EconomicsGlobal: Russian Artic Shelf: Oil deal between Russia and BP, nixed by UK Labour's Miliband
BBC news [jan16,2k11]
various stuff from my thawt and life in a news-bedevilled world, word play and semiotic experiments, with Christian intent but in hopefully creative tension with culture of North America, both USA and Canada, both hither in Toronto and yon worldwide ...
BBC news [jan16,2k11]
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In the widely respected online and print journal, Foreign Policy, an important 2-page dispatch on the Georgian Republic, Azerbaijan, and Armenia (the trio are often gathered in the significant geopolitical expression "South Caucusus") is offered by author Haley Sweetland Edwards, "Iran's Near Abroad: Beset by global sanctions, Iran's leaders go local" (Sept20,2k10). [Here "local" means "regional."]
The nations of the South Caucasus -- all of which receive U.S. aid, investment and support to one degree or another -- have accepted Tehran's recent overtures of friendship graciously, but cautiously. Georgia alone has received a whopping $4.5 billion from Western funders in the past two years, and can't afford to burn bridges with Washington.While Georgia is nominally Christian (Georgian Orthodox Church) and Armenia with its affiliated enclave deep in Azeri territory, Nagorno-Karabakh are also nominally Christian (Armenian Apostolic Church), Azerbaijan is Shia Muslim.
"We're in a kind of Bermuda triangle here. Georgia needs U.S. support, but it needs friendly relations with its neighbors, too," says Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies in Tbilisi. While the United States has watched Iranian influence in the region closely, it has not yet insisted its allies cut ties with Tehran. "They understand we are a small nation, stuck in the middle. We have Iranian investors, Israeli investors, Turkish investors. We can't afford to alienate anyone. It is in our interest to keep Russia from having all the cards here," Rondeli says.
The Obama administration said Iran has offered new signs of a willingness to negotiate on its nuclear program, as Washington and other world powers pressed at the United Nations for an immediate resumption of a dialogue with Tehran. The comments, made by senior U.S. officials on Wednesday, came a day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told American journalists in New York that he saw no "alternative" but to resume negotiations with the international community on the nuclear issue.Couple this with revelations in the new Woodward book, Obama's Wars, that he thinks the USA can simply "absorb" terrorist attacks with his foot-dragging in the defense of Israel when Iran constitutes a "near and present danger" to our only ally in the MidEast, to put the Obama-Clinton envisaged talks with Iran and also the Bush policy being followed in regard to the Georgian Republic, into a geopolitical context, you will find yourself with much musing to pursue on these present realities.
Still, U.S. and European officials said they remain skeptical of Tehran's desire to negotiate an agreement to end or limit the Iranian [nuclear project].
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Labels: Armenia, Azerbaijan, economic development, oil, oil Iran, politicsGeorgianRepublic, politicsIran, Russia, SouthCaucusus geopolitical region
Brazil brokers a swap deal between Iran and Turkey regarding enriched uranium (nuclear grade) for use in a key Turkish medical project, but meantime the slow grind of Big-Power diplomacy reaches agreement on draft resolution to be presented for a vote at the UN Security Council. Reuters via Yahoo! News offers this May18,2k10 dispatch, "Big powers agree on Iran sanctions draft":
The United States handed the U.N. Security Council a draft resolution on Tuesday that would expand U.N. sanctions against Iran by hitting its banking and other industries for refusing to halt nuclear enrichment.The Security Council draft restricts Iran's international expansion of banking for nuclear-war purposes, and it specifically names the Revolutionary Guard's activities, alerting the world to the latter's insidious if clandestine manoeverings.
The 10-page draft, agreed by the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia after months of negotiations, also calls for international inspection of vessels suspected of carrying cargo related to Iran's nuclear or missile programs.
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Fiji Daily Post carries an Editorial that deserves thawtful consideration from friends of the island Republic around the world, "State of emergency brings peace to the nation" (May16,2k7). Hat Tip for the heads-up from correspondent Dr. Bruce Wearne. The Editor-in-Chief of the independent and courageous Fiji Daily Post is Dr. Robert Wolfgramm.
