Politics: UK: Paisley says Yes (maybe) to nom as First Minister of Northern Ireland's Stormont (parliament)

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Irish Examiner carried a news report today by Harry McGee and Áine Kerr, "Stone intervention may have caused Paisley u-turn" (Nov25,2k6):

Heavily-armed loyalist killer Michael Stone’s outrageous attempt to storm the Stormont building yesterday may have contributed to the crucial change-of-heart by DUP leader, Dr Ian Paisley on power-sharing, it emerged last night.

The Democratic Union Party led by Paisely has been slow to accept "power sharing" in the UK-area of Ireland's island and source of immigrants to Scotland and England (Wales not so heavily over the last 100 years).

Europe > Britain > Northern Ireland

Trigger-happy crazed loyalist sets bomb devices in Stormont building before capture, defusing [BBC]

Paisley "will accept nomination" [BBC]

NI meeting suspended over bomb threat [Peoples Daily, Communist China]

If all goes in the direction Paisley outlines, then his own and his party's stature as a Christian-democratic party of Protestant-historical background will raise to a new level, tho still far from acceptance by the international organization of Christan Democrats.

-- Politicarp

More Info:

Christian political leadership from DUP evokes backlash within party

Recent background (Oct17,2k6 - BBC)

Tags: Ulster's parliament evacuaed

• politics
• politicsNI
• PaisleyIan
• DemUnionPartyNI
• Stormontattacked
• NILoyalistcrazy
• bombterrorist

Pope: Turkey trip: Benedict XVI prepares to visit the Ecumenical Orthodox Patriarch, the Greek Orthdox 'first among equals'

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A very knowledgeable and uptodate article comes from Turkey, an Associated Press dispatch, via All News Radio (680 Toronto). The author is Susan Fraser, "Pope's visit offers Turkey's Christians hope for improved religious rights," (Nov24,2k6). The visit occurs as the European Union sifts thru the Turkish legal system in all aspects, pinpointing areas of unacceptable statehood and doubtfully qualified for membership.

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - A Christian place of worship stands next to a false limb shop, on the ground floor of a dreary, four-storey apartment block in a run-down area of the capital. Kitchen chairs act as pews along the makeshift nave, and iron bars line the windows.

The 100-member Protestant congregation of the Ankara Kurtulus Church uses the rented space in the residential building because authorities have not responded to their request for land and a permit to build a proper church.

When Roman Catholic Pope Benedict visits mostly Muslim Turkey next week, he'll try to ease anger over his recent remarks linking Islam and violence. But he is also expected to press Turkey, which hopes to join the European Union, for improved rights for its tiny Christian community. That minority, at times forced to worship in so-called "apartment churches," has faced prejudice, discrimination and even assault.

"The Pope will discuss the rights of the religious minority" with Turkish officials, said Msgr. Luigi Padovese, the Pope's vicar in Anatolia. "In a secular country, people must have the right to believe in whatever faith they choose to believe."

The pastor of Ankara's Kurtulus Church, Rev. Ihsan Ozbek, said the Pope's visit offers hope for all Christians.

"It is a good opportunity to establish dialogue," Ozbek said. "We face serious problems. Turkish citizens who converted to Christianity, especially, face serious discrimination and violence."

Some 99 per cent of Turkey's 70 million people are Muslim. Turkey also has some 20,000 Roman Catholics, 65,000 Armenian Orthodox Christians, around 2,000 Greek Orthodox Christians, an estimated 3,500 Protestants - mostly converts from Islam - and 23,000 Jews.

Ironically, the Christian church has deep roots in what is today Turkey, a land that has also been the stage of Christian and Muslim confrontations, most notably during the Crusades.

The region hosted some of the most important Christian events, including the first Council of Nicea - in present-day Iznik - in AD 325, which established a Christian doctrine.

All seven major churches of early Christianity, mentioned in The New Testament, are in present-day Turkey. The Pope will make a pilgrimage to one of them at Ephesus.

Europe/MidEast > Turkey

St. John the Apostle is said to have brought the Virgin Mary to Ephesus, where she is believed to have spent the final years of her life, while St. Paul travelled through much of modern-day Turkey on his missionary journeys.

Constantinople - modern-day Istanbul - was the former Christian Byzantine capital for more than 1,000 years until 1453, when it fell to Muslim forces and became the seat of the Muslim Ottoman Empire.

Today, the city remains the centre of Orthodoxy, with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, considered "the first among equals" among the Orthodox leadership. Membership is dwindling.

The future of the Orthodox Church, however, is also threatened by the closure by Turkish authorities in 1971 of Halki seminary on an island off Istanbul, which trained generations of Greek Orthodox patriarchs. Turkish law requires that the patriarch be a Turkish citizen trained in Turkey. With Halki closed, a successor to Bartholomew may be hard to find.

The Armenian Orthodox community, whose seminary is also closed, faces the same challenge.

Both Greek and Armenian communities are struggling to recover property that was nationalized and confiscated in the 1970s.

Versions of Islam

Under EU pressure, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamic-rooted government has taken some steps toward improving the rights of religious minorities, changing laws to allow them to re-appropriate some lost property. The government has also indicated willingness to reopen the minority seminaries, but has failed to find a formula that conforms with the country's secular laws.

Even though Turkey is secular and Turks are considered moderately religious, conversion to Christianity is widely viewed as treacherous. Authorities often report students who attend Christian meetings to their families to prevent possible conversions. Some media portray converts and Christian clergy as missionaries or spies for western powers. Proselytizers are detained and extradited.

The mistrust is so deep that non-Muslims are barred from joining the police force or the military.

In February, a Turkish teenager shot dead a Roman Catholic priest, Rev. Andrea Santoro, as he knelt in prayer in his church in the Black Sea port of Trabzon, in an attack believed to be linked to widespread anger in the Islamic world over the publication in European newspapers of caricatures of Prophet Muhammad. Two other Catholic priests were attacked this year.

Nationalists have disrupted some church services. The Ankara Kurtulus Church, linked to the U.S.-based International Church of the Foursquare Gospel, has had its windows smashed twice by suspected nationalists. No one was injured.

