FrancePolitics: Cabinet reshuffle: French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, veers to Christian Democrats

Shay Riley, editor of Booker Rising blog (Nov22,2k10), grabs a note for us from the Financial Times (UK).


France:   
Centrists attack Sarkozy 
for shifting to a more conservative stance 

French centrists ain't feeling French President Nicolas Sarkozy's cabinet reshuffle. From the Financial Times (Britain):  "Earlier in his presidency, Mr Sarkozy was accused of gimmickry by members of his own party for appointing ministers who were young, inexperienced or left-leaning. Now Mr Sarkozy is facing criticism from former allies and opponents alike for reverting to narrow factionalism. Mr [Hervé] Morin [who heads the New Centre party allied to President Sarkozy's center-right UMP party] said the new government looked like 'an RPR election campaign team', a reference to the old Gaullist party of Jacques Chirac, subsumed into the UMP. Jean-Marie Bockel, another ejected minister, said the reshuffle amounted to a 'closing of ranks around one political family in the governing party'. Mr. [Jean-Louis] Borloo [who is the former defense minister] wants to try to rally the various centrist factions with a view to mounting his own presidential bid in 2012." "Mr Sarkozy’s reshuffle could renew old rivalries between the Gaullists and the more [classically] liberal Christian [D]emocrat wing, which in the past have often divided the centre-right and kept it out of the Elysée palace. However, the flip-side of Mr Sarkozy’s rightwing shift is that it may provide greater political clarity ahead of the 2012 election to voters who have been confused by the president’s numerous U-turns and mixed messages."

Mr Riley is himself an astute observer of political spectrums, and spotted this detail regarding the factionalism that persists between the Gaullists and the Christian Democratic wing of the umbrella party, UMP.  Another section of the Christian Democrats never joined under the UMP umbrella, and I'm presently uncertain as to whether they support the Sarkozy govt in the French Parliament.

-- Politicarp

Politics: France: UMP under Sarkozy set to win increased representation in parliamentary elections

Javno carries a Reuters story about France's upcoming parliamentary elections, Sarkozy UMP Extends Lead -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP political party could win up to 460 seats in parliamentary elections to be held later this month (Jun2,2k7):

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP political party could win up to 460 seats in parliamentary elections to be held later this month, four times as many as the opposition Socialists, according to a poll on Saturday. The IFOP poll for Sunday's Journal du Dimanche newspaper put support for the UMP and Socialists steady at 41 percent and 27 percent respectively, but movement in support for other parties meant Sarkozy's UMP was forecast to win more seats than before.

France's parliamentary elections are due to be held over two rounds on June 10 and 17. A big win for the UMP would cement Sarkozy's grip on power after he was elected president on May 6.

The survey projected the UMP could win 420 to 460 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly compared with a projected 410 to 450 in IFOP's previous survey and 359 currently.

The Socialists were seen winning 80 to 120 seats compared with a previously forecast 90 to 130 and down from 149 now.

The Socialists are having their own fierce internicene battle, with some of their candidates standing firm for orthodox Socialism-by-peaceful-means and others seeking seats on the basis of a turn of the Party to social democracy which accepts capitalism but seeks to control it and promotes a a strongly welfarist-capitalism under a social-democratic government and an all-powerful all-responsible state (little sphere sovereignty or sphere-responsiblity for other societal spheres), as in many other European countries. In France, one could well imagine that in due time the present SP will split in two (SP vs. SDP).

The main loser in the poll was Francois Bayrou's new centre-right Democratic Movement, with support falling to 9 percent from 12 percent.

Europe > France

Bayrou's party said it would distribute thousands of orange flowers in Paris on Sunday -- Mothers' Day in France -- in an effort to drum up support.

