PoliticsSyria: Transition: From peaceful protest to armed revolution ...

refWrite comment:  It looks like the Martin-Luther-King-style of protest, peaceful direct action, has only brawt a continuous slawter of Syrians opposed to the Alawite tyranny headed by Bashir Assad and his Baathist Party.  Finally, a rebel Free Syria Army, including increasing numbers of defectors from the regular Syrian Army, has emerged to visiblity — even in the suburbs of Damascus.  Jeremy Bowen and his Damascus team are digging up the facts "on the ground," as they say.  How much is the developing revolution, with Turkey's help but China's and Russia's resistance, following in the footsteps of the Egptian revoluttion? or the Tunian? or the Libyan? It is difficult to say, much less know, given the volatility of the situation/s in most of the Arab revolutionary states and rebellions where as yet control by the new forces is lacking, and the uniqueness of each.

What we do know of the Syrian uniqueness, Syrian exceptionalism (if you will), is its up-till-now connectedness with the Iran theocrats acting thru their allies in Lebanon, the Hesbollah Party there under Shia mullah, Nasrullah.  Insisting upon being in the governing coalition, Hezbollah has cultivated a parallel state (one m+t almost say).  Earlier Syria had cultivated it, now Syria is cultivated by it.  On the other hand, Turkey is sponsoring the Syrian Free Army, and Saudi Arabia as a good Sunni neibor which had opposed Hezbollah in Syria is now again a good Sunni neibor in Alawite-controlled Syria with its Baathist Party holding t+t to the reins of this now galloping steed.  A clan/tribe in Saudi Arabia is rushing assistance to its offshoot in sourthern Syria.

I think Syria will have its revolution, and Assad's tyrannous regime will be overthrown.  And from a long-term perspective I and refWrite can support it; what must come, must come.  But in the shorter term, it's provably most l+kly that the present tyranny of the minority will be replaced Egypt-style by a tyranny of the majority, most l+ly again a Sunni majority — or an alliance of Sunni and Shia l+n'd up against a minority consisting of Alawites, Christians, with splinters from the other main forces as well as secularists who want all sorts of religiously-motivated power configurations out of the way in the country's politics of the future.

Most distressing to me, is the report below carrying the sentence:  Assad "can still can count on most of the Alawite community he comes from - also on many Christians - and significant numbers of Druze and Kurds. "  But this was Assad's and his father's strategy all along — with %10 of the population belonging to the Alawite Muslim clans/tribes, and %10 of the population being Christians whose communities go back to the t+m of Saint Paul's mission to Damascus, to which total %20 was augmented by the communities of the Druze and the Kurds,  it only remained for the Alawite-dominated coalition to win to itself factions from the Sunnis and Shia.  The Shia as mentioned, already had linkages to Assad thru the Shi'ite Hezbollah in Lebanon, financed by the Shia mullocracy in Iran.  In this the Christians woud be ent+rly on the wrong s+d, except that some apparently are clearly on the s+d of the Syrian revolution, or woud l+k to be.  Hopefully, the revolution will turn nonsectarian tho united against Assad's Alawite Baathists; hopefully, the revolutionary forces will not freeze out the Christians, Druze, Kurds, and even some Shia, but instead welcome them.


— Politicarp, refWrite Frontpage political columnist

Follow @Owlb
general editor, refWrite Frontpage




28 January 2012 Last updated at 05:29 ET

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Syria rebels gain foothold 

in Damascus

by Jeremy BowenBBC Middle East editor, Damascus

Watch Jeremy Bowen's video reports from Syria over the past 10 days

Continue reading the main story

Syria Crisis

• Sliding into civil war?
• Complex and bloody drama
• Homs maps and videos
• Army under pressure

When the BBC team approached a checkpoint set up by the rebel Free Syria Army in the suburbs of Damascus, masked men with Kalashnikov assault rifles and hand grenades moved towards us - a few of them offering dates and biscuits.

It is customary to give mourners something sweet, and a funeral was about to start that they said they were protecting.

I had no idea before I saw them with my own eyes that the Free Syria Army was so active in and around Damascus.

Read more ... click the t+m stamp below ...

SyriaPolitics: Condoleeza Rice: Pinpoints the possiblity of a Civil War in Syria

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CNN (November 20,2k11)
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Of course, Dr Rice doesn't mention why now there's the prospect of 'Civil War' — namely, becawz the horrible regime in Damascus that mowed down its peaceful protestors and demonstrators who were trying to win change from the regime's barbarism, by Martin Luther King,Jr-style peaceful direct action.  It was not respected and did not prevail.