Turkey, no matter what comes of its project of EU membership, must come to terms with its own ingenuous claim to be a "secular society" (and thus only the state-sponsored version of a civically-moderate Islam could be allowed to flourish). In other words, to prevent an Islam of several competitive streams--but together a vast majority in the society--to prevent this hag-ridden civic Islam from shattering, to stop absolutist contrary Muslim denominations from tearing the nation (and country) apart, the seemingly-trivial Christian minority composed of its own different denominations, this minority cannot be allowed to educate its own faith-leadership. The Jewish minority is composed of only 28,000.

Turkey must find a creative solution to the problem of certain fractious Muslim denominations or trends in non-mosque social formations, while at the same time easing up on the tiny Christian and Jewish communities.

-- Owlb

More Info:

In Turkey there'll be bi warn wekcin for Pope
Istanbul police to endure Pope's safety [AP via WaPo, Nov23,2k6)

Calendar: Belated: Yesterday was American Thanksgiving, and refWrite put on a feast

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We slipped up on our practice of making a calendar entry on holidays, holy days, and feast days in North America--yesterday having been American Thanksgiving.

refWrite was busy. We sponsored a Thanksgiving Feast for 7 Welfare people and 2 on Disability, and had a platter left over for the Landlord. Dishes were contributed by some friends as well. Rebekkah's pumpkin and apple pies were mentioned most often with the award-word "superb." Excellent vittles all around: Tom cooked the turkey with delicious filling, Big John made the tasty mashed potatoes and topped up the gravy, Carl cheffed the corn. He gave the publisher a dish-towel size USA flag; and he also worked long into the nite with the clean-up. All the folks and the staff, editor, and publisher of refWrite give Thanks and wish the Lord's blessings upon all our readers.

-- Albert Gedraitis, publisher

Politics: Canada/Quebec: Harper supports Quebec 'nation' w-i-t-h-i-n a united Canada, not separate nation

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Prime Minister Stephen Harper supports Quebec as the territorial homeland of the ethnographic entity of les Québecois, une nation, a nation within a united Canada. Like the Acadians in New Brunswick, a national-minority third of that province's population. Like the Metis in Manitoba. Like the Jews in Montreal and other cities and towns of Canada who avoid assimiliation, while others of that ethnicity choose instead to assimilate rather completely. Like the Ukrainians. But, most of all, of course, like the First Nations populations which have a certain historical priority even in Quebec where an extreme Quebecois nationalist set seems to resent the true First Nations. We could go on with these details of the Canadian sociographic profile.

I disagree with Harper in saying Quebec cannot separate (of course, that is an advocatory "cannot," as what can or cannot is simply what will have happened). If the Quebecois really want to take the other people of Quebec captive out of Canada and into an ethnically-driven enclave-state where the pure race Parizeau-style constitutes a supergroup based on consanguinity (samness of blood, same genetic pool, pure laine), plus the French language spoken thru the nose Quebecois-style (not as in France, not as in Haiti, not as in Congo), plus of course the province's historical-cultural background that implicates old-stock francophones, anglophones, and allophones thruout 5 centuries with all the province's continuities and discontinuities: if all that, then let them make up their minds that they can, and go.

The problem is that they can't make up their minds to go, because many pure-blood Quebecois simply don't want to separate from Canada. The incessant phoney belly-aching of a certain segment of the Quebecois political and cultural elites
keeps the province in a constant state of heartbreak and the rest of the country in a constant constitutional headache. Let Quebec sign the Constitution as is, or go. Or not. But why not? That's what the Bloc Quebecois (federally) and the Parti Quebecois (provinically) would like to provoke: a Canada with a permanent constitutional migraine, which finally results in exhaustion to the extent Canada says to Quebec: Go. But just as the BQ/PQ ideologues haven't persuaded the Quebecois to split and take the province with them as a priorietary possession of territory based on bloodlines, neither have they yet succeeded in provoking Canada to give them the boot. This is exactly what Gilles Duceppe wants. He raises S&M to the level of a political ideology. Many people in Quebec vote his BQ into the federal parliament, where he has functioned to his peak moment of separatist nationalism.

North America > Canada > Quebec:

There is no separate Quebec, no separate nation of Québecois. There is a distinct nation of Quebecois, not continguous with the jurisdiction of the Canadian political entity of the province of Quebec. If they (the Quebecois) want it (the territory of Canada's Quebec) so damn bad, then let them get with their program, make their political decisions and proceed to do what them want, do it one way or another. But this interminable whine from the Duceppistes .... Is that really what Quebec is about?

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Harper to comment on Quebec's status, by Tenile Bonoguore (Nov22,2k6)

PM says Quebec 'nation in Canada'

Quebecers form a nation within Canada: PM [CBC]

McGill Institute for the Study of Canada

Tags: Quebec/ois nation?

• politics
• politicsCanada
• HarperStephen
• DuceppeGilles
• BloqQuebecois
• BQ
• Quebecoisnation
• nationalism

Politics: Netherlands: AP distorts and attempts to erase important win of Christian Democrats in the Netherlands

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In a h+ly-slanted news report Associated Press via International Herald Tribune distorts the outcome of today's Dutch election which was a precedent-setting continuance in power as the leading party and coalition convener, Christian Democratic Appeal. AP in an unsigned article, "Champagne for the socialists following Dutch elections" (Nov22,32k6) treated the material in the report in such an erasive way that it has to be mined to get the real story which is carefully hidden by editor, headliner and writer. It speaks of the main figure only obliquely:

Both Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, whose Christian Democrats again won the most seats, and Labor Party leader Wouter Bos were quick to congratulate a potential coalition partner.

The story is actually about Dr Balkenende, whose party has consecutively won the largest number of votes in the last three elections in four years. Winning 44 seats in the 150-member Lower Chamber is an important placement for one of Europe's leading parties among the non-socialist confessional democrats and their allies in the European Peoples Union -- which bloc of parties across Europe group themselves in the largest contingent in the European Parliament. The Netherlands CDA, itself a union of Catholic and Protestant parties, is among the most sanely progressive and balanced in the world.

