Politics: France: Election earthquake 2 weeks ahead?

In UK's New Statesman, David Lawday tells us that "The days of grandeur are over" (Apr9,2k7) for France. Lawday notes that the leading candidate, Nicholas Sarkozy of the centre-r+t UPM party, admires the Brits for their economic system and will probably work quite constructively with Tony Blair's soon-to-be-successor Gordon Brown. However, if elected Sarkozy may have more heft in the European Union than many would like. He opposes EU admission by Turkey, and opposes the further expansion of the EU generally--to countries like Ukraine or Moldava of the former Soviet bloc. Will he grovel before Russia?, which itself will be electing a new President, probably a Putinite. Where Sarkozy will also have much heft abroad will be in former French colonies in black Africa. But he must move delicately there. Arab North African countries, especially former French colonies there, are those to which he will have an even harder time relating. Both zones are quite leery of Sarkozy's previous anti-immigrant stances while he was until recently France's Minister of the Interior.

Whoever wins France's presidential elections will enjoy more power than any other western leader. Expect big changes in foreign policy, from America to Africa.

Tony Blair has had pretty much of a free hand to act. The job of British prime minister offers the freedom to chalk up personal triumphs, but also to get things horribly wrong. All on one's own. Now look across the Channel. The personal dominance allotted to the winner of France's presidential elections far exceeds even that which Gordon Brown is about to inherit.

It's hard to think of any politician in the western world who can look forward to wielding greater personal power than either Nicolas Sarkozy or Ségolène Royal, one of whom - this is a safe-ish prediction - will shortly occupy the Élysée Palace. True, [outgoing French President] Jacques Chirac looks anything but omnipotent as he limps to the end of his mandate. But that is because he has lacked the legitimacy which Sarkozy or Royal will have: he brought his own fate on himself by sacking parliament, then winning re-election by a strange landslide that was no reflection of his popularity because the run-off opponent he faced was the far right's aged prince of xenophobia, Jean-Marie Le Pen, with whom four in five voters wouldn't share a baguette.

Slick writing to be sure, Mr Lawdy, and quite ins+tful, as far as your article goes.

Sarko or Sego in France, we're witnessing a new generation coming to power in the Western political zone: Bush gone, Blair gone and Brown in (I'd guess), Merkel continuing at least for a while (she having displaced the Social Democrats), Putin gone and who knows who will replace him. In the Netherlands, Balkenende counts on the replacing-generation side, as far as I'm concerned. The turmoil in Ukraine needs solution drastically--can Europe help? Kosovo--will it obtain independence, as I think it should? Would Sarkozy welcome that Muslim-majority country into the EU, along with Albania, also Muslim-majority?

In Sarko's case, I see how he handles the religion factor, most delicately in regard to Muslims in France but in relation to all these other larger European questions, as perhaps his primary task and dificulty. He has indicated some affinity to a less severe and idiotic secularity for France, less outrageously hostile to Christianity, Judaism, and Islam, but not servile to extremist religious movements either.