Politics Iran: MidEast youth protests: Spread from Arabia to Persia, an old battle re-engaged

BBC News, Iran (Feb14,2k11)

Clinton expresses US support 

for Iran protesters

Footage of the protests in Tehran was captured on mobile phones

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Iran Crisis

• Revolutionary fever
• Behind the 'Mossad plot'
• Iran's cash to Kabul worries US
• Squeezing Iran: Oil and sanctions

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has expressed her firm support for the thousands of opposition supporters who protested in Iran's capital on Monday.

Mrs Clinton said they deserved to have "the same rights that they saw being played out in Egypt" and that Iran had to "open up" its political system.

One person was reportedly shot dead in the violent clashes between protesters and security forces in central Tehran.

Dozens were detained, and opposition leaders were placed under house arrest.

The BBC received reports of banned demonstrations in other Iranian cities, including Isfahan, Mashhad and Shiraz.

'Hypocrisy'

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In their first major show of dissent December 2009, when eight people were killed, thousands of opposition supporters gathered at Tehran's Azadi Square on Monday in solidarity with the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

They chanted: "Death to dictators".

But the BBC's Mohsen Asgari, who was at the rally, says it was not long before riot police fired tear gas, while men on motorbikes charged the crowd with batons.

Witnesses told the Associated Press new agency that at least three protesters had been wounded by bullets, with dozens of others taken to hospital as a result of the beatings.

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency meanwhile reported that one person was shot dead by protesters and several others wounded.

Opposition websites said hundreds of people were arrested. There has been no official confirmation.

As night fell, hundreds of riot police remained on the streets of the capital.

Later in Washington, Mrs Clinton told reporters that the US administration "very clearly and directly" supports the protesters.

"What we see happening in Iran today is a testament to the courage of the Iranian people, and an indictment of the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime - a regime which over the last three weeks has constantly hailed what went on in Egypt," she said.

Mrs Clinton said the US had the same message for the Iranian authorities as it did for those in Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down after 29 years in power by nationwide mass protests.

"We are against violence and we would call to account the Iranian government that is once again using its security forces and resorting to violence to prevent the free expression of ideas from their own people," she said.

"We think that there needs to be a commitment to open up the political system in Iran, to hear the voices of the opposition and civil society," she added.

Earlier on Monday, police placed the opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, under house arrest and blocked access to his home.

His website said they intended to prevent the former prime minister attending the Tehran rally.

Thousands defied the government's ban on demonstrations and gathered in Tehran

Fellow opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of parliament and a senior cleric, is also reportedly being held under house arrest.

Both men disputed the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009, which triggered protests that drew the largest crowds in Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The authorities responded by launching a brutal crackdown.

The opposition says more than 80 of its supporters were killed over the following six months, a figure the government disputes. Several have been sentenced to death, and dozens jailed.

Although Iran's establishment supported the Egyptian and Tunisian protests, describing them as an "Islamic awakening" inspired by the Islamic Revolution, it said the opposition rallies were a "political move".

Analysis

James ReynoldsBBC Iran correspondent

Iranian protesters say that there is a certain symmetry to events in the Middle East. They believe the rallies they held after disputed presidential elections in 2009 helped to inspire the protests in the Arab World in 2011.

Now, in return, Iran's protesters say that they have been fired up by the demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt.

But there are big differences between the situation faced by protesters in Iran and by those in Arab countries.

One of these is the role played by security forces. In Egypt, the army largely stood back. By contrast, Iran's security forces have tried to make sure that there is no dissent at all.

Iran's government defeated the protesters in 2009. It expects that it will be able to do so again in 2011.

It is difficult to tell if one day of protest by several hundred demonstrators in Tehran will have much impact. But even if nothing else happens, Iran's opposition Green movement has proved an important point - it is still alive.

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Politics: Iran and South Caucusus: Seeking to shepherd Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia into Iran's orbit

In the widely respected online and print journal, Foreign Policy, an important 2-page dispatch on the Georgian Republic, Azerbaijan, and Armenia (the trio are often gathered in the significant geopolitical expression "South Caucusus") is offered by author Haley Sweetland Edwards, "Iran's Near Abroad: Beset by global sanctions, Iran's leaders go local" (Sept20,2k10). [Here "local" means "regional."]

The nations of the South Caucasus -- all of which receive U.S. aid, investment and support to one degree or another -- have accepted Tehran's recent overtures of friendship graciously, but cautiously. Georgia alone has received a whopping $4.5 billion from Western funders in the past two years, and can't afford to burn bridges with Washington.