Europe > Netherlands

In the AP's desperate and dishonest gerrymandering of the story, it notes that at long last one statist socialist party (Socialist Party led by Jan Marijnissen, "a balding 53-year-old former welder, may have come in third") siphoned votes away from another statist socialist party (Labour Party, led by "city slicker" Wouter Bos who lost bigtime). Other than that, nothing changed much changed.

Bos blamed a "polarization of political debate" that also led to the far right, anti-Islamic[ist] Freedom Party [VVD] winning 9 seats.

Marijnissen represents a reaction to a reaction, a party of former Communists, "artists and intellectuals" -- while CDA continues steady on course, now with a new win and room to negotiate a bit more widely for new coalition partners.

In contrast to the news-manipulation in AP's story, the reader should click up the far superior reportage of Emma Thomasson for Reuters via Malaysia Star.

Still, if you want the real background on the difference between the statist socialist parties in the Netherlands, between Bos and Marijnissen, you have only to go back a few years to this report in Amsterdam Post (Feb15,2k3):

According to a police spokesman 35,000 to 40,000 people attended the peace demo against a war in Iraq.

The left wing elite was present, except for the Labour (PvdA) leader Wouter Bos. The Labour Party is not one of the participants. The party chairman Koole said yesterday that the demo is principally against any war. "There are moments when war is inevitable". He warned the Christian Democrats that the coalition talks would be over if Prime Minister Balkenende supports a war without an explicit UN Security Council mandate.

The Labour Party did not forbid its members of parliament to go, but the party as such does not approve of the demo. The opposition takes advantage of the absence of Bos. In the front line of the demo, SP leader Jan Marijnissen asks on the poster; "Have you seen this man?"

In short, SP is the pacifist-socialist extreme leftist statist party; Netherland's Labour Party is a non-pacifist-socialist statist party. So the problem may not be with the "city slicker" tag, but with Bos as the saner of the two socialist statist parties in the country. CDA is maligned by the ultraleft for being the party of big business, but this is carping by people who depend on business to create jobs and to pay for previous extravagant welfare expenses, which the Netherlands can no longer afford if wants to avoid the fate of Germany and France with their current slough of non-competitiveness and widespread unemployment.

Fortunately, IHT abandoned the craziness of the AP report by soaking up later dispatches from Bloomberg and Reuters. A quite informative news article can now be found also on the International Herald Tribune site, "Dutch voters moving to the left" (Nov22,2k6) -- however, not to "the far-left" nor to "the Left" but somewhat left after the CDA's correction of the economy since it was first elected to office four years ago. Hence, it was again re-elected as the leading party.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Pre-vote story by Irish Examiner, quite wrong about Wouters' challenge to CDA

Dutch recover their courage

Tags: ChristianDems lead Dutch vote

• politics
• politicsNetherlands
• electionNetherlands
• CDA
• BalkenendePieterJan
• Labour
• BosWouter
• SP
• MarijnissenJan

Assassination: Lebanon: Christian political leader opposed to Syria killed in political murder in Christian neibourhood

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Reuters journalist Nadim Ladki reports under the headline, "Lebanon minister shot dead, Hariri son blames Syria" (Nov 21, 2006):

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Gunmen on Tuesday assassinated Lebanese Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, an outspoken critic of Syria, plunging Lebanon deeper into a crisis over ties with its dominant neighbor.

At least three gunmen rammed their car into Gemayel's vehicle near Beirut, then leapt out and riddled it with bullets, firing at Gemayel with silencer-equipped automatic weapons at point-blank range in a Christian neighborhood, witnesses said.

Ten bullet holes were seen around the window of the driver's seat of his grey car. The two front seats were soaked in blood.

The son of assassinated former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri blamed Syria for the killing in the Sin el-Fil area, but Damascus condemned the murder.

The assassination is certain to heighten tensions in Lebanon amid a deep political crisis pitting the anti-Syrian majority against the pro-Damascus opposition led by Hezbollah, which is determined to topple what it sees as a pro-U.S. government.

MidEast > Lebanon

Gemayel, 34, was rushed to hospital where he later died of his wounds. Hundreds of angry and weeping family members and supporters gathered at the hospital.

"We believe the hand of Syria is all over the place," Saad al-Hariri, whose father Rafik was killed in a suicide bombing last year, said shortly after Gemayel was shot dead.

"Syria strongly condemns the killing," the official Syrian news agency SANA said. The Shi'ite group Hezbollah also condemned the "low criminal act" and urged an investigation. Continued...

I urge readers who want a solid perspective on MidEast politics and especially now again the current volatile situation in Lebanon to please click up the Reuters story (3 short pages) to read the article by Nadim Ladki in full.

To my mind there are three major suspects in this lastest Lebanese assassination: Hizbullah, Syria, and the turncoat Lebanese Christian (former General) Michel Aoun, who a year ago led his Christian party Amal into a pro-Syria pro-Iran alliance with the Shi'ite terrorist party Hizbullah which instigated the recent war with Israel. Amal and the (horribly-named) Phalange party are rivals for the Christian communities' votes.

-- Politicarp

More Info::

Syria, Iraq restor tie to combat militants

Economics: Pacific Rim: Asia-Pacific trade talks in Vietnam move to freer trade, blast North Korea's nukes

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In a wide-ranging set of actions in Hanoi, Vietnam, the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation body of 21 countires scored North Korea's bombast and urged the settlement of the World Trade Organization's "Doha Round" toward a worldwide agricultural treaty. Joseph Coleman reports online at ABC News, "APEC Calls for North Korea to Quit Nukes, Vows to Salvage World Trade Talks" (Nov19,2k6).

Eager to set the stage for further economic growth, Pacific Rim leaders on Sunday demanded a fresh start for moribund global free-trade talks and condemned terrorism and other threats to security.

The 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum including regional powerhouses Japan, China and the United States also criticized North Korea for its recent atomic test, urging the reclusive regime to make "concrete and effective" steps toward nuclear disarmament.