When members of the regime's armed forces deserted Assad, and some regrouped to form a militia in Turkey, and thereup Turkey recognized the armed counter-regime entity, they made an insignificant (as it were) foray into Syria and did some shooting of the regime's forces (military or civilian?, I don't know).

Thus, Dr Rice can now speak out and refer to the dramatic change that the very existence of a counter-regime military force signifies.  And it's made its initial attack.

— Politicarp
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Rice: Assad pushing Syria to 'civil war' By Justin Sink - 11/20/11 10:54 AM ET The Hill (November 20,2k11) Read more ... click the time-stamp below ...

PoliticsSyria: Revolution: Armed ex-Assad forces plan incursions into Syrian homeland from Turkey

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Change.org is a very leftwing political-activist outfit.  Their recent email newsletter made me take notice of a pernicious element of the Syrian govt's deadly hanky-panky.  Here is the item:

The Syrian government has already killed more than 3,500 people trying to put down pro-democracy protests since March. Now Western tech companies are helping Syria roll out a massive new weapon to quash dissent: a tool to monitor and locate Internet users.

The new weapon is one of the most sophisticated surveillance systems in the world -- using it, the Syrian military could quickly find individuals uploading YouTube videos documenting human rights abuses or using Twitter to organize protests. Soldiers could then go door-to-door taking out activists. Syria's democratic movement would go dark.

Syrian activist Anas Qtiesh has teamed up with the group ACCESS to launch an urgent petition on Change.org to prevent four American and European companies from supplying technology and expertise to the regime to get the system off the ground. Will you sign ACCESS and Anas' petition to get the Western companies behind the surveillance system to end their contracts in Syria immediately?

Despite growing international pressure, the Syrian government continues killing civilians all over the country. And the military is starting to hone in on social media as a way to take down the pro-democracy movement. Amnesty International has documented the interrogation of one detained Syrian activist in which soldiers tried to get him to log into his Facebook account -- so they could go after his friends, too.

Two of the four companies involved (Qosmos, NetApp, Area and Ultimaco) have already responded to public pressure saying they want to withdraw from the project -- but nothing concrete has been done yet. Unless public outcry grows to a volume they can’t ignore, these companies won’t pull out their equipment and services -- and the cost will be in more lives lost.

Please sign ACCESS and Anas' petition to shut down development of Syria's deadly new weapon against activists, and then send it to everyone you know:

http://www.change.org/petitions/demand-us-and-european-cos-stop-supporting-deadly-syria-net-surveillance

Thanks for being a change-maker,
- Weldon and the Change.org team

Syria

The tide turns against Bashar Assad

As the violence inside Syria intensifies, governments in the region and beyond are turning against an increasingly beleaguered president

Nov 19th 2011 | CAIRO AND DAMASCUS | from the print edition

THE city of Homs, the third-biggest in Syria, is close to civil war. Sitting astride a sectarian fault-line between the city’s mainly Sunni centre and an area to the north-west dominated by members of the Alawite faith, a minority Muslim sect whose followers form the core of Bashar Assad’s regime, it is now the hub of the conflict. In the past fortnight, more than 100 people in the city are reported to have been killed. The security forces are struggling to regain control.
Between Homs and Idlib in the north-west, Mr Assad’s men, despite an increasing proliferation of checkpoints, are facing tougher opposition than ever before. After months of mainly peaceful protests, Hama, Syria’s fourth city, to the north of Homs, is becoming more violent too. Across the country, the scale of bloodshed has increased, as a growing number of defectors from the army, along with civilians who have been acquiring weapons in greater numbers, have joined the fray. On November 16th army defectors attacked an intelligence base in a Damascus suburb. The nationwide death rate in the past fortnight may, say human-rights monitors, have doubled, with nearly 400 people perishing so far this month....Though central Damascus and Aleppo, the second city, have yet to witness violence on the scale of Homs and Hama, dissent is growing there too. Most notably, big businessmen who had hitherto sided with the regime have been taking their assets abroad and vacillating in their support for Mr Assad, whose family have long cultivated an effective culture of crony capitalism. Even among Christians and Alawites, whose communities each make up around a tenth of the populace and who have feared Mr Assad’s replacement by a Sunni and perhaps Islamist regime, loyalty to him may be less assured than before....
Of the other regional heavyweights, Turkey, the neighbour with the biggest punch, has been fiercest in calling for Syria’s regime to reform or die. Its government hosts the main political opposition, the Syrian National Council (SNC), and harbours the leaders of the Free Syrian Army, a burgeoning group of defecting soldiers. More recently Turkey has threatened to cut off electricity to northern Syria....