Another story, this time from a marginal Trotskyite websource Indymedia Bay Area offers a telltale report, in its own desultory way, on Sarkozy's deft navigation among the splintered vote-pools of the French political panorma, "France: Guy Môquet, Sarkozy and the Stalinist school of falsification" (Jun2,2k7):

"After his official installation as French president May 16, Nicolas Sarkozy’s first engagement was a memorial ceremony to fallen Resistance fighters against the Nazi occupation of France during the Second World War.

Sarkozy used the event to issue his first presidential decree: the obligatory annual public reading in schools of Guy Môquet’s letter to his family shortly before his execution by a Nazi firing squad on October 22, 1941. Sarkozy intends this to serve as an example of “heroism” and “sacrifice” for the “nation.” The 17-year-old Môquet was a member of the Young Communists.

The visit to the memorial ceremony and his proclamation about the letter brings to light an important historical episode that reveals the counter-revolutionary essence of French Stalinism.

The latter expression is Trot-speak for France's Communist Party which at one time commanded 20% of the vote, while in the last election the orthodox Communists garnered 1.6%. However, together with the half-a-dozen other small ultraleft parties that have picked up refugees from the Commies, the total of the whole farleft wing is about 10%--who largely voted against Sarkozy in favour of the mainstream Socialists.

The initial indignation of French Communist Party (PCF) leader Marie-George Buffet at Sarkozy’s cynical use of Môquet’s death to promote nationalism during his election campaign was short-lived. “The reading of Guy Môquet’s last letter before his execution is a strong message,” she declared, after Sarkozy had pronounced his presidential decree, “because this young man was a patriot through his engagement in the Resistance, but also because his combat for the emancipation of humanity had a goal, that of constructing a Republic of rights and liberties in a democracy.”

Buffet’s servile falling into line with Sarkozy reinforces the latter’s attempts to present himself as president of “all the French.”

With such gestures, Sarkozy seems intent on chipping away at his opposition to win more seats in the Parliament than even Jacques Chirac could muster. For his interim cabinet, Sarkozy has named at least one Socialist to an important ministerial portfolio.

Politics: France: Winnipeg Free Press gives an entirely alternative understanding of immigrant voters in France

Pembroke Daily Observer carries an Editorial in Winnipeg Free Press May12,2k7) that records how h+rise-housing immigrants voted in the recent Presidential election in France. I noted the absence in the press of mention regarding how these districts voted, but I did notice what the Free calls "a bit of stone-throwing and car burning."

Sarko also did well among blue-collar workers, to the chagrin not just of the Socialist Party's regular supporters, but also of that 10% who voted for ultraleft parties in the first round (where now the enfeebled Communists took only 1.6% of the vote, as against the 20% of the national vote they once commanded in 1st rounds, before they came to the aid of the Socialists in the 2nd round).

In the bitter run-up to the final round of the French presidential election on Sunday, Socialist party candidate Segolene Royal suggested that a win for her right-wing rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, would bring an explosion of ethnic violence to France.

In the wake of Mr. Sarkozy's substantial victory, there was a bit of stone-throwing and car burning at the Place de la Bastille in [downtown] Paris, but nothing like the riots of 2005 that Ms. Royal was trying to resurrect as a fear in French minds, reminding them that as interior minister at the time, Mr. Sarkozy had referred to the rioters as "scum.''

In fact, in those areas, the banlieues, or immigrant ghettos of France where the riots took place, Mr. Sarkozy did surprisingly well when the votes were counted, taking 44 per cent of them. He did surprisingly well among blue collar workers between 46 and 52 per cent across the country. He won the support of the greater part of voters who had supported centrist Francois Bayrou in the first round of voting. In short, French voters stood French politics on its ear and confounded the pundits by breaking away from tradition all of those [who] are Ms. Royal's more natural constituencies.