Asia-Pacific > Trade Summit

The conference of nations comprising more than half the world's economy was also a bazaar for business deals: host Vietnam parlayed its robust growth into multimillion-dollar contracts, while the U.S. and Russia signed a pact allowing Moscow's future entry into the World Trade Organization.

A top economic priority for the forum, attended by world leaders including President Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao, was the resurrection of the stalled Doha round of world trade talks, which collapsed in July over a U.S.-European feud on agricultural subsidies.

World Economy > Trade

The leaders issued a joint declaration warning of "grave" consequences if the talks, aimed at slashing trade barriers in order to boost global growth and alleviate poverty, fail. Bush's authority to submit a deal to Congress for a simple yes-or-no vote will expire July 1.

Among Canada's priorities for the APEC 2006 forum has been

Narrowing the gap between the rich and poor

Canada is committed to reducing the growing divide between rich and poor by helping developing countries get better access to the multilateral trading system. Often developing countries cannot benefit from more liberalized trade or advances in information and communications technologies because they do not have the infrastructure or technical expertise to take advantage of such developments. At the leaders' meeting, Canada wanted to see further commitment to APEC's economic and technical co-operation agenda, with a particular focus on this need for access to trade, and on helping more people gain access to the Internet, improving health conditions, promoting gender equality, and supporting small business.

In 2002, through the Canadian International Development Agency, Canada developed and is administering a multi-million dollar, multi-year program to support APEC initiatives to help developing countries build the capacity to participate fully in the world trading system. Canada has also developed a Web site listing the programs that APEC economies offer as part of these initiatives. As well, Canada and Japan are co-chairing an APEC group working to better co-ordinate this work.

It is difficult in the reportage of the now-concluded event any direct program to relieve extreme poverty in the countries signatory to the consultation, specifically not exclusing China which still has slave-labour camps and forced labour. Sadly also, with all that was accomplished for national economies and the elites that profit from them, yet there was no word of an effort by the regional body to calm serious internal strife in the three small island-countries of the Pacific--Fiji, Tonga, and Solomon Islands.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
Canada's 2k6 APEC Priorities

Tags: Asian-Pacific trade

• economics
• tradeworld
• tradepacificrim
• APEC2k6
• BushGeoerge
• HuJintao
• PutinVladimir
• HarperStephen

Politics: USA: Democrat pro-corruption Old Guard in House of Representatives fites back vs anti-corruption Dem New Guard

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Many Democrats in the USA House of Representatives are now weaseling on the anti-corruption rules and enforcement previously promised. New York Times in a major article by David D. Kirkpatrick, "Democrats split about overhaul for ethics rules" (Nov19,2k6) details twists and turns of Democrats sliding quickly away from the clean-up operation promised for both House and Senate, headed by Sen Barack Obama.

After railing for months against Congressional corruption under Republican rule, Democrats on Capitol Hill are divided on how far their proposed ethics overhaul should go.

Democratic leaders in the House and the Senate, mindful that voters in the midterm election cited corruption as a major concern, say they are moving quickly to finalize a package of changes for consideration as soon as the new Congress convenes in January.

Their initial proposals, laid out earlier this year, would prohibit members from accepting meals, gifts or travel from lobbyists, require lobbyists to disclose all contacts with lawmakers and bar former lawmakers-turned-lobbyists from entering the floor of the chambers or Congressional gymnasiums.

None of those measures would overhaul campaign financing or create an independent ethics watchdog to enforce the rules. Nor would they significantly restrict earmarks, the pet projects lawmakers can insert anonymously into spending bills, which have figured in several recent corruption scandals and attracted criticism from members in both parties. The proposals would require disclosure of the sponsors of some earmarks, but not all.

Now, though, some Democrats say their election is a mandate for more sweeping changes. Many newly elected candidates, citing scandals involving several Republican lawmakers last year, made Congressional ethics a major issue during the campaign. After winning the House on election night, ... Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader [now Speaker of the House], promised “the most honest, most open and most ethical Congress in history.”

North America > USA

Senator Barack Obama, an Illinois Democrat tapped by party leaders last year to spearhead ethics proposals, said he was pushing for changes with more teeth. “The dynamic is different now,” Mr. Obama said Friday. “We control both chambers now, so it is difficult for us to have an excuse for not doing anything.”

He is pushing to create an independent Congressional ethics commission and advocates broader campaign finances changes as well. “We need to make sure that those of us who are elected are not dependent on a narrow spectrum of individuals to finance our campaigns,” he said.

Sweeping changes, however, may be a tough sell within the party. Representative John P. Murtha, Democrat of Pennsylvania [famous for his antiWar campaign], was embarrassed by disclosures last week that he had dismissed the leadership proposals with a vulgarity at a private meeting. But Mr. Murtha is hardly the only Democrat who objects to broad changes. Senator Dianne Feinstein, the California Democrat who will oversee any proposal as the incoming chairwoman of the rules committee, for example, said she was opposed [to] an independent Congressional ethics watchdog. “If the law is clear and precise, members will follow it,” she said in an interview. “As to whether we need to create a new federal bureaucracy to enforce the rules, I would hope not.”

Apparently, some of the best of the lot of the Democrat Old Guard basically wants business as usual. In Feinstein's case, it has to do with former aides now serving as Fed lobbyists for various cities and counties of her home state, California.

This Old Guard pattern raises questions that the influx of anti-abortionists and other new Democratic Congressmen poised against the rabid Left in the party, may back the wider range of anti-corruption changes for which Sen Obama is calling.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

What the USA elections 2006 mean for people of faith, by Jim Wallis (Nov17,2k6)

What the USA elections 2006 mean for Religious Conservatives, by Deal Hudson (Nov15,2k6)

US leftwing Senator discusses Christian faith in the public square of a pluralist society (Jun19,2k6)

Tags: House Dems split on corruption

• politics
• politicsUSA
• Congresscorruption
• corruptionCongress
• ObamaBarack
• FeinsteinDiane
• MurthaJohn
• HudsonDeal
• WallisJim

Politics: Canada: Federal Tories and Grits Locked in a Statistical Tie – Turbulence for Tories in Quebec

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In Canada, I have long found the polling of Nik Nanos of SESresearch to be the most accessible, explanatory, and simply best (nnanos@sesresearch.com).

