Politics: Iraq: Fissures and mistrust, war politics of Sunnis in Anbar Province, Iraq's neibours, oil production shortfall

Washington Post published a detailed overview of the current situation in Iraq in the immediately preceding period. The article by Sudarsan Raghavan explains why there is a stalemate in the Iraqi parliament, where seemingly completed negotiations come undone quickly, sometimes allegedly because Prime Minister al-Maliki signs a document for which he doesn't have a consensus. He seems to have a presidential view of his office, but he lacks the support of the pro-Iran Shia of the Sadrist sect who have withdrawn their 6 ministers from the cabinet, while keeping their 30-member delegation in parliament with reps on at least two key committees thereof. Mr. Raghavan's important coverage is entitled "Baghdad's Fissures and Mistrust Keep Political Goals out of Reach (Apr26,2k7).

With the parliamentary stalemate in the background, the "war on the ground" continues. Looking at it from the various Iraqi points of view, while recalling that it is supposed to be for them "a sectarian civil war," pure and simple, we find the fascinating developments in the mostly-Sunni province of Anbar. There the Iraqi Sunni tribal leaders are turning against their foreign fellow Sunnis, Al Quaeda in Iraq. The forces of the anti-AlQuaeda chieftans have knocked off some of the AlQaeda leaders in the last week or so. They are saying that once the Americans are gone, the real problem will be these foreign fanatical fellow Sunnis, reports Sam Dagher in Christian Science Monitor. The "warlords" are on the warpath in a self-interested alliance with the USA against Al Qaeda. Sam Dagher in a second report, "Sunni Muslim sheikhs join US in fighting Al Qaeda -- Iraqi tribal support is linked to drop in violence in Anbar Province" (May3,2k7).

MidEast > Iraq

In yet a third dispatch the same Sam Dagher asks
"Can US sustain Anbar success?--While Al Qaeda in Iraq has been largely driven out of Ramadi, the US is hoping to build on the gains by fixing basic services and mediating tribal hostilities" (May4,2k7).

At the same time as the parliamentary stalement and the encouraging developments of the shift among the Sunnis, CSM carries a further report by
Howard LaFranchi regarding the just-concluded regional conference that included both Syria and Iran, with representatives of which US Secretary of State, Mdme. Condoleeza Rice, met. "Iraq's neibors wei next steps after regional conference --
Participating countries – including Syria and Iran – now face the test of fulfilling promises of security and economic aid" (May3,2k7).

But, cumulatively the juncture of the parliamentary stalemate and the shift of many Sunnis away from Al Qaeda in Anbar Province and the tenuous break-thru with various Iraqi neibours make all the more important what Peter Grier discusses under the title, "Iraq's oil production falls short of goals -- Despite years of rebuilding, petroleum production continues to fall short of targets, due to insurgency vandalism, poor field management, and corruption" (May7,2k7). At the same time, the success/failure of the oil industry in the country is dependent upon the disposal of the anticipated profits down the line. Which Iraqis--Shia, Sunnis, Kurds (also mostly Sunnis)--which of these will benefit from the oil fields is a key problem that impacts upon the three big problems: parliamentary stalemate, Sunnis breaking with AlQaeda, and again the neibours.