The election result may rejuvenate France, which is in danger of becoming the sick man of the European Union. Mr. Sarkozy promised that change, with 100 days of action to implement economic reforms, including a longer work week. France's mandated 35-hour work week, the shortest in Europe, is widely blamed for its deplorable productivity rate and competitiveness, a dismal 27th in word rankings; its high unemployment; and its extraordinarily high debt-to-GDP ratio. Mr. Sarkozy promises to address all those issues, and his victory indicates that the French agree with him, at least in principle.

France would seem set for change but Mr. Sarkozy's triumph is also a boost for Canada and the Western alliance. France is naturally a major player, an integral ally in that relationship, but under outgoing President Jacques Chirac, it was a difficult, even a disagreeable one. Mr. Sarkozy is an unabashed defender of the alliance and an admirer of the United States, although no one is likely to accuse him of being America's poodle. Rather, he will try to keep America in step with France and France in step with America, even if that takes some serious double-stepping, enabling the West to present a stronger front in an increasingly fractious world. As a former leader of the Western alliance might have said, on both fronts, domestic and international, the news from France is very good.

That Sarko did "surprisingly well" among blue-collar workers, gaining an estimated 46 to 52 per cent of their votes nationwide, is a factoid worth meditating. This factoid suggests that a good chunk of featherbedded workers now realize that the country must become competitive soon. It would be most interesting to see what the Transport workers did with their votes, as they are among the worst blackmailers among unionized employees when it comes to demanding exorbitantly h+ wages. But France does have a much more entrenched viewpoint pluralism in its system of workers-representation, with parallel unions functioning on the same shop floor, and often bargaining nationally. As I recall, however, France does not have collective agreements with the force of binding contracts, but only "agreements" that settle a strike, etc.

Politics: France: Sarkozy wins Presidency of France on Conserve platform, Socialists crumble into deep divide

Bloomberg's Celestine Bohlen reports "Sarkozy Signals Shift in France's Ties With US, Europe" (May7,2k7)

Nicolas Sarkozy, in his acceptance speech after being elected president last night, signaled a shift in tone in France's relations both with the United States and Europe.

``I want to call out to our American friends to tell them that they can count on our friendship,'' said Sarkozy, a half hour after he was declared the winner. He also threw down a challenge to the U.S. to take the lead in the fight against climate change.

Similarly, he said ``France is back in Europe,'' while adding that the European Union should listen more closely to the citizens it is supposed to protect.

Sarkozy's approach marks a change from the policies of the outgoing President Jacques Chirac [12 years in office], who set himself up as an opponent of the Bush administration on a number of issues, most notably on the US-led invasion of Iraq [altho France is a NATO participant in the Afghanistan War].

Chirac has also been held responsible for the defeat in May 2005 of the proposed European constitution in France, which is one reason why the European Union's attempts to modernize have come to a halt. ...

He called for a return to a foreign policy based on France's historic commitment to human rights.

``I want to tell all those in the world who believe in the values of tolerance, liberty, democracy and humanism, that France will be at their side, that they can count on her,'' he said.

Bloomberg again: reporter Francois de Beaupuy, "Sarkozy Claims French Mandate to Push Tax-Cut, Labor Measures" (May7,2k7).

Nicolas Sarkozy claimed a mandate for change after his election as French president, pledging to unify the country as he began promoting a program of tax cuts, tougher prison sentences and tighter immigration rules.

``The people of France have chosen to break with their ideas, habits and behavior of the past,'' Sarkozy, 52, said late yesterday in a victory speech in Paris after congratulating his Socialist opponent, Segolene Royal. ``I will restore the value of work, authority, morals, respect, and merit. I'll restore national pride and national identity.''

Sarkozy, candidate of the governing Union for a Popular Movement [UMP], took 53.2 percent against 46.8 percent for Royal, the Interior Ministry said, with 96 percent of the vote counted.

Provided his party wins June parliamentary elections, lawmakers will be asked to vote on a budget that scraps payroll charges and income taxes on overtime hours. It would also eliminate inheritance taxes for all but the richest 5 or 10 percent and introduce a tax deduction for mortgage-interest payments.