Recently, Nanos has reported on his soundings and their results regarding two important topics:

1.) Nov12,2k6 – Mixed bag for Liberal leadership hopefuls [Lib ldrshp survey]
2.) Nov16,2k6 – Federal Tories and Grits Locked in a Statistical tie
– Turbulence for Tories in Quebec

Here's "Nik Nanos on the Numbers" --

1.) Mixed bag for Liberal leadership hopefuls

In order to understand the possible impact of the new Liberal leader, SES has looked at the how Canadians voted in the last election and correlated that against whether Canadians would be more or less likely to vote Liberal under the new leader. Overall, it’s a bit of a mixed bag with no candidate having a clear advantage over the other.

However, of note – Bob Rae has the ability to attract some of those who voted NDP in the last election to the Liberal banner. Stephane Dion is a non-starter among [separatist Bloc Quebecois] in Quebec – not surprising considering his pro-federalist views. Michael Ignatieff generally trades off those he would attract compared to those he would not attract [eg, losing pro-Israel Jews for anti-Israel Muslims? - Politicarp], with the exception that NDP voters would be less likely to vote Liberal under an Ignatieff leadership. Gerard Kennedy could hold onto the Liberal vote in the last election but would have difficulty growing Liberal support [were elected Liberal leader].

Methodology Polling between November 5th and November 10th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Canadian Voters (N=1,002, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

Question: For the last federal election earlier this year, which party did you vote for locally (724 Canadians who provided an answer)

Conservative 37.5%
Liberal 31.0%
NDP 14.9%
BQ 12.5%
Green 4.2%

North America > Canada

Because of the complexity of the tables, you should visit Nanos' SES website at www.sesresearch.com to download the stats. Here are the highlights.

Ignatieff as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 16% (Among 2004 NDP voters 14%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 20% (Among 2004 NDP voters 29%)
No impact 47%
Unsure 17%

Rae as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 20% (Among 2004 NDP voters 30%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 24% (Among 2004 NDP voters 22%)
No impact 42%
Unsure 14%

Dion as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 14% (Among 2004 BQ voters 14%)
Less likely to vote Liberal 23% (Among 2004 BQ voters 29%)
No impact 48%
Unsure 15%

Kennedy as Liberal Leader
More likely to vote Liberal 12%
Less likely to vote Liberal 21%
No impact 50%
Unsure 17%

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the “SES Research National Survey.”

Cheers,

Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President
email: nnanos@sesresearch.com
web: http://www.sesresearch.com

......................................................

2.) Federal Tories and Grits Locked in a Statistical tie – Turbulence for Tories in Quebec (Nov16,2k6)

Look at the national numbers, the movement in voter preference is within the margin of accuracy for the poll. Check out Quebec – major turbulence for the Conservatives (down fourteen points). When the Conservatives focus on their five priorities their numbers move up but when the focus shifted to Afghanistan, pulling out of Kyoto and warm relations with George Bush the Harper shift noticeably eroded Conservative support in Quebec.

The main beneficiary of the Conservative drop has been the BQ [separatist Bloc Quebecois] (up eight points). This illustrates the appeal that the Harper-led Conservatives had among soft nationalists in Quebec.

It’s a little early for a victory lap for the Liberals. Quebec is the most volatile in support right now. The Conservatives need to hold and expand support in Quebec to stay in government, the Liberals need to win support to block the Conservatives.

The Liberal leadership will be critical to the fortunes of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. A divided Liberal party (or anything that has a whiff of inappropriate behaviour by a leadership campaign) will be good news for the Harper Conservatives. If the Liberals come out united and have a leader who can have some sort of appeal to Quebecers – they will be back in the game.

NEW! SES Research Blog!
I have launched my own blog “Nik on the Numbers” a new interactive blog where you can share your views, rate the opinions of others, and ask me questions about this poll or any other issue. Check it out today at www.nikonthenumbers.com.

Methodology Polling between November 5th and 9th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). The statistics of committed voters for the current wave is accurate to within 3.3 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. The margin of accuracy will be wider for sub samples. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Canada (N=884, MoE ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20)

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only) The change from the previous wave is in parenthesis.

National
Conservative Party – 34% (-2)
Liberal – 32% (+2)
NDP – 16% (-2)
BQ – 13%(+2)
Green Party – 5% (No change)

Quebec (N=224, MoE ±6.6, 19 times out of 20)
BQ – 50% (+8)
Liberal – 25% (+3)
Conservative Party – 12% (-14)
NDP – 10% (+2)
Green Party – 4% (+1)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the “SES Research National Survey.”

Cheers,

Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President
email: nnanos@sesresearch.com
web: http://www.sesresearch.com

The picture painted by the Nanos numbers, it seems to me, leaves the outcome of the next election (much more likely to take place some time relatively soon the Libs have chosen their new leader in early November). And then it could matter whether the Conservatives call the election pure and simple, stage a vote on a piece of legislation they declare to be a confidence moton, or simply wait until the opposition parties caucus turn down a Budget. There are few other options directly at the oppos' command for "bringing down the House" of Commons. Yet, there are many pieces of Tory legislation that the Tories themselves could tag as confidence motions.

-- Politicarp

More Info:

Bob Rae heads Lib leader wannabees in national election
Harper's Quebec Strategy (Nov7,2k6)

Economy: Labour: Canada follows Norway, leads Germany, UK and 14 other countries in re-employment optimism

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Statistically speaking, Canadians are more optimistic about their possiblities of re=employment should they lose a job. Roma Luciw reports in Globe and Mail, Toronto, on a survey of workers in 18 countries regarding re-employment chances:

Canadians are increasingly upbeat on their job prospects according to a poll that found more than half believe they could find a similar job with a comparable salary if they were handed a pink slip. ...

