Nukes: North Korea: Fourth of July fusillade from NorKor
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Kim Jong Il (that's capital "i," lowercase "l," as in "ill" or "eel"), the dictator in total control of North Korea, "test-fired seven missiles that plunged into the Sea of Japan without causing damage or injury."
In the Christian Science Monitor, Donald Kirk, Donald Kirk, "N. Korea's test threat launches uproar," already on Jun22,2k6, reported the view that
North Korea was interested in talking one-on-one [to the US, which the Bush administration had already rejected - P]. The inference was that North Korea would put off test-firing the missile depending on the US response - and then on the outcome of talks.Asia > North KoreaAccording to this logic, North Korea was just staking out a basis for negotiations by declaring its right to have a long-range missile and to fire it in violation of its own self-imposed moratorium.
In what has become a dangerous bargaining game, the United States is sure to spurn this overture while demanding that North Korea return to six-party talks designed to get the North to abandon its entire nuclear weapons program - not just the launch of a missile theoretically capable of reaching the US west coast with a nuclear warhead.
Japan, if anything more concerned than the US, since a test-firing would probably send a missile over its country, could be expected to support this position. Japan has warned of "stern measures" in retaliation for a missile.
North Korea, in calling for talks, is not about to consider giving up its nuclear warheads without a massive infusion of aid.
Rather, the North's immediate concern is the ban imposed by the US Treasury on all financial firms doing business with the North. The ban has forced the Banco Delta Asia in Macao, the biggest conduit for $100 "supernotes" counterfeited in the North, to freeze North Korean accounts.In hinds+t, I have trouble with this take on things. On Tuesday, July 4, North Korea celebrated the Fourth of July and continued to dominate the worldnews on July 5, the US President's birthday by firing 7 missiles, including a long-range type, which failed promptly after launch."The US is now strangling North Korea economically," says Kim Tae Woo, also a senior research scholar at the Institute for Defense Analyses, affiliated with South Korea's Defense Ministry. "Their immediate objective is to make the US step back." continued ...
continued...Mr. Kim advances that view - and not what he sees as overblown suggestions of a US military response - as the primary reason why the North provoked what has become a "missile crisis."
Alarm, nevertheless, flashed thru-out the world. And correctly so. North Korea was fiting hard in competition with Iran toward some day sizzling something American or one of its regional neighbours.
Just as in ancient times, heads of state called in the astrologers before making a major move among their competitor powers, North Korea's exalted leader Kim, must have noted the conjunction of the 4th of July with the formidible state visits scheduled for a week later, China visiting NorKor for six days, then NorKor visting China for six days to celebrate the 45th anniversary of the treaty between the two Communist states.
The now-famous barrage of missiles out of the Frozen Land of Misery, apparently included a fizzled unarmed missile aimed at Hawaii, that would have been crossing above Japan were it not to have dropped into the ocean, close to its source. Even in NorKor's fondest hopes, it wasn't aimed at the North American continent. Neither Canada, nor continental USA. The target, I would suggest, was China. The wily Kim Jong Il was positioning himself for his "celebrations" with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao. How could the Chinese ally rebuke Kim were Kim the courageous launcher of such fine missiles, one hopefully that would make its way toward Hawaii? A proof in principle of American vbulnerablity that could only impress the Chinese overloard.
China is urging NorKor to rejoin regional nukes talks. You remember–North Korea, Russia (which shares a small border with NK along the common seacoast, China (just over the Yalu River from Korea, a Chinese province called "the Korean Autonomous Province," until recently), Japan (just over the sea, and historic enemy and conqueror), South Korea (which maintained its independence from the Communist North with American help), and the USA (which, under Gen Douglas MacArther, helped the Southerners escape Communism and the horrible fate of the North thereunder). As a matter of fact, as mentioned, a delegation from China is in NorKor r+t now to celebrate the 45th anniversary of the treaty between the two countries; a top NK delegation goes to Beijing afterward. But Fox's headline seems to be contradicted by the substance of the report under it.
China is the North's biggest source of aid and the two sides have regular contacts. While Beijing has been under pressure to use its influence to persuade the regime to return to disarmament talks, it is unclear how much sway Beijing actually holds over the North.There's much to learn from Robert Marquand's Jul 11,2k6 article, "Why missile tests worked for Kim Jong Il," Christian Science Monitor.The Chinese government hasn't said whether Wu or Hui would bring up the six-nation nuclear talks during their trip or released details on who they will meet. But a ministry spokeswoman has said China was "making assiduous efforts" in pushing for a resumption of the negotiations.
Talks have been deadlocked since November because of a boycott by Pyongyang in protest of a crackdown by Washington on the regime's alleged money-laundering and other financial crimes.
China has suggested an informal gathering of the six nations, which could allow the North to technically stand by its boycott, but at the same time meet with the other five parties — South Korea, China, the U.S., Japan and Russia.
But I disagree that the NorKor godling had little functional goal in his recent manoeuvre; it was no tantrum. Rather, my hypothesis is that Kim hates China. Ever since NorKor lost all that Soviet aid, when that partiucalr Evil Empire succumbed to Glasnost, NorKor has slipped further and further away from its goal of self-reliance. Yes, China is helping out, but at the same time it has abolished the Autonomous Korean province within China itself, bordering on North Korea. Yes, China has increased aid, but not nearly enuff, as the poverty of the people (in dramatic comparison to the bureaucratic elite, the state security appartus, and the army–as Marquand itemizes) increases daily. My analysis is that Kim is intent on embarassing China and at the same time "earning" increased aid from the Colossus across the Yalu.