The decision to extend the state of emergency decree is a wise one. Without the furtherance of the decrees, the nation would surely disintegrate into violence of a scale sometimes warned about by our traditional prophets and doomsday commentators, but (thankfully) not witnessed on these shores in the past.I chime in, thinking Dr Wolfgramm has alerted us in the past to the antidemocratic and unconstitutional actions of the military in dismissing the elected governmtment of Quarase, while replacing it with an illegal "Interim" government by the self-appointed "guardians"--namely, the military. At this distance, I find myself trusting editor Wolfgramm, a principled Christian-democratic thinker.
Every passing day brings more economic slowdown and unrelenting signs of a military clamp-down on free speech of some of our alleged dissidents. Qarase remains island-bound and his court case appears moribund in the administrative and legal processes of the courts.
The SDL case likewise appears becalmed. The combination of an economic downturn with no sign of a speedy return to democracy, coupled with the selective repression of the freedoms of some, is a recipe for turning patience into anger. And if the bubble of security is going to burst, the question is when and what will trigger it. The Interim regime knows that and so it is to their great credit and for the safety of all citizens that we must all put up with more, not less, state of emergency. It is the only way to keep a lid on potentially growing dissent and mounting opposition to Interim control. That is to say, we are as far from satisfying the doctrine of acquiescence as we ever have been and may be even further now than we were on December 5.
Yes, there are a few scattered voices raised here and there in support of the interim regime, but their influence and representativeness, is far from known or acknowledged. On the other hand, anti-Interim websites proliferate. Until the conditions which give rise to opposition to the Interim regime are moderated or allayed completely - that is, until democracy is restored and in its train assistance packages refurbished to our ailing economy and the rights of dissidents respected - a state of emergency is the best option for the foreseeable future.
We must get back top democracy as a priority, but not if an all-out war between the political factions that currently divide the nation is allowed to erupt. The state of emergency may not be pleasant, but like a leash on a dog, it restrains tempers and lets most people walk the streets and sleep safely at night. It allows for a sense of well-being for most and ensures the nation is at peace.
SouthWest Pacific > Fiji
Undoubtedly there are countries who would want a SouthWest Pacific listening post and puppet showcase--Russia, even more so China, and not forgetting the India-heritage population-segment now in Fiji for generations, let's add India to this list. One or all of these could suddenly prioritize Fiji by offering an aid package that could outdo whatever the island Republic was receiving from elsewhere. To my mind, what argues against this scenario is the military leadership's apparent adulatory cultivation of American politicians and Survivor-escape tourist ventures. But, I don't think these affinities are enuff to push aside the constraining American reliance on the New Zealand + Australian sphere of influence in the SouthWest Pacific. [I've further thawts on all these countries in relation to Fiji, from the stamdpoint of world geostrategic reflection, but that's for another time; and I would pursue them in my Neo-Constantinian Horizons blog, not here in my refWrite frontpage column.]
Rookmaker Club geostrategic analysis
As to the proliferation of militant regime-overthrow bloggers (I may be forecasting instead of reporting by using the term "regime-overthrow" here, as such trends sometimes develop an inner dynamic all their own, sometimes becoming dominated by forces without a peaceful democratic society honestly in mind as their goal and at heart as their envisioned norm), Dr Wolfgramm states simply that "anti-Interim websites proliferate." Who is financing them, just the irate citizens that have had enuff? Or do we look to countries or corporations that would have an interest in financing such dissidents and which have a new or old interest in Fiji--an interst in Fiji not for its own sake, but for its value as a stepping stone to other countries in the region? Does China want a capitalist-communist pro-China base--a Hong Kong?, a Macao?, a Cuba--nearby its prized customers / espionage targets New Zealand and Australia? Just asking. Or, turning the question about, is such worriment precisely what the Interimist-military complex fosters and seeks to use as leverage in furthering its own ends. So the residual questio: whether only an Interimist fictional scenario is behind anti=Interimist support for anti-regime bloggers?, or whether a real political praxis by an expansive Chinese communo-capitalist state (for instance) is behind much / some / a few of the dissident bloggers?
Dr Wolfgramm concludes:
Until the conditions which give rise to opposition to the Interim regime are moderated or allayed completely - that is, until democracy is restored and in its train assistance packages refurbished to our ailing economy and the rights of dissidents respected - a state of emergency is the best option for the foreseeable future.Sadly, I have to concur. I do so out of a Christian-democratic neo-Constantinian anti-revolutionary framework of political values and geostrategic thinking. But the anti-revolutionary component has its limits, as does the neo-Constantinian.