The poll by Toronto-based Right Management found that the number of Canadian workers who feel it is somewhat or very possible they could be laid off from their jobs in the coming year edged higher to 18.2 per cent from 17.5 per cent last May.

A third of Canadian employees said it would be “somewhat easy” or “very easy” to find another job for the same pay, up from 26.5 per cent in May. Fewer employees — 19.5 per cent compared with 27.5 per cent in May — said it would be “very difficult” for an unemployed worker to find similar work. But 44.2 per cent said it would be “somewhat difficult” to find work, up from 41.6 per cent.

North America > Canada

Canadian workers are “more concerned about future economic conditions, so there was a slight increase in the number who feel they may lose their jobs in the coming year,” said Bram Lowsky, the senior vice president and general manager of Right Management in Canada. “Employees are also more concerned about future economic conditions, so there was a slight increase in the number who feel they may lose their jobs in the coming year.”

In the 18 countries surveyed, Norway's workers were at the top of the heap in re-employment optimism; while German employees were near the bottom. ... The United Kingdom stats registered its workfroce as the most pessimistic of all. "In addition, 30.4 per cent of all workers in the UK felt they might lose their jobs within the next 12 months, up from 21.2 per cent."

They survey, called the Right Management Career Confidence Index, found the Canadian results to be the h+est in four years."

In my opinion, the last year with the scandal-ridden mendacious previous Liberal govt out of office at last, followed by the steady-as-you-go quality of the new minority Conservative govt's economic policies, has added to the RMCCI standing of Canada's workers. From the settlement of the forestry trade-policy to the fearless arrest of the scofftax move of Big Corporations into Income Trusts, the Conservatives have showed they sincerely search for equitable solutions, altho special interests line up against both achievements.

-- Owlb

More Info:

Re-employment optimsim as a mental health factor

An approach based on cognitive-behaviour therapy and Seligman's Learned Optimism {a lot of slanted assumptions in this psychological approach)

Antecedents and outcomes of coping behaviors among unemployed and reemployed individuals

Tags: Canada's re-employment optimism

• economics
• labour
• layoffs
• re-employment
• re-employmentoptimism
• Canada
• Norway
• Germany
• Britain

War: Israel: Celebrated cartoonist Yaakov Kirschner conveys the Gaza War news as in the Infomercial TV genre

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"Hard Sell," an original cartoon by the artist Yaakov Kirschner©Nov9,2k6.

Calendar: North America: USA and Canada solemnize memories of the wartime fallen today

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Canadians observe Remembrance Day

Canada which has now lost 30 of its warriors in Afghanistan, pauses today in that country and at home to remember all its dead in the great wars and peacekeeping operations.

Veterans Day observances USA

Veterans Day observances are being held across USA and among forces in Iraq, Afghanistan, military facilities around the world. A monthly online record of each man and woman lost, is kept by the Associated Press. Here are the faces and write-ups of those who gave the ultimate sacrifice in October 2006.

God grant that they may all rest in peace.

--refWrite

Juridics: Turkey: New law begins process of rectifying anti-Christian legal structure of Turkey

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Reuters India reports "Turkish parliament approves EU-sought religion law" (Nov10,2k6), but the law does not go far enuff, not being aimed at justice but at what amounts to a grudging acquiescence to the much more rigourous requirements of the European Union into which Turkey seeks admission as a member:

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's parliament approved on Thursday a law required by the European Union that will improve property rights of non-Muslim religious minorities, but it is likely to fall short of EU expectations.

Parliament approved the "religious foundations law" by 241 votes for to 31 against after months of sometimes stormy debate and much fine-tuning of its wording.

The law was passed a day after the European Commission published a report on Turkey, which called for greater rights for groups such as religious minorities, criticised a lack of reform and set a deadline for it to open its ports to EU member Cyprus or face unspecified consequences.

The EU had criticised the foundations law draft, saying it failed to provide for compensation to those whose properties have already been sold to third parties since being taken over by the state or other entities.

Europe / MidEast > Turkey

Brussels has urged Ankara to create a comprehensive legal framework that allows all religious groups unrestricted freedom to operate in this overwhelmingly Muslim but secular country.

The main minorities affected by the law are historic Greek Orthodox, Syriac and Armenian communities and also Protestant and Roman Catholic congregations.

The reform prompted months of debate and stirred nationalist fears, with opposition parties suggesting it could increase the influence of the Istanbul-based Orthodox Christian patriarch, the spiritual head of the world's Orthodox Christians.

The EU has also expressed concern over restrictions on training of Christian clergy in Turkey, an issue not tackled in the foundations law.

Ankara is under EU pressure to reopen a Greek Orthodox seminary, but has been unable to find a legal formula that both complies with Turkish secularist principles and is acceptable to Patriarch Bartholomew.

President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, sometimes wary of EU-linked reforms he fears may weaken the Turkish nation state or its secular structure, could still block the foundations law, but parliament would be able to override his veto.

Turkey began EU entry talks one year ago, but is not expected to join the wealthy bloc for many years.

It's difficult to blame Turkey's present ruling party–an Islamic Party which is hemmed in by other parties, some virulently Islamicist–and by a President concerned to maintain Turkey's version of secularism strictly, to hold off an even more sectarian Muslim takeover than the one that operates effectvely now. The difference in worldviews between Humanist and Christian Europe on the one hand, and Turkish population held in order by a unique version of Muslim state-secularism on the other hand, may prevent Turkey from meeting the EU's requirements. The statement of French interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy that "Turkey belongs to Asia" may yet prove the final word from Europe.

--Politicarp

More Info:

Turkey legistlates to improve property-r+ts of Non-Muslim minorities, but restrictions remain [SouthEast European Times - SETI]

Tags: Turkey

• politics
• politicsTurkey
• politicsEU
• propertyr+ts
• religionsrestrictedproperty

Juridics: Hate speech: British court permits hate speech based on religion but not on race

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An Associated Press article, "British far-right leader acquitted of race charges" (Nov10,2k6) significantly restricts race-hatred speech to exclude speech that could be defined as religion-hatred speech, which is apparently permissible even if counter-factual. AP:

LEEDS, England--The leader of Britain's far-right British National Party was acquitted Friday of stirring up racial hatred in a speech that labeled Islam a "wicked, vicious faith."

