Harper Conservatives. If the Liberals come out united and have a leader who can have some sort of appeal to Quebecers – they will be back in the game.

NEW! SES Research Blog!
I have launched my own blog “Nik on the Numbers” a new interactive blog where you can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue. Check it out today at www.nikonthenumbers.com.

Methodology Polling between November 5th and 9th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The statistics of committed voters for the current wave is accurate to within 3.3 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The margin of accuracy will be wider for sub samples. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Canada (N=884, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only) The change from the previous wave is in parenthesis.

National
Conservative Party – 34% (-2)
Liberal – 32% (+2)
NDP – 16% (-2)
BQ – 13%(+2)
Green Party – 5% (No change)

Quebec (N=224, MoE ±6.6, 19 times out of 20)
BQ – 50% (+8)
Liberal – 25% (+3)
Conservative Party – 12% (-14)
NDP – 10% (+2)
Green Party – 4% (+1)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the “SES Research National Survey.”

Cheers,

Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President
email: nnanos@sesresearch.com
web: http://www.sesresearch.com

The picture painted by the Nanos numbers, it seems to me, leaves the outcome of the next election (much more likely to take place some time relatively soon the Libs have chosen their new leader in early November). And then it could matter whether the Conservatives call the election pure and simple, stage a vote on a piece of legislation they declare to be a confidence moton, or simply wait until the opposition parties caucus turn down a Budget. There are few other options directly at the oppos' command for "bringing down the House" of Commons. Yet, there are many pieces of Tory legislation that the Tories themselves could tag as confidence motions.

-- Politicarp

More Info:

Bob Rae heads Lib leader wannabees in national election
Harper's Quebec Strategy (Nov7,2k6)