Criticized as divisive and dangerous by Royal, 53, during the campaign, Sarkozy may not have much of a honeymoon. He has said he would push through a law in September requiring a minimum level of service by transport workers unless unions negotiate a deal by the end of summer. An impasse may lead to strikes that could set the tone for the rest of his presidency. ...

`Casus Belli'

``Transport reforms could be a casus belli,'' said Nicolas Sobczak, a Paris-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ``But it's hard for grass-roots unionists to mobilize with Sarkozy winning with a big margin.''

Strikes crippled the French economy for three weeks in 1995, when Chirac unsuccessfully tried to reduce pension privileges of public-sector workers in his first year.

Sarkozy also risks running into opposition from public- sector employees because he has pledged not to replace half of the civil servants retiring over the next five years and to roll back some transport workers' pension benefits. ...

Sarkozy inherits an economy whose share of European exports is shrinking and whose growth is likely to lag behind Germany's for a second year. The jobless rate of 8.7 percent is the highest among the 13 nations that share the euro.

He blames the 35-hour work week, above-average taxes, and generous unemployment benefits for discouraging initiative and holding down salaries.

To boost hiring, Sarkozy, who was Chirac's interior minister and finance minister for four years, has pledged that his government will confer with business federations and labor unions by the end of the year to make firing procedures quicker and more predictable in exchange for increased unemployment benefits and extra training for jobseekers.

Sarkozy says he'd make students' earnings tax free and [promised] to give universities more autonomy to manage their staff and real estate and to create partnerships with businesses.

Chirac's successor, who campaigned on law and order, said he'd introduce a law in July [after June elections for a new Parliament] that toughens sentences for repeat offenders, and a separate law that will aim from preventing immigrants who don't have a job and an apartment from being joined by family members.

He also faces hurdles abroad. Sarkozy, who made criticism of the European Central Bank one of his campaign staples, may also clash with fellow European Union leaders on Turkey. He opposes the nation's entry into the 27-nation EU. Negotiations on Turkey joining the EU, approved in 2005, are partially suspended amid a dispute over Cyprus.

In his post-election comments he urged ``our European partners not to remain deaf to the anger of people who see the EU as a Trojan horse'' for globalization.

Bloomberg in a third report features the loser in France's two-way election last nite, a story by Helene Fouquet and Sandrine Rastello, "Royal's Election Loss Tolls `End of Era' for French Socialists" (May7,2k7):

Segolene Royal's loss to Nicolas Sarkozy in yesterday's presidential election amplified divisions among French Socialists that may fracture the nation's second- biggest party.

A leadership purge won't be enough to heal the split between [Socialist party] skeptics of global capitalism and [that party's social democrats] who seek an alliance with centrist Francois Bayrou, who finished third in the April 22 first round, said Bernard Kouchner, a former Socialist health minister.

``This is the end of an era, the end of French socialism,'' Kouchner, 67, said in an interview.

Royal's six-point loss to Sarkozy marked the party's third straight defeat in presidential elections and followed a rout five years ago. In 2002, Lionel Jospin failed to make it into the runoff against Jacques Chirac when he was beaten by anti- immigration leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.

``They had five years to reinvent themselves, but instead of starting over from scratch, they took the same people and stayed where they were,'' said Etienne Schweisguth, a senior fellow at the Institute for Political Studies in Paris. ...

``You know what social democracy means? It means compromising with the right wing and at the Socialist Party we're against that,'' David Assouline, a Socialist senator from Paris and a Royal campaign aide, said in an interview on May 4.

Sensing the looming defeat, Socialists had already begun campaigning for what they call the ``third round'' -- the legislative elections on June 10 and June 17. ...

``Even Communist China has taken the road of capitalism, even them,'' Kouchner said. ``Is France the only country where we will keep thinking capitalism is perverse, vulgar and dangerous?''