 — Materials from Change.org and The Economist reposted here by Politicarp

PoliticsLibya: War: Arab Revolutions and Govts support generally but some suspicious of Western colonialism

Guardian (Mar20,2k11)

Libya: the Arab view

Compared with the war in Iraq, regional reactions to western involvement in Libya have been cautious and muted

Martin Chulov with additional reporting by Enas Ibrahim

• guardian.co.uk, Sunday 20 March 2011 17.30 GMT

Update:  We Are All Khaled Said the famous Egyptian revolution's news disseminator:  has tweeted another Guardian story:  Mohamad Nabbous was the first voice I heard on Free Libya Internet station on 17 Feb. He spoke for all Libyans & encouraged them to stand up for their rights & protest peacefully before Gaddafi's forces opened fire on them. He risked his life to spread international awareness about Libyans struggle just like I tried to do for Egypt on this page. Mohamad was killed in battle on 19 March.

Mohammad Nabbous, who set up an independent internet TV station in Benghazi, has been killed

Many Gulf states that condemned the war in Iraq have no reservations about coalition attacks on Gaddafi's forces. Photograph: Sipa Press / Rex Features

Egyptians strongly endorsed amendments to the country's constitution yesterday as aftershocks from the Arab spring revolts rumbled into the furthest reaches of the region.

More than 77% of the estimated 14 million-plus people who voted supported changes that will provide a blueprint for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held within the next six months.

Voting was mostly problem-free across the country, a significant result in a country that is emerging from more than three decades of dictatorship, when elections merely served to rubber-stamp ousted president Hosni Mubarak's rule, and voter turn out was low.

Elsewhere in the Arab world, tentative calls for democratic freedoms were met with force in both Saudi Arabia and Syria. In the Syrian town of Daraa, a second day of clashes with state security officers reportedly left one protester dead, in addition to the four reported killed yesterday.

A council building in the centre of town was burned down during the clashes. Some reports claimed it was a local headquarters of the Baath party, however they could not be verified.

In Saudi Arabia, where demonstrations are banned, protesters tried to force their way into the interior ministry in Riyadh demanding the release of prisoners who they said had been detained for up to two years without trial. Around 15 people were arrested, but no serious violence was reported.

However, the spectre of protests in the Saudi capital is something the Islamic kingdom's leader, King Abdullah, has been trying to avoid as he battles to contain an uprising in Bahrain on his northern border. The Saudi government holds grave fears that the Shia protests in Bahrain could stir unrest in eastern Saudi Arabia, which is home to most of the 12% Shia population.

Bahrain's rulers yesterday claimed to have uncovered a plot involving outside powers – an implicit reference to neighbouring Iran. The government asked Iranian diplomats to leave the tiny Gulf state and later called Lebanon's Hezbollah a terrorist organisation that was destabilising the region and impinging on Bahrain's sovereignty.

The unusually vehement tones underscore the sensitivity in the Gulf, where all the petro-states have been under pressure from their citizens to introduce widespread reforms.

Bahrain is in its second week of a three month period of martial law, which was introduced after weeks of violent clashes between citizens and riot police. The clashes have taken on a sectarian tone that the kingdom is anxious to play down.

Meanwhile, in the south of the Arabian Peninsula, the embattled leader of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, yesterday sacked his cabinet in the latest of a spate of moves designed to cling on to power. The clean sweep came two days after a massacre of more than 40 unarmed pro-reform protesters in the capital, Sana'a, which has drawn widespread condemnation and placed further pressure on Saleh to step down after more than 30 years in office.

The attacks on Libya have left the Arab world largely mute, unlike the opposition voiced before the last western assault on an Arab capital eight years ago.

Amid unrest and rebellion across the Middle East, a clear distinction has been made between the invasion of Baghdad and the bombing of selected targets in Libya. The former was widely condemned by many states that have had no such reservations about the bombing of Gaddafi's forces by US and European planes.