"We're in a kind of Bermuda triangle here. Georgia needs U.S. support, but it needs friendly relations with its neighbors, too," says Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies in Tbilisi. While the United States has watched Iranian influence in the region closely, it has not yet insisted its allies cut ties with Tehran. "They understand we are a small nation, stuck in the middle. We have Iranian investors, Israeli investors, Turkish investors. We can't afford to alienate anyone. It is in our interest to keep Russia from having all the cards here," Rondeli says.

While Georgia is nominally Christian (Georgian Orthodox Church) and Armenia with its affiliated enclave deep in Azeri territory, Nagorno-Karabakh are also nominally Christian (Armenian Apostolic Church), Azerbaijan is Shia Muslim.


The resulting tug-wars also turn on Russia's extra-territorial ambitions as evidenced during the Bush Administration, when Russia used its split-off  Georgian provincial ally of South Ossetia, to justify armed invasion of Georgia proper. (Oct8,2k08) Now, Georgia is entering into economic deals with Iran, which is only some 800 miles away, while attempting to ward of the voracious Russia, and also retaining its foremost ally in the world, the USA.  (The Bush Administration wisely decided not to give armed support to Georgia at the time, and for the longest time Pres. Obama shrugged off the country and its people.)


Why the Georgia-Iran deal-making? 


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Rookmaker Club for Geopolitical Strategy
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Georgia seeks to break out of its cul-de-sac situation on the level of economic development.  Again, while the USA funds its ally, it can't offer what Iran can.  Says analyst-reporter Edwards, the reason for the Iranian move toward rapprochement with Georgia and vice versa is "energy."  Georgia presently at Russia's mercy on that score.  With a pipeline and a railroad financed by Iran, Georgia woud be able to asserta a bit it's economic and development independence.


At the moment, of coourse, Iran's leader Ahmadhi-Nejab is holding forth at the United Nations in New York City.  Wall Street Journal carries this news note as a teaser to lure subscribers (you can get the full article without paying up, darn 'em!).  The unavailable article, "US opens window for Iran talks" is by Jay Solomon and Richard Boudreaux (Sept22,2k10)

The Obama administration said Iran has offered new signs of a willingness to negotiate on its nuclear program, as Washington and other world powers pressed at the United Nations for an immediate resumption of a dialogue with Tehran. The comments, made by senior U.S. officials on Wednesday, came a day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told American journalists in New York that he saw no "alternative" but to resume negotiations with the international community on the nuclear issue.
Still, U.S. and European officials said they remain skeptical of Tehran's desire to negotiate an agreement to end or limit the Iranian [nuclear project].

Couple this with revelations in the new Woodward book, Obama's Wars, that he thinks the USA can simply "absorb" terrorist attacks with his foot-dragging in the defense of Israel when Iran constitutes a "near and present danger" to our only ally in the MidEast, to put the Obama-Clinton envisaged talks with Iran and also the Bush policy being followed in regard to the Georgian Republic, into a geopolitical context, you will find yourself with much musing to pursue on these present realities.


-- Politicarp

Politics: Iraqi factions: Shiite firebrand Moqtada Sadr leaves other Shiites holding the bag, announces plan for his militia's alliance with Sunnis

BBC reports "Sadr calls for Sunni co-operation--Moqtada Sadr delivers sermon at Kufa" (25,2K7). The unsigned article continues, "Moqtada Sadr's faction has met for talks with Sunni moderates."

Moqtada Sadr, the radical Shia cleric, has backed a peace plan with Sunni factions in a bid to calm Iraq's sectarian violence.

Mr Sadr, who appeared in Iraq for the first time in months at Friday prayers, said his followers would co-operate with Sunnis against US occupation.

A senior aide told the BBC Mr Sadr had met moderate Sunni groups, aiming to forge a "united and democratic Iraq".

Iraq's vice-president called Mr Sadr's statement "quite encouraging".

Tarek al-Hashemi described Mr Sadr as "number one... the most influential leader" and said he would welcome a new approach to Sunni-Shia relations.

Speaking in the city of Kufa, Mr Sadr blamed foreign troops for Iraq's problems, and said Sunnis and Shias alike should oppose their continued presence in the country.

"I am ready to cooperate with [Sunnis] at all levels - this is my hand I stretch out to them."