Each of these stories is worth clicking-up to read in their entireties, along with the title-link from Reuters that appeared in Times of India. However, the Bloomberg trio of stories by Celestine Bohlen, by Francois de Beaupuy, and by Helene Fouquet and Sandrine Rastello taken together are exceptional as an au courant source. Even in my foreshortened excerpts, the reader has access to a veritable course on the current political situation in France. This sustained non-repetitive reporting speaks well also for Bloomberg.com (click for the frontpage) which basically focuses on on financial and business news.

In my opinion Sarkozy is going to have one hell of a term of office, because France is featherbedded as no other country on Earth. And all the featherbedded "workers" and their unions, who opposed giving non-white youth better job-market chances (easy to hire, easy to fire) in small businesses (therefore non-unionized) out of sheer racism-socialism will fite the new President tooth and nail from his first day in office to his last. We wish him good luck, because at present France can't compete with in Europe, let alone globally.

Politics: France: Election earthquake 2 weeks ahead?

In UK's New Statesman, David Lawday tells us that "The days of grandeur are over" (Apr9,2k7) for France. Lawday notes that the leading candidate, Nicholas Sarkozy of the centre-r+t UPM party, admires the Brits for their economic system and will probably work quite constructively with Tony Blair's soon-to-be-successor Gordon Brown. However, if elected Sarkozy may have more heft in the European Union than many would like. He opposes EU admission by Turkey, and opposes the further expansion of the EU generally--to countries like Ukraine or Moldava of the former Soviet bloc. Will he grovel before Russia?, which itself will be electing a new President, probably a Putinite. Where Sarkozy will also have much heft abroad will be in former French colonies in black Africa. But he must move delicately there. Arab North African countries, especially former French colonies there, are those to which he will have an even harder time relating. Both zones are quite leery of Sarkozy's previous anti-immigrant stances while he was until recently France's Minister of the Interior.

Whoever wins France's presidential elections will enjoy more power than any other western leader. Expect big changes in foreign policy, from America to Africa.

Tony Blair has had pretty much of a free hand to act. The job of British prime minister offers the freedom to chalk up personal triumphs, but also to get things horribly wrong. All on one's own. Now look across the Channel. The personal dominance allotted to the winner of France's presidential elections far exceeds even that which Gordon Brown is about to inherit.

It's hard to think of any politician in the western world who can look forward to wielding greater personal power than either Nicolas Sarkozy or Ségolène Royal, one of whom - this is a safe-ish prediction - will shortly occupy the Élysée Palace. True, [outgoing French President] Jacques Chirac looks anything but omnipotent as he limps to the end of his mandate. But that is because he has lacked the legitimacy which Sarkozy or Royal will have: he brought his own fate on himself by sacking parliament, then winning re-election by a strange landslide that was no reflection of his popularity because the run-off opponent he faced was the far right's aged prince of xenophobia, Jean-Marie Le Pen, with whom four in five voters wouldn't share a baguette.

Slick writing to be sure, Mr Lawdy, and quite ins+tful, as far as your article goes.

Sarko or Sego in France, we're witnessing a new generation coming to power in the Western political zone: Bush gone, Blair gone and Brown in (I'd guess), Merkel continuing at least for a while (she having displaced the Social Democrats), Putin gone and who knows who will replace him. In the Netherlands, Balkenende counts on the replacing-generation side, as far as I'm concerned. The turmoil in Ukraine needs solution drastically--can Europe help? Kosovo--will it obtain independence, as I think it should? Would Sarkozy welcome that Muslim-majority country into the EU, along with Albania, also Muslim-majority?

In Sarko's case, I see how he handles the religion factor, most delicately in regard to Muslims in France but in relation to all these other larger European questions, as perhaps his primary task and dificulty. He has indicated some affinity to a less severe and idiotic secularity for France, less outrageously hostile to Christianity, Judaism, and Islam, but not servile to extremist religious movements either.