A key reason for that appears to be the west's stated desire not to overthrow Gaddafi but to leave his fate to be determined by Libyan citizens.

However, as the air campaign entered its second day, cracks began to appear in the regional solidarity on show last week when the Arab League voted in support of military action to protect civilians.

Read more of this superb overview by clicking the live-link just preceding or the green blog-entry headline above. - Politicarp

PoliticsSyria: Economics: Syria's Bashar Assad advances economy, while clinging to autoritarianism and alliances with Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran

Under the title "Reforms transform Syrian economy, but not politics," by Associated Press via Yahoo! News, we get an updated bird's-eye view of a country usually seen from an Israeli perspective in much of the English-speaking world. But AP is claiming that the anti-Israeli identity has receded as the raison d'etre of Syria's current regime. Yes, the new entrepreneurs are "licensed" on the basis of polite intrigues and sycophancy by the govt sponsorsponsorship[, one imagines. Neverthless, the evidence of wealth has given Damascus and other urban centers a conspicuous cafe-life. Tho, of course, the gap between the rich (including now the new money), and the poor with the same old, same old, remains.

We need a better look at the universities and education. Are they increasing and receiving more students? What disciplines are growth zones of thawt in Syria? How are hospitals and the medical profession, with its specialists, faring?

While technically the Syrian state is still at war with Israel, one doesn't see Syria as planning and spending for that eventuality, if its putting money into hospitals and universities, and educating a new generation in a wide spectrum of professions.

One wonders how the ancient Christian communities of this country are faring these days.

Politics: Iraq: Fissures and mistrust, war politics of Sunnis in Anbar Province, Iraq's neibours, oil production shortfall

Washington Post published a detailed overview of the current situation in Iraq in the immediately preceding period. The article by Sudarsan Raghavan explains why there is a stalemate in the Iraqi parliament, where seemingly completed negotiations come undone quickly, sometimes allegedly because Prime Minister al-Maliki signs a document for which he doesn't have a consensus. He seems to have a presidential view of his office, but he lacks the support of the pro-Iran Shia of the Sadrist sect who have withdrawn their 6 ministers from the cabinet, while keeping their 30-member delegation in parliament with reps on at least two key committees thereof. Mr. Raghavan's important coverage is entitled "Baghdad's Fissures and Mistrust Keep Political Goals out of Reach (Apr26,2k7).

With the parliamentary stalemate in the background, the "war on the ground" continues. Looking at it from the various Iraqi points of view, while recalling that it is supposed to be for them "a sectarian civil war," pure and simple, we find the fascinating developments in the mostly-Sunni province of Anbar. There the Iraqi Sunni tribal leaders are turning against their foreign fellow Sunnis, Al Quaeda in Iraq. The forces of the anti-AlQuaeda chieftans have knocked off some of the AlQaeda leaders in the last week or so. They are saying that once the Americans are gone, the real problem will be these foreign fanatical fellow Sunnis, reports Sam Dagher in Christian Science Monitor. The "warlords" are on the warpath in a self-interested alliance with the USA against Al Qaeda. Sam Dagher in a second report, "Sunni Muslim sheikhs join US in fighting Al Qaeda -- Iraqi tribal support is linked to drop in violence in Anbar Province" (May3,2k7).

MidEast > Iraq

In yet a third dispatch the same Sam Dagher asks
"Can US sustain Anbar success?--While Al Qaeda in Iraq has been largely driven out of Ramadi, the US is hoping to build on the gains by fixing basic services and mediating tribal hostilities" (May4,2k7).

At the same time as the parliamentary stalement and the encouraging developments of the shift among the Sunnis, CSM carries a further report by
Howard LaFranchi regarding the just-concluded regional conference that included both Syria and Iran, with representatives of which US Secretary of State, Mdme. Condoleeza Rice, met. "Iraq's neibors wei next steps after regional conference --
Participating countries – including Syria and Iran – now face the test of fulfilling promises of security and economic aid" (May3,2k7).

But, cumulatively the juncture of the parliamentary stalemate and the shift of many Sunnis away from Al Qaeda in Anbar Province and the tenuous break-thru with various Iraqi neibours make all the more important what Peter Grier discusses under the title, "Iraq's oil production falls short of goals -- Despite years of rebuilding, petroleum production continues to fall short of targets, due to insurgency vandalism, poor field management, and corruption" (May7,2k7). At the same time, the success/failure of the oil industry in the country is dependent upon the disposal of the anticipated profits down the line. Which Iraqis--Shia, Sunnis, Kurds (also mostly Sunnis)--which of these will benefit from the oil fields is a key problem that impacts upon the three big problems: parliamentary stalemate, Sunnis breaking with AlQaeda, and again the neibours.

