Oil: Saudi warning on prices: US military action against Iran's nuke systems could triple oil prices, Saudi scenario argues
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A Jun20,2k6, report in in Reuters (viaWashington Post) by Chris Baltimore presents a grim scenario as painted by Saudi Ambassador to the US, Prince Turki Al-Faisal:
Military move on Iran could triple oil price: SaudiAmbassador Al-Faisal seemed to be thinking of Iranian agents or Saudi terrorist surrogates for Iranian foreign policy launching a major attack against Saudi crude oil storage facilities and refineries, if not the oil fields themselve. Iran, of course, has a large number of spies in Saudiland, replenished regularly during the seaons of pilgrimage to Mecca, but also recruited by Iran from the Shi'ite population of Saudia Arabia itself which group constitutes 15% of the pop total. Shi'ites are treated abominably at law, and in other respects, in the Sunni Arab country dominated by the Wahabbist sect. Wahabbist extremists took over the Taliban revolution in Afghanistan. The Wahabbit extremists, armed with billions of dollars from the Saudi govt, build grand mosques thru-out the US, staffed by immigrant Wahabbist preachers, and spread jihadist literature. All the while the 500 adult members of the Saudi royal family stand aloof from the Wahab extemism and its "religious police." A kind of truce prevails between the two forces, but the royal family meets Wahab demands and pays all the bills for their American, Canadian, and worldwide expansion. Out of the Wahab climate arise the Saudi terrorist elements which have dared to break the truce and to strike out against the royals and the societal structure, not for emancipation but for further repression and religious severity.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World oil prices could triple if the diplomatic standoff over Iran's nuclear program escalates into a military conflict, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States said on Tuesday.
Assuming oil prices were at current levels near $70 a barrel at the time of an attack, "You would see that (oil price) perhaps double or triple as a result of the conflict," Prince Turki Al-Faisal said at a press conference hosted by the United States Energy Association.
"The idea of somebody firing a missile at an installation somewhere will shoot up the price of oil astronomically," Al-Faisal said.
Saudiland is the leading producer and exporter of crude oil in the world. Iran is the second major oil producer.
Principium Consumers Hub:
US crude-oil inventory at 8-year h+ [MarketWatch Jun21,2k6]
In an Armageddon-like word-picture, Ambassador Al-Faisal maintained that "If there was an attack on Iran, 'the whole Gulf will become an inferno of exploding fuel tanks and shot up facilities'."
Rookmaker Club's geostrategic analysis:
If we venture from discussing immediate realities to conduct a thawt experiment, we mite consider a geostrategic scenario, less apocalyptic than the Ambassador's, where the US military takes out the chief Iranian nuclear-bomb and missile manufactories, while a fulsome govt-backed wartime command of the auto industry is taken in hand to produce electric and hybrid automobiles en masse for the American general public. This would be ecologically sound, tho not perfect. It would survive the soaring Iran / Saudi oil prices which set the tone for OPEC, the world's cartel of industrials run by oil-producing nations. In the thawt experiment, a de-nuked Iran, a US auto industry run be govt command to proudce safe and efficeint non-polluting alternative transport for the whole country, pulls the rug out from under both the Iranian and Saudi oil economies (as far as such US action would impact them). Of course, that would, sad to say, would line up Iran and Saudiland as even greater suppliers of oil-thirsty China, but at reduced prices.... China shows no sign of any interest in combatting polution, whether within the Kyoto Protocols or outside them, and well mite proceed then to pollute itself beyond the capacities of our imaginations to comprehend.
The only problem in this scenario alternative to Al-Faisal's would dwell in the speed with which America's sluggish Detroit-based auto companies could make the necessary adjustments. I think it could be done: the transformation of the American automobile and truck and whatall to eco-sensitive fuels.
A Christian-democratic politics does not absolutize either govt intervention in the economy, nor free-marketeering in all respects in all industries in all periods. Critical historical phases arise where the state must act drastically and require the companies in a given industrial sector to produce a more suitable, better product faster than ever before. If the American industrial capacity could produce the atom bomb in a hurry, then combining a govt auto-industrial mandate with a forced cooperation of auto companies to work in tandem for rapid conversion of autos, trucks, boats, planes, buses, etc, to alternatively-fuelled transportation and shipping, should not really be a matter of principial objection given the emergency.
In the end, a principial Christian politics and statecraft is neither R+twing nor Leftwing, nor down the middle to balance the two extremist views. It's not pragmatist nor opportunist, but it is pragmatic and timely in facing up to and acting to solve the looming macro-crisis of the societal structure. Now is such time.
A Christian democratic neo-constantinian politics is not pacifist, favouring instead the use of a full array of policy instruments, as Condoleeza Rice has often reminded us - from multiple diplomatic techniques to military action, and all the points in between. Iran's and North Korea's bids to gain nuclear weaponry are a priority for principled resistance. The termination of USA dependence on oil and derivatives is a priority. The radical reformation of individual and group transport and shipping is a priority. The resistance to pollution and positive action to clean-up the environment is a priority. All of these priorities can be met as one in the scenario suggested, as drastic as it would be.
- Politicarp
Further Resources
Silicon Valley entrepreneurs race for electric car market
Energy and military force transformation
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