PoliticsSyria: Transition: From peaceful protest to armed revolution ...

refWrite comment:  It looks like the Martin-Luther-King-style of protest, peaceful direct action, has only brawt a continuous slawter of Syrians opposed to the Alawite tyranny headed by Bashir Assad and his Baathist Party.  Finally, a rebel Free Syria Army, including increasing numbers of defectors from the regular Syrian Army, has emerged to visiblity — even in the suburbs of Damascus.  Jeremy Bowen and his Damascus team are digging up the facts "on the ground," as they say.  How much is the developing revolution, with Turkey's help but China's and Russia's resistance, following in the footsteps of the Egptian revoluttion? or the Tunian? or the Libyan? It is difficult to say, much less know, given the volatility of the situation/s in most of the Arab revolutionary states and rebellions where as yet control by the new forces is lacking, and the uniqueness of each.

What we do know of the Syrian uniqueness, Syrian exceptionalism (if you will), is its up-till-now connectedness with the Iran theocrats acting thru their allies in Lebanon, the Hesbollah Party there under Shia mullah, Nasrullah.  Insisting upon being in the governing coalition, Hezbollah has cultivated a parallel state (one m+t almost say).  Earlier Syria had cultivated it, now Syria is cultivated by it.  On the other hand, Turkey is sponsoring the Syrian Free Army, and Saudi Arabia as a good Sunni neibor which had opposed Hezbollah in Syria is now again a good Sunni neibor in Alawite-controlled Syria with its Baathist Party holding t+t to the reins of this now galloping steed.  A clan/tribe in Saudi Arabia is rushing assistance to its offshoot in sourthern Syria.

I think Syria will have its revolution, and Assad's tyrannous regime will be overthrown.  And from a long-term perspective I and refWrite can support it; what must come, must come.  But in the shorter term, it's provably most l+kly that the present tyranny of the minority will be replaced Egypt-style by a tyranny of the majority, most l+ly again a Sunni majority — or an alliance of Sunni and Shia l+n'd up against a minority consisting of Alawites, Christians, with splinters from the other main forces as well as secularists who want all sorts of religiously-motivated power configurations out of the way in the country's politics of the future.

Most distressing to me, is the report below carrying the sentence:  Assad "can still can count on most of the Alawite community he comes from - also on many Christians - and significant numbers of Druze and Kurds. "  But this was Assad's and his father's strategy all along — with %10 of the population belonging to the Alawite Muslim clans/tribes, and %10 of the population being Christians whose communities go back to the t+m of Saint Paul's mission to Damascus, to which total %20 was augmented by the communities of the Druze and the Kurds,  it only remained for the Alawite-dominated coalition to win to itself factions from the Sunnis and Shia.  The Shia as mentioned, already had linkages to Assad thru the Shi'ite Hezbollah in Lebanon, financed by the Shia mullocracy in Iran.  In this the Christians woud be ent+rly on the wrong s+d, except that some apparently are clearly on the s+d of the Syrian revolution, or woud l+k to be.  Hopefully, the revolution will turn nonsectarian tho united against Assad's Alawite Baathists; hopefully, the revolutionary forces will not freeze out the Christians, Druze, Kurds, and even some Shia, but instead welcome them.


— Politicarp, refWrite Frontpage political columnist

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general editor, refWrite Frontpage




28 January 2012 Last updated at 05:29 ET

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Syria rebels gain foothold 

in Damascus

by Jeremy BowenBBC Middle East editor, Damascus

Watch Jeremy Bowen's video reports from Syria over the past 10 days

Continue reading the main story

Syria Crisis

• Sliding into civil war?
• Complex and bloody drama
• Homs maps and videos
• Army under pressure

When the BBC team approached a checkpoint set up by the rebel Free Syria Army in the suburbs of Damascus, masked men with Kalashnikov assault rifles and hand grenades moved towards us - a few of them offering dates and biscuits.

It is customary to give mourners something sweet, and a funeral was about to start that they said they were protecting.

I had no idea before I saw them with my own eyes that the Free Syria Army was so active in and around Damascus.

Read more ... click the t+m stamp below ...

PoliticsArabZone: WSJ list: Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Algeria, Palestinian Authority, Iran, and of course Tunisia and Egypt

Wall Street Journal carries a summative dispatch by margaret Coker, Matt Bradley, and Tamer El-Ghobashiny that overviews "demands for similiar political reforms" that have already "swept across the Arab world ... following the resignation of [Egypt's] President Hosni Mubarak.

Caution your optimism, however.  Iran is trying to co-opt the revolutionary virus, vainly imagining it can steer Arab youth in its own direction (Iran is not Arab, but Persian predominately).   Gaddafi's regime in Libya has been given almost a full week to prepare its troops and goons to smash the scheduled mass demonstrations planned for Thursday, Feb18,2k11.