But, in this partiuclar point, Marquand convinces me:
Contrary to initial military analysis in the West, which focused on the failure of the Taepodong-2, Kim showed that his medium-range missiles are a threat to US bases and Japan. He is estimated to have more than 100 medium-range rockets.There has been kerfulling among the world's nations since the Fusillade of Missiles. Already on Jul 6,2k6, President Bush was moving beyond outrage and condemnation to a clear call for diplomacy, seemingly with three specific terms of approach in view. 1.) The US would only negotiate with NK thru the 6-nation regional group, and not 1-to-1. 2.) Diplomacy would take time. 3.) The US would in the meantime seek strong UN censure of NorKor, including a Security Council resolution that included some kind of condemnation after all, but also sanctions. At this point, the only question was: would Russia and China join in? Apparently, no, according to AP's "Bush: US wants dimplomtic solution for NK standoff."He has gratified his technical specialists and a military constituency," notes Mr. Snyder. "They demonstrated a capability for night launches, multiple launches, and the rockets send a signal that his ability to deliver in South Korea goes past just an artillery barrage of Seoul."
On the same day (Jul 6) that this message went out to the world and to NorKor, the media also reported that Japan had introduced a resolution at the UN.
Rookmaker Club geostrategic analysis
A Chapter 7 resolution threatening sanctions against North Korea for launching missiles would pass if voted on, the US ambassador to the United Nations said Thursday.And what was the reaction of NorKor's godling Kim?"The text of the Japanese resolution has broad and deep support," Amb. John Bolton said. "These missile launches clearly pose a threat to security ... This is a test of the Security Council."
Meanwhile two veto-wielding Security Council members — Russia and China — back-peddled on their position, proposing instead to issue a presidential statement.
North Korea mocked international criticism of its multiple missile tests, threatening to fire off more rockets. Pyongyang's foreign minister released a blustery statement declaring that it had the right to develop and test its weapons — and vowing unspecified retaliation against anyone who tries to stop it.The article cited above, "US: UN Resolution against North Korea has deep support," documents an even more appalling account of South Korea's insouciance in the face of NorKor's action. The article headline is definitely misleading when we consider the stance taken in turn by Russia, China, and South Korea. No sanctions?"Our military will continue with missile launch drills in the future as part of efforts to strengthen self-defense deterrent," said the statement, carried in state-run media. "If anyone intends to dispute or add pressure about this, we will have to take stronger physical actions in other forms."
The statement did not specify what actions North Korea would take.
Thus, it fell to Japan to hear the penny drop and to give clear voice to it's people's fear of Kim's quest for nuke-warhead missile-power over the entire region and beyond. Undoubtedly there are geostrategists in Moscow, Beijing, Seoul and Washington who are discussing attack scenarios to take Pyongyang out of the nuke-power picture. But only in Tokyo are these alternate plans being spoken aloud.
On Jul 7,2k6, Japan re-wrote its draft resolution, re-introduced it, and did so against the consortium to which I've just alluded ("New UN Draft Resolution on NK retains sanctions threat," FoxNews (Jul 7,2k6).
UNITED NATIONS — Over Chinese and Russian objections, Japan introduced a draft Security Council resolution Friday that would impose sanctions on North Korea for its series of rocket test-launches and also order a halt to its development of ballistic missiles.Japan, USA, France, UK are leading the way to a strong resolution, while China, Russia, and South Korea are blocking the way to the unified world move that President Bush so clearly desires, along with his allies. The situation is reminiscent of the UN stalemate regarding action to curb genocidist Iraq. I doubt the UN is the answer, doubt it has any answers to the most pressing problems. Apparently, Japan thinks along the same line, and has become increasingly pro-active in its own r+t as a sovereign state necessarily looking to its own self-defense. In face of the blockage at the UN Security Council, Japan has let it be known that it is considering unilaterial military action action against the missile and nuclear facilities of of North Korea. FoxNews poses a question on its Fox Fan page, "Japan's pre-emptive strike?," inviting readers to share their reactions to the idea.Backed by the United States, Britain and France, the resolution condemns the series of missile launches that the North conducted Wednesday after both its enemies and allies around the world warned it not to.
By putting forth the resolution, Japan risked a showdown with China and Russia, which have said they oppose sanctions or even passing a legally binding resolution on the issue. They want a more mild council statement that would chastize the North for the launches, and go no further.
Japan is considering a pre-emptive strike against North Korea's missile bases, signaling a firm stance before a possible U.N. Security Council vote on sanctions against the communist-led country."If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe.South Korea has dismissed the Japanese concern for its self-defense. But even easy-does-it SK had already halted aid to NK ("South Korea halts food aid to North Korea," FoxNews (Jul 7,2k6).
Seoul, South Korea — South Korea on Friday delayed food and fertilizer shipments to impoverished North Korea until the missile crisis is resolved, even as it pledged to press ahead with high-level talks with Pyongyang next week. A top U.S. envoy agreed with China to coordinate strategy on the North.I feel sorry for South Korea; I understand SK's (along with China's) historic hatred of Japan--which at the outset of World War II in the Pacific had conquered all of Korea, China's Manchuria and other regions. Self-defense agasinst NorKor aggression will awaken wider circles of fear in countries formerly subjected to Japan's own aggression. But I don't think this should deter support for Japan should it decide to incinerate NorKor's missile and nuke facilities.North Korea's plans to fire more missiles remained unclear. South Korean officials said another long-range missile may be at a Northern launch site, but they said latest intelligence shows no signs the reclusive regime was getting ready for more tests.
-- Politicarp
Further Resources:
Japan's Defense Chief says another NorKor missile launch coming but not soon
Japan outlines the necessity of a strong UN stand against NorCor's missiles.
North Korea's defiance of China on missiles
US to China: Put Pressure on NorKor
NorKor's long-range missile targeted near-Hawaii hit
Internal resistance to NorKor regime
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