Moqtada Sadr

"I say to our Sunni brothers in Iraq that we are brothers and the occupier divided us in order to weaken the Iraqi people," he said.

"In unity is strength, and in division weakness. We say to them, welcome at any time.

"I am ready to cooperate with them at all levels. This is my hand I stretch out to them - in so doing, I seek only God's satisfaction."

Mehdi politics

A senior political aide to Mr Sadr, Abd al-Mahdi al-Mutairi, told the BBC how the cleric's organisation was now seeking a compromise with moderate Sunnis.

He said Sadrist representatives met a group called the Anbar Awakening Council with the aim of preventing "sectarian sedition".

The Mehdi army has fought serious rebellions against US forces.

"We want a united and democratic Iraq that does not follow the occupation's agenda," Mr Mutairi said.

Mideast > Iraq

"We signed with them a pledge charter which we hope will be the nucleus of future agreements with other brothers, whether Sunni, Kurdish or otherwise."

Mr Sadr's followers have not always preached peace and co-operation.

His Mehdi Army, a Shia militia responsible for some of the sectarian killings in Iraq, has become one of the targets of the US-led surge.

But when the US began its security drive in Baghdad in February, Mr Sadr ordered his militants off the streets to avoid confrontation.

And during his recent absence from Iraq on security grounds, Mr Sadr withdrew six ministers loyal to him from the Iraqi cabinet, in an effort to press Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to set a timetable for a US troop withdrawal.

Sadr 'unstable'?

In a characteristically fiery sermon in Kufa, Mr Sadr led the 6,000 worshippers in the mosque in chanting: "No, no for Satan. No, no for America. No, no for the occupation. No, no for Israel."

However, the cleric urged his followers to use peaceful means of opposition.

The cleric's brand of nationalism and populism has made him a popular figure among Iraq's Shia Muslims, but it is not clear why he has chosen this moment to return.

Moqtada Sadr is one of the most important players in Iraq's complex sectarian and political mosaic, says the BBC's security correspondent Rob Watson.

One theory for his return is a desire to re-assert control over his militia, which is reported to be increasingly fragmented.

Mr Sadr may also see a chance to strengthen his position in the absence of his great Shia rival Abdul Aziz Hakim, who has left Iraq for medical treatment, our correspondent says.

One senior US official described Mr Sadr as a highly unstable 33-year-old whose own aides often find hard to predict.

If he pulls this one off, Moqtada will definitely rise in my evaluation of his historical relevance. But to accomplish a broad-distribution Sunni ally (there are many differences between Iraq's Sunnis) would be monumental labour and solomonic diplomatic skills.

Reflecting on this development as reported, one must recall Imam Sadr's longtime mainstay alliance with Iran's mullocracy. Thus, as only an Iranian establishmentarian could imagine, Sadr has orders to woo Iraq's Sunnis into alliance with the 30 Sadrite Shia members of the Iraq parliament, his 30,000 troops in his Sadrite Shiite militia, and a whole district of mostly-poor folk in xone of Baghdad called "Sadrland."

Politics: Iran: British sailors seized by Iran to prove what? -- a Kirschen cartoon

The British Sailors, an original cartoon by Yaakov Kirschner(c)April 2,2k7. Digitally republished with permission of the artist.

UN: Iran: UN's Security Council votes unanimously to impose the complete set of sanctions on Iran

CNN reports in breaking news (Mar24,2k7 posted EDT 4:00pm) the final outcome for Iran on its nuclear project:

UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Saturday to impose new sanctions on Iran because of its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program.

Western nations, including the United States, contend Iran is using the project to develop nuclear weapons, but Iran says the program will only be for civilian use.

The new measures follow a resolution adopted December 23 that prohibited trade with Iran in nuclear materials and ballistic missiles. It also froze assets of individuals and institutions involved in Tehran's nuclear programs.

Friday, just before the day of the vote, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy intercepted 2 British swiftboats with their 15 Brit sailors and marines who had boarded an auto smuggling ship in a disputed location, either in Iraqi wars or Iranian. Today, following the unanimous UN SC vote, Iran is claiming that the Brit military personnel have confessed to trespassing.

Regarding the Revolutionary Guard element, the reports, to my mind, suggest that perhaps a rogue faction or the dominant party in the RG has used the Brit anti-smuggling operation as an excuse to make its own statement regarding the UN's then-only-proposed-now-enacte4 sanctions against top commanders of the RG, among others similarly sanctioned. refWrite earlier this month (May16,2k7) carried the stunning report by Mohsen Sazegara, a co-founder of the Guard, as to its expansion and thirst for power within and outside Iran. (After a time in prison in Iran, this scholar escaped the country and now is a researcher at Harvard.)