Ethnicity: Iraq: Black Iraqi refugees, refugees driven into Jordan and Syria

After running yesterday's blog-entry with the historical background on the Black people of Iraq, today I received in my email, a newsletter from Christian Aid entitled "Missions Insider" (there is a website, but the search engine does not yield any online articles resulting from my search terms). It contained the picture and text below, which illuminates and updates yesterday's historical material.

Every day thousands of Iraqis flee their country due to the continuing sectarian violence, poverty, lack of basic infrastructure, unemployment, and civil unrest. Nearly 20% of Iraqis are living below the poverty line.

Most Iraqi refugees take shelter in the Arabic-speaking countries of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. Many of them have never heard the gospel. One Christian Aid-supported ministry, covertly working in the Middle East, has found that these refugees are often open to the gospel. Christians have a multitude of opportunities to reach out to these refugees, who are left without the aid of the government.

Once away from their family, friends and culture, refugees frequently question their native religions. Despite the great challenge, ministries in Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are taking this important opportunity to share the gospel with Iraqis.

Jordan: Approximately 700,000 Iraqi refugees are living in Jordan with limited legal status. While wealthy Iraqis fled to Amman and live very well, most suffer from poverty and lack basic necessities. Often they have left behind all of their belongings. The flow of refugees continuously increases, yet international aid has decreased. Indigenous ministries tackle the basic yet increasing needs in Jordan by providing food parcels to the refugees. One ministry, which has started many churches throughout the country, is distributing these parcels containing sugar, rice, tomato paste, canned meat and oil.

Syria: Indigenous ministries continue to facilitate the distribution of food parcels and Bibles to needy Iraqi families in Syria. These ministries also support a medical clinic to provide needy patients with free medical prescriptions. Now that more than 1 million Iraqi refugees live in Syria, representing more than 5% of the country's population, Syria has decided to prohibit Iraqis from entering the country. Since 2003, with the high influx of refugees, food and housing prices have skyrocketed. Children comprise 48% of the Iraqi refugee population in Syria. Although permitted to attend school, Iraqi children are discriminated against. Education provided by Christians is always welcomed and appreciated by this marginalized group. Two Christian Aid-supported ministries in particular have opened schools for Iraqi children. Because Syria does not issue work permits to Iraqi refugees, most adults are either unemployed or working illegally. Syrian ministries are providing vocational training for jobs that refugees can legally perform.

Now I'm finding additional attention to Iraq's history of enslaving Blacks and the Black communities that survived even thru Saddam Hussein's day, but of whom many are now among the flood Iraqi refugees in surrounding Arab countries. I've seen no new info yet on whther these people tend to be Sunnis or Shi'ites or both.

More Info:

'Black Iraqis' and African Heritage in an Islamic State [audio, NPR, Tony Cox]

News & Notes, January 6, 2005 · NPR's Tony Cox talks with Theola Labbe of The Washington Post about so-called "black Iraqis" -- Iraqis of African descent -- and how they identify race, class and culture in an Islamic state.

Richard Prince's Journal-isms (Jan19,2k4)

Blacks Are an Intrinsic Part of Iraqi Society

The black presence in Iraq became the subject of the second piece in a major newspaper in a week's time. On Saturday, the Los Angeles Times devoted its "Column One" space to a report by black journalist Ann M. Simmons.

"Blacks are an intrinsic part of Iraqi society, and generally are treated as such. Some have ascended to significant positions in academia, trade and other professions. Like other Iraqis, they speak Arabic, and most are Muslims belonging to the country's Shiite majority or the Sunni minority," she wrote.

Simmons said that, "For now, the demise of the former system has left government agencies and administrative departments in disarray, making access to statistical information on the ethnic breakdown of Iraq's population of 23 million difficult to obtain. Still, some academics put the number of Iraqis of African decent at about 1%, though others believe that figure could be as high as 5%."

The previous Sunday, the Washington Post ran a piece by Theola Labb�, "A Legacy Hidden in Plain Sight," that focused more on the cultural connections between black Iraqis and Africa.