British National Party leader Nick Griffin was cleared by a jury at Leeds Crown Court in northern England. Another party member, Mark Collett, also was acquitted.

refWrite has maintained that Islam should not be treated as a unitary religious entity, but is subject to very deep variations among its believers and practioners that prohibit ethically generalizations of the entirety of the worldwide Islamic community of more than a billion souls.

In public discourse, political leaders especially should distinguish between Islam and its Islamofascist variants which interpret Islamic teachings based on texts many centuries old to advance religiopolitical ideologies that are not representative of Muslims, either in the UK or around the world.

Europe > Britain

Nick Griffin, British National Party leader should be condemned communally by all Christians in all walks of life, for not making the necessary distinction. However, British jurisprudence does leave him and others room to make false statements about the relgion of others, a point of law bearing several weity concerns in Britain and elsewhere. In regard to the law's distinction between racial and religious hate-speech, the British court may have advanced our ins+t; but in leaving its judgment open-ended on religion hate-speech, it redoubles upon Christians in Britain and everywhere to insist upon the difference between the vast majority of Muslims and that minority today within it who have taken a terrorist turn. Unfortunately, that minority does include some millions of people, a terrifyingly large number, yet the total population of Muslims worldwide is so large that Islamfascism cannot be said to typify Islam. Christians should strongly insist together how fallacious the ideology of Islamophobia is, as indicated by the speech habits of the leadership of the British National Party (which itself, thank God, is only a small fraction of the British non-Muslim population).

-- Owlb

Politics: USA: Democrats add Senate to their conquests resulting from Tuesdays elections, end of era as ground shifts under Prez's feet

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Democrats have won control of the United States Senate, giving them both Houses of Congress that only a few days ago was under Republican control in both Houses. Fox News online reports, "Webb Wins U.S. Senate Seat in Virginia, Allen Expected to Concede Today" (Nov9,2k6).

Democrat Jim Webb has won the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, defeating incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen and giving Democrats control of the Congress for the first time since 1994.

Update Nov10,2k6: Rise and Fall of Sen. George Allen

Montana's Republican Senate seat shifted into the Democratic column Wednesday afternoon, giving the party control of 50 seats and leaving Virginia as the lone roadblock to a Democratic sweep or a Republican split of Congress.

Democratic challenger John Tester claimed victory in Montana, besting three-term Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns.

In Virginia, the State Board of Elections announced it would not certify the outcome of the race between the Allen and Webb until Nov. 27, after which recounts could begin. There are no automatic recounts in Virginia. The candidates were separated by about 7,800 votes out of more than 2.3 million cast, with indications from both camps that any final outcome could wind up in court.

Webb is a former Republican who served as Navy secretary in the Reagan administration. A count by The Associated Press showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a difference of 7,236. Allen was awaiting the result statewide postelection canvass of votes and did not concede the race as of 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

However, sources close to Allen told FOX News on Wednesday evening that the incumbent doesn't intend to "drag this out," and that he could concede as early as Thursday afternoon.

North America > USA > Elections 2006

Allen would be the last of six GOP incumbents to lose re-election bids in a midterm election marked by deep dissatisfaction with the president and the war in Iraq.

Allen shot himself in the foot when he made an off-the-cuff gratuitous racial slur that the media promptly broadcast everywhere. Political office-holders, especially at the h+ level of the US Senate, are expected to set an example in the deployment of verbiage, so it's difficult to regret Allen's loss of his goal and, as it turns out, his party's control of the Senate. More than that, the ever-climbing strength of Webb during the campaign has much to do with the failure of the Republican strategy for the War in Iraq. To me, this failure was beyond planning in its largest aspect, because it turned on the power of Al-Quaeda in Iraq to stir up sufficient Sunnis to murderously provoke elements in the Shi'ite majority to repsond in kind. The promise of a secular government in a Muslim-majority society expressed pluralistically in several different Muslim and other political parties devolved into an all-out sectarian strife of hideous proportions. The misdeeds of Saddam every day pale more and more into the background, while new totalitarians on both the Sunni and the Shi'ite sides become stronger.

Returning to the comparative mundanities of the election, Webb may have won against Allen and the Democrats generally may have triumphed over their predecessors because of the Iraq War (where something new in the American and Iraqi governments' strategies is urgently required), but I still take satisfication in the dumping of the Republicans due to their graft and corruption, and especially the House Republicans' refusal to clean up their act, refusal to end ear-marking in troff-like appropriations practices, and refusal to grant the president a line-by-line veto on appropriations bills. It applies to the Senate as well. Now the Democrats, who have not been immune from the same slyness, have an opportunity to change these practices in alliance with the President. Whether the Dems would have to courage to do so, particularly in regard to line-by-line veto, is quite doubtful. So, we probably will see in the next two years just another turn in the Washington merry-go-round of venality.

-- Politicarp

Further Research:

Rise and Fall of Sen. George Allen [Washington Post]

Tags: USA Congressional Elections 2006

• politics
• politicsUSA
• elections2006
• Demvictory

Politics: USA: Dems squeak to 50-50 in Senate seats, still need one more to get majority, and Virginia may give it

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Toronto's Globe & Mail carries an Associated Press press report "Tester wins Montana, Virginia still in question" (Nov8,2k6 1:15 PM EST). Here's some brief excerpts:

Helena, Mont. — Republican Senator Conrad Burns lost his job in a squeaker of a race Wednesday, thrust from office due to his own gaffes, his ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and a determined campaign by Democrat Jon Tester, a farmer.

Mr. Tester's win gave Democrats at least half the U.S. Senate, but the party still needed a victory in a tight Virginia race to gain control.

Mr. Burns, 71, first elected in 1988 as a folksy, backslapping outsider, has been under siege because of his ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and because of his own gaffes, including an incident in which he cursed at firefighters. ...

