Politics: Palestine & Israel: Hamas' 80-member caucus to fracture to outmanoeuvre Israel's gambits?

Maybe you share with me the outside hope that there do indeed exist forces, or at least sentiments, within Hamas that want to get along as well as possible with Israel. A caption of a photo in a most recent BBC News report says, "There is some speculation of a split in Hamas on how to proceed" now that Israel has, on the one hand, pulled the plug on returning border taxes to the Palestinian authority (which funds pay the salaries of PA workers) and, on the other, has most recently tried to regain leverage by telling PA President Mahmoud Abbas that the funds will still flow if Abbas refuses to have any dealings with Hamas.

Rookmaker Club geostrategic analysis

As of the time of the report just mentioned, Hamas bosses based in the Gaza Strip were over the border in Cairo, Egypt, conferring with exiled top Hamas leadership who live in exile in Syria and Lebanon. The geopolitical situation may indeed be a factor in any forthcoming split in Hamas, since on-the-ground bosses in the West Bank can't get out of their location to confer in Cairo. I expect that the Cairo confab will find a Gazan solution, where an open border now obtains and Hamas can remain as intransigent as ever. I'd expect the top guys safe in Syria and Lebanon will instruct the Gazan Hamas on the next steps, with the West Bank Hamas expected to fall into line nicely.

Aside from differences on strategy, and on the possiblity of Hamas rescinding its commitment to the destruction of the Jewish State of Israel (a rescind that's hi-ly unlikely!), Israel is almost-desperately manoeuvering to prevent the ascendancy of Hamas which was democratically elected to a whopping majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Hamas is now by far the biggest party in the new Palestinian parliament, with 80 out of 132 seats at its command, after four Hamas-endorsed independents joined the movement's 76 successful candidates. ...

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is obliged to ask it to set up the new cabinet.

Hamas' parliamentary weight is so great that it can easily run a government without seeking a broader coalition [altho it lacks the policy and administrative expertize presently to be found in the extensively corrupt Cabinet and bureaucracy under Fatah. - P].

But in the aftermath of their election victory, Hamas leaders were evasive about whether they would simply take up the invitation.

They said they would consult Mr Abbas, his defeated Fatah organisation and other factions and bodies, to agree on a "political partnership", a kind of national consensus, which would underpin a new government.

But Fatah has been negative on the idea of joining a Hamas-led coalition.

Meanwhile, the rabid anti-American Eric Margolis calls names, while objecting to the label of "terrorists" for identifying Hamas. Yet, even Margolis implicitly does put his hope on a split within Hamas.

Another pre-election source, again in a disturbing context, outlines the potential sources of a split in Hamas between its West Bank and its Gaza sections:

During the second intifada, Hamas units in the West Bank worked almost in joint formations with their Tanzeem and al-Aqsa colleagues, the youth and military wings of Fatah respectively. (This closeness between Hamas and the younger members of Fatah in the West Bank is not replicated in Gaza, where Hamas and the Palestinian security chief Mohammed Dahlan are at loggerheads.)

Israel's acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has reversed himself on the payment of funds collected by Israel at border crossings, it has now also said it will cooperate with PA President Abbas 1.) "as long as he doesn't cooperate with Hamas"; and 2.) "as long as the Palestinian government isn't led by Hamas."

Obviously, something's gotta give, and hopefully that will be a Hamas split. But even in that case, why should we not expect a fake split, with a faction advocating renunciation of the destruction of Israel, aligning with Fatah to form a coalition government, the combined result then cooperating with Israel, getting the tax support from the Israelis, and at the same time protecting the destructionist wing of Hamas from the Fatah's desire to eliminate it.

The situation does indeed invite speculation, tracing down possible outcomes along now this faultline, now that, one after another. Scenarios. - Politicarp

Hamas vote - how much based on thirst for jihad?