Israel: West Bank Settlements: Removals, abandonments of Jewish settlements to proceed in Palestinian Territories

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Gershom Gorenberg, "Olmert Pushes for Quick Pullout From Large Part of West Bank," Forward (Apr21,2k6) reports that "Ehud Olmert is in a hurry. Call it bicycle politics: If he goes too slow, he's likely to fall." He's got to fish up a working coalition of parties to govern Israel, at the same timed he does so he must make his vital strategic moves in regard to a Palestine ruled by Hamas, except for the Palestine Authority's president Abbas. He's also got some gerrymandering to do in regard to Israel's borders, so that as many Jewish settlements in West Bank territories are mapped into Israel proper (as thus gerrymandered) and apparently to re-map so that h+ Arab-population density-zones now in Israel but close to West Bank land are zoned out. This trade-off, Olmert must hope, will placate Hamas. In the Olmert Grand Plan about 63,000 Jews will have to be relocated from the West Bank to Israel (proper).

There are both reasons of US-relations for Olmert to make his move and to make it swiftly, and internal Israeli domestic reasons. Note the rhetorical inflation in which Gorenberg indulges, using the prefix "ultra-" to typify American evancelicals (of course, some of us are "ultra"hawkish, some of us are just hawkish, some of us are not hawkwish, and some of us are doves. Gorenberg is apparently so obsessed with Jewish Ultra-Orthodox that he thinks he can map their demographic profile of opinion onto American Evangelicals. This is extremely superficial; should I say ultra-superficial israelish reporting. Anyway he says:

Given the ultra-hawkish Middle East views of Bush's evangelical base, it is also easier to let Israel initiate any concessions than to make Washington seem responsible. Bush's approach is ideal for Olmert. Since Olmert's dramatic political conversion two-and-a-half years ago, when he declared that Israel needed to give up land to preserve its Jewish majority, he has favored unilateralism: Israel would draw its own borders, retain major settlements such as Ma'aleh Adumim and Ariel, and count on America for international backing.

The internal Israeli reasons seem even more compelling for Olmert:

As a referendum on giving up West Bank land, the March 28 election provided clear results. Parties from Kadima leftward got 70 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. ¶ Yet Kadima itself won only 29 seats, less than half of what is needed for a parliamentary majority. That will make Olmert's "ruling" party a weak base for a coalition that must include several parties and can easily come undone.

Reporter Goderman has a detailed background-analysis of one of Olmert's potential coalition partners.

As a rightist party willing to cede land, [Avigdor] Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu has been treated by Kadima as a potential coalition partner. Early this week, though, Kadima was concentrating on first reaching agreement with Labor, whose 19 Knesset seats make it the second-largest party and a nearly essential piece of any ruling coalition. According to Labor leader Amir Peretz's spokesman, Tom Wegner, Labor would not blackball Lieberman, but would push for him to "renounce a program that includes elements of transfer." The objection, he said, was "not personal, but ideological." ¶ If Labor and Yisrael Beitenu do end up in the same coalition, the partnership is sure to be built on suspicion. Olmert does have other ways to build a majority — for instance, by including the two ultra-Orthodox parties. That, too, would be a fragile alliance. With a mandate for withdrawal but not for a stable coalition, Olmert apparently believes that his only choice is to try to carry out his program as fast as he can.

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To plumb the depths of the coalition-building problem, here's the standing of main parties in the new Israeli Knesset, the Knesset:

Main parties in the electoral race:

* Alliance: One Israel (Labor, Gesher, Meimad)*
Leader: Ehud BARAK
Seats won in last election: 34
Seats won in this election: 26M

* Party: Likud**
Leader: Binyamin NETANYAHU
Seats won in last election: 32
Seats won in this election: 19

* Party: Shas
Leader: Arieh DERI
Seats won in last election: 10
Seats won in this election: 17

* Party: Meretz - Democratic Israel****
Leader: Yossi SARID
Seats won in last election: 9
Seats won in this election: 10

* Party: Yisrael Ba'aliya
Leader: N/A
Seats won in last election: N/A
Seats won in this election: 6

* Party: Shinui
Leader: N/A
Seats won in last election: N/A
Seats won in this election: 6

* Party: National Religious Party
Leader: N/A
Seats won in last election: N/A
Seats won in this election: 5

* Party: United Torah Judaism
Leader: N/A
Seats won in last election: N/A
Seats won in this election: 5

* Party: United Arab List
Leader: N/A
Seats won in last election: N/A
Seats won in this election: 5

* Party: Other parties receiving seats (5)
Leader: N/A
Seats won in last election: N/A
Seats won in this election: 15

* The party seats won in the last election represent those of the Labor party only.

** Seats won in last election include those won in the electoral alliance with the Gesher and Tsomet parties.

**** The party seats won in the last election represent those of the Meretz party only.

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Another development is reported by Ori Nir," Israelis Mull Barghouti Release," Forward(Apr21,2k6) regarding their Palestinian prisoner Marwan Bourghouti, "Fatah strongman."

... Israeli officials are considering the possibility of releasing Barghouti under certain circumstances. Barghouti, considered the most popular and charismatic figure in the younger generation of Fatah leadership, was sentenced in 2004 to five consecutive life terms for leading the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and for ordering the murder of Israelis. While in prison, he led Fatah's parliamentary slate in the Palestinian legislative elections this past January. He is widely seen as the only figure that could regroup Fatah and provide legitimacy to future negotiations with Israel if and when the Hamas government falls.

"Most senior officials in the political system and in the security apparatus realize that at some point, this man will have to be released because he's probably the only one with whom we could sign an agreement," said Shlomo Brom, a former top intelligence analyst now serving as a scholar at the congressionally funded United States Institute of Peace. "If the imperative is to bring about the collapse of the Hamas government as soon as possible, then it is also imperative to prepare for the day after."

To my mind, releasing Barghouti, should he endorse Olmert's solution to the West Bank settlements issue (allowing two very large settlements to co-exist within the West Bank territories run by the Palestinian Authority with Abbas in the Presidency and Barghouti taking his acknowledged place as Fatah party leader, is a good idea. Hamas won't like it, one dang bit. - Politicarp

Tags:

• politics
• politicsisrael
• coalitionforming
• settlementsjewish
• olmertehud
• barghoutimarwan
• palestinepolitics
• fatah
• hamas