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Labels: Australia, bloggers, China, corporations, geostrategic analysis, India, New Zealand, politics, politicsFiji, Rookmaker Club, Russia, SouthWest Pacific, state of emergency, USA
Radio Australia's website reports that Europe has taken quite seriously the renegade military coup d'etat, tho the ruinous militarism was far off in the SouthWest Pacific.
The European Union has told the military authorities in Fiji that it will stop development aid if it doesn't see enough progress on a return to democracy, human rights and media freedom.Meanwhile, serendipity itself is reconsidering its role in the Pacific, where Fiji has become the most pressing problem of New Zealand's foreign relations.
Lee Duffield reports from Brussels the European Commission has put conditions on Fiji, that it needs to get back to democratic government and fully restore human rights.
Its spokesperson Amadeu Altafaj said that was a condition, for Fiji to receive assistance.
"If the responses are not satisfactory of course we will have to take measures in terms of suspending partially or totally our aid," Amadeu Altafaj says.
Strictly humanitarian aid is not affected.
SouthWest Pacific > Republic of Fiji
Other foreign sources, as well, have indicated Fiji's development aid may be cut-off if the failed Republic doesn't check its military (which means the military itself must backtrack, as there's no other internal force that can oust it). That is, Fiji's military must backtrack to its barracks -- unless it wants to exacerbate to the level of a major disaster the already-weakened economic situation that has descended on Fijians since the coup.
And, while the military's interim Foreign Minister is off to India, guess who's showed up for the financial presentation of the military's interim Economics Minister? None other than Russia! Perhaps it wants to buy an island, perhaps establish its own offshore Crimean Paradise, a series of beachfront skyscraper hotels for all those big spenders from Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Stalingrad.
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Labels: development aid, EU, militarycoup, NewZealand, politics, politicsFiji, Russia
Whew!, Washington Post in a lengthy report by Edward Cody, filing from Beijing, "North Korea Agrees to Nuclear Disarmament" (Feb13,2k7) gives a postive hopeful construction of NorKor's latest diplomacy. Here's an introductory excerpt to this very important article:
In a landmark international accord, North Korea promised Tuesday to close down and seal its main nuclear reactor within 60 days in return for 50,000 tons of fuel oil as a first step in abandoning all nuclear weapons and research programs.The actual first transaction may well take place, but it remains to be seen if Cody's optimism plays out in the longer term. One may have acquired, as have I, a general skepticism regarding anything NorKor agrees to. Despite any skepticism , without nuclear-energy even for peaceful purposes, it's obvious that NorKor needs what would be its "alternative energy" supply of oil for a myriad of non-military energy purposes (in a very cold winter climate, to say the least). Is this a concrete small step toward the peace of the world? I do hope so. But I'll be watching the more dobuting account that will appear [has now appeared!] in China e-Lobby.
North Korea also reaffirmed a commitment to disable the reactor in an undefined next phase of denuclearization and to discuss with the United States and other nations its plutonium fuel reserves and other nuclear programs that "would be abandoned" as part of the process. In return for taking those further steps, the accord said, North Korea would receive additional "economic, energy and humanitarian assistance up to the equivalent of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil."
The pledges -- in an agreement reached here by North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the United States -- marked North Korea's first concrete commitment to carry out an agreement in principle, dating from September 2005, to relinquish its entire nuclear program. In the view of U.S. and allied diplomats, they also amounted to a down-payment on establishment of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula and a new set of relations among the countries of Northeast Asia.
"The parties reaffirmed that they will take positive steps to increase mutual trust and will make joint efforts for lasting peace and stability in Northeast Asia," the accord said. "The directly related parties will negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate separate forum."
In a statement issued by the White House, President Bush said he was pleased with the agreement. "These talks represent the best opportunity to use diplomacy to address North Korea's nuclear programs," he said. "They reflect the common commitment of the participants to a Korean Peninsula that is free of nuclear weapons."
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, the chief U.S. nuclear negotiator, qualified the first-step accord as "a very solid step forward."
"We're moving off the pages of the September '05 agreement onto the ground," he added. "We have an initial set of actions, and then we have a peek into the next phase, which would involve the dismantling of the facilities."