The sanctions, agreed on last week by the six Security Council countries with veto powers, would ban Iranian arms exports and freeze the assets of 28 additional individuals and organizations involved in Iran's nuclear and missile programs. About a third of those are linked to the Revolutionary Guard, an elite military corps.

The resolution also calls for a voluntary travel embargo on Iranian officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders.

That both Russia and China joined in making the new sanctions unanimous, however, makes them less than fully credible. Especially in the case of China. Perhaps that is the clue to disciphering the obscure terminology of "a voluntary travel embargo." For now, I take that to mean each nati8on must decide for itself whether or not to impose the travel embargo, those who do bother to impose it now at least are not violating the "spirit of the sanctions." And Western diplomacy can work on bringing more and more countries to titen the travel embargo, which is expected to cramp the style of many of the Iranian leaders on the list.

As a matter of abstract principle, I don't think Iran should be denied the use of peaceful nuclear power, any more than any other nation. However, the Security Council with this second round of sanctions has made it clear that Iran is not trusted to restrict itself to peaceful uses. Further, the shadow of a nuclear-armed Iran would have a crippling effect on the independence of the Gulf States, who would continue only on the sufferance of the Persian Menace. For the Gulf States, there is for the most part also a sectarian differential between their Sunni heritage and the now-aggressive Shia heritage of Iran. The Gulf States don't want to be bullied by a nuclear-armed neibour dominated by Persian (Farsi) -speaking Shia.

Politics: Military: Iran's Revolutionary Guard

In a lengthy article in the Jewish magazine Forward, Mohsen Sazegara, a co-founder and former official of the Revolutionary Guard in Iran, writes a historical summary on "What was once a Revolutionary Guard is now a mafia" (Mar16,2k67). This excerpt focuses elsewhere than on the article's overall point about the Mafia-likeness itself, of RG). I selected the more-than-analogical reference to the Nazi Brownshirts (Gen. Rohm's SocialWorkers Army) and the succeeding passage that explains RG's cells thru-out much of the Arab MidEast. refWrite readers are urged to read the entire article.

" During the Iran-Iraq War, the Revolutionary Guard’s commander, Rezai, stated that the Revolutionary Guard must develop units specifically tasked with confronting opposition to the regime. I met shortly afterward with the head of Iran’s Judiciary Branch and asked him not to pursue Rezai’s plan. The only possible outcome from such an act, I warned, would be the creation of a force very much resembling the Nazi Brownshirts.

The head of the Judiciary Branch laughingly disregarded my suggestion. I should not bad-mouth the Nazis, he told me; at least they had some educated people among them. In the end, Rezai had his way, and so were created the “White Shirts” and other civilian groups entrusted with the task of intimidating and brutalizing any hint of opposition, a practice that still takes place today.

The Revolutionary Guard was no longer a people’s army, just another coercive force at the service of the ruling establishment. To solidify their hold on power, the same clique that has been running the Revolutionary Guard all these years prematurely removed a number of senior and able commanders, among them Davoud Karimi, the commander in Tehran.

The Revolutionary Guard also expanded beyond the air, ground and naval components approved by Khomeini in 1985. The Basij force, which had been created as a volunteer militia to help fight the war with Iraq, was transformed into a unit with paid elements who were tasked with confronting domestic opposition. And in order to carry out the Revolutionary Guard’s bidding in areas outside the country — Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan and, most importantly, Iraq — the Quds Force was created.

I once heard Hassan Abbasi, who was a member of the Revolutionary Guard’s strategic planning department, boast to students at Khajeh Nasir University that the Revolutionary Guard was making good use of the Hezbollah cells it had created in Lebanon and elsewhere. And the current president of the Islamic Republic, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, served with the Ramazan Unit of the Quds Force, participating in Iraq-related operations during the during the Iran-Iraq War. There should be no doubt about the Quds Force’s role in what transpired last summer in Lebanon, or in what is happening on a daily basis between Shias and Sunnis in Iraq."

More Info on Iran--Latest Developments:

World's major powers agree on Iran sanctions package

Iran Is Playing a Growing Role in Iraq Economy

UN: Ahmadinejad can speak before nations' sanctions vote