Not mentioned on WSJ's list, both Jordan and Lebanon are still two cawt in their old ways, too impacted by stalemates (at best) that divide the new generation, apparently thus preventing the launch of any genuinely new initiative.  Don't look for any real change in these countries unless the new generational in Iran seizes its moment against the Ayatollahs, and wins.  More likely, the Iranian state woud use massive repression by its army and its Revolutionary Guards before a real chance were opened.  At the moment, Syria seems to have made its own separate peace with the agents of Iran who put the former country into the Iranian Ayatollah's orbit.

Three factors must be weighed in most of these countries:  women, Sunni vs Shi'ite differences in each population, and the size and entanglements of the Christian population in each of these countries where it exists.

-- Politicarp

Israel: Iran: Israel must juggle negotiations with Palestinians, threat of nukes from Iran, massing Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Gaza under Hamas

New York Times (July 6, 2010), report by Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Mark Landler:

President Obama said Tuesday that he expected direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians to begin “well before” a moratorium on settlement construction expired at the end of September, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel pledged to take “concrete steps” in the coming weeks to get the talks moving.

Don't miss the following detail:

--><. Saudi Arabia: We will not give Israel air corridor for Iran strike - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News> (Monday, August 23, 2010)

Ethnicity: Iraq: Black Iraqi refugees, refugees driven into Jordan and Syria

After running yesterday's blog-entry with the historical background on the Black people of Iraq, today I received in my email, a newsletter from Christian Aid entitled "Missions Insider" (there is a website, but the search engine does not yield any online articles resulting from my search terms). It contained the picture and text below, which illuminates and updates yesterday's historical material.

Every day thousands of Iraqis flee their country due to the continuing sectarian violence, poverty, lack of basic infrastructure, unemployment, and civil unrest. Nearly 20% of Iraqis are living below the poverty line.

Most Iraqi refugees take shelter in the Arabic-speaking countries of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. Many of them have never heard the gospel. One Christian Aid-supported ministry, covertly working in the Middle East, has found that these refugees are often open to the gospel. Christians have a multitude of opportunities to reach out to these refugees, who are left without the aid of the government.

Once away from their family, friends and culture, refugees frequently question their native religions. Despite the great challenge, ministries in Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are taking this important opportunity to share the gospel with Iraqis.

Jordan: Approximately 700,000 Iraqi refugees are living in Jordan with limited legal status. While wealthy Iraqis fled to Amman and live very well, most suffer from poverty and lack basic necessities. Often they have left behind all of their belongings. The flow of refugees continuously increases, yet international aid has decreased. Indigenous ministries tackle the basic yet increasing needs in Jordan by providing food parcels to the refugees. One ministry, which has started many churches throughout the country, is distributing these parcels containing sugar, rice, tomato paste, canned meat and oil.

Syria: Indigenous ministries continue to facilitate the distribution of food parcels and Bibles to needy Iraqi families in Syria. These ministries also support a medical clinic to provide needy patients with free medical prescriptions. Now that more than 1 million Iraqi refugees live in Syria, representing more than 5% of the country's population, Syria has decided to prohibit Iraqis from entering the country. Since 2003, with the high influx of refugees, food and housing prices have skyrocketed. Children comprise 48% of the Iraqi refugee population in Syria. Although permitted to attend school, Iraqi children are discriminated against. Education provided by Christians is always welcomed and appreciated by this marginalized group. Two Christian Aid-supported ministries in particular have opened schools for Iraqi children. Because Syria does not issue work permits to Iraqi refugees, most adults are either unemployed or working illegally. Syrian ministries are providing vocational training for jobs that refugees can legally perform.

Now I'm finding additional attention to Iraq's history of enslaving Blacks and the Black communities that survived even thru Saddam Hussein's day, but of whom many are now among the flood Iraqi refugees in surrounding Arab countries. I've seen no new info yet on whther these people tend to be Sunnis or Shi'ites or both.

More Info:

'Black Iraqis' and African Heritage in an Islamic State [audio, NPR, Tony Cox]

News & Notes, January 6, 2005 · NPR's Tony Cox talks with Theola Labbe of The Washington Post about so-called "black Iraqis" -- Iraqis of African descent -- and how they identify race, class and culture in an Islamic state.

Richard Prince's Journal-isms (Jan19,2k4)

Blacks Are an Intrinsic Part of Iraqi Society

The black presence in Iraq became the subject of the second piece in a major newspaper in a week's time. On Saturday, the Los Angeles Times devoted its "Column One" space to a report by black journalist Ann M. Simmons.

"Blacks are an intrinsic part of Iraqi society, and generally are treated as such. Some have ascended to significant positions in academia, trade and other professions. Like other Iraqis, they speak Arabic, and most are Muslims belonging to the country's Shiite majority or the Sunni minority," she wrote.

Simmons said that, "For now, the demise of the former system has left government agencies and administrative departments in disarray, making access to statistical information on the ethnic breakdown of Iraq's population of 23 million difficult to obtain. Still, some academics put the number of Iraqis of African decent at about 1%, though others believe that figure could be as high as 5%."

The previous Sunday, the Washington Post ran a piece by Theola Labb�, "A Legacy Hidden in Plain Sight," that focused more on the cultural connections between black Iraqis and Africa.