Mr. Tester, a state senator who runs an organic farm, had hammered Burns during the campaign for his ties to Mr. Abramoff and what Mr. Tester called the “culture of corruption” in Washington.

Mr. Burns was a top recipient of campaign contributions from Mr. Abramoff, who pleaded guilty in January to corruption charges. Mr. Burns has since returned or donated about $150,000 (U.S.), and has maintained he did nothing wrong and was never influenced by Mr. Abramoff.

The Iraq War may have brawt the Republicans down in the House and in other Senate seats, but the Tester vs. Burns campaign was run on the issue of corruption. Burns claims he personally was innocent. For the sake of the argument, giving Burns the benefit of the doubt in regard to the $150,000 contribution from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, the voters responded to the attack by Tester (the new Montana Senator replacing Burns) against the Republican "culture of corruption." Everything else bracketted out of consideration, the Republicans in Congress got what they deserved for not keeping a clean House and Senate. The bums have been outed. It remains to be seen whether a new set of bums takes up in the Democratic wins (control of the House, 50-50 so far in the Senate) where the Republican bums left off.

As dangerous to the country and the world as the Democrats promise to be, there's a definite streak of justice in the overturn of the Republicans.

-- Politicarp

Politics: USA: Democrats take control of House of Represenatives, Pelosi probable new Speaker

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DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES;
REPUBLICANS RETAIN CONTROL OF SENATE.

MarketWatch's William L. Watts, "Democrats seen winning House" (11:37 PM EST, Nov7,2k6)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Democrats were on track to gain control of the House Tuesday night, ending 12 years of Republican rule in a mid-term election that will likely re-shape the final two years of George W. Bush's presidency.
CNN, MSNBC and the Associated Press all projected that Democrats would win 15 or more seats, ensuring the party a majority in the 435-seat House.
"We are now tonight on the brink of a great Democratic victory," said Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who is in line to become House speaker.

News organizations projected that Democrats would defeat incumbent Republican senators in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island, while two of their own most vulnerable candidates fended off GOP challengers.

The Democrats won apparently a referendum on the Presidency of George W. Bush and the Iraq War; but I think it is the prescription needed to stop a graft-ridden and corrupt Republican caucus in the House of Representatives, whose leadership never firmly disciplined the members and continued the practice of ear-marking financial bills with long-lists of special funding to be spent in the incumbents districts (this applies to Democrats as well). It also accounts for the Republicans' failure to grant the President line-by-line veto of earmarkings in appropriations bills that reached his desk in the White House. Shame on the House Republicans! Let them simmer in their ignominy for a long miserable spell.

-- Politicarp

-- Politicarp

Politics: USA: I haven't heard any Election results and its 8 pm already ... more later...

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... but Webb in Virginia is taking Senate seat from Republican incumbent Allen ... with 14 % of the vote counted ...Drudge items online now:

Voting Machines Woes Cause Early Delays... Polls ordered to stay open late in Indiana... KY Poll Worker Charged With 'Choking Voter'... FBI Investigating Va. Voter Calls... FEDS SEND 850 OBSERVERS TO 22 STATES... BOMB THREAT: WISCONSIN... RAGE: Man Smashes Touchscreen in PA... Chelsea Clinton runs into voting problems...

8:06 PM

PENNSYLVANIA NEWS

Rendell beats Swann in Pa. governor's race 11/7/2006, 8:06 p.m. ET

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Gov. Ed Rendell, a big-city politician who made new friends in the most rural corners of the state, on Tuesday defeated Republican challenger Lynn Swann, a political rookie who was unable to capitalize on his star power as a Pro Football Hall-of-Famer.

So much for football politicos!

8:10 PM

Here's the full course of Election articles online rite now at World Net Daily:

ELECTION 2006

Early exit polls: Voters have problems with Bush
About 4 in 10 'strongly' disapprove of president, Iraq high on list of concerns
--ABC News

Exit polls show Democrats favored
3/4 of voters said scandals mattered to them in deciding how to cast ballot
--Associated Press

GOP control of Congress hangs in balance
Government deploys record number of poll watchers across country
--Associated Press

Election workers see voting problems
Complaints in several states as workers tangle with new machines
--Associated Press

Voter smashes touch-screen machine
Reportedly believed Republicans conspiring to steal election
--Allentown Morning Call, Pennsylvania

Poll worker accused of choking voter
Charged with assault, interfering with election
--Associated Press

Bomb threat closes Wisconsin polling site
'I'm sure that there have been voters who have been inconvenienced by this'
--Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Dems in court to extend Tennessee voting hours
Cite voting-machine problems, long lines, delays in opening polls
--The Tennessean

Election fixing charges fly in Utah town
County has more registered voters than its entire 2005 population
--Associated Press

FBI looking into possible voter intimidation
Officials probing reports of phone calls in Virginia
--Associated Press

Flashback: Dems urged 'pre-emptive' voter intimidation in '04
Manual targets minority leaders to express concern to stir up base
--HotAir.com

Voting machine woes cause early delays
Hundreds of precincts forced to switch to paper ballots
--Associated Press

WorldNetDaily Exclusive
Join new Election Day Notebook discussion board
Share your voting experiences – good, bad, ugly – with nation
--WND

Virginia: George Allen vs. Jim Webb
See official results from high-profile Senate race
--Commonwealth of Virginia

Florida: Fight for Mark Foley's seat
Official results on Republican Joe Negron vs. Democrat Tim Mahoney
--Florida Department of State

Links to all state elections offices
Find out what's happening in the races important to you
--White House Today

Hour-by-hour guide to election returns
1st indications come after 6 p.m. when Indiana, Kentucky polls close
--Wall Street Journal

WND.COMMENTARY
Chuck Norris on what to do Election Day
Exclusive: Newest WND columnist explains 'The battlefields for freedom'
--WND

We'll be back later as the vote counts roll in and the nite wears on ....

8:40 PM

Not particularly Election nite fare, but you may want to catch up on some stalwart neo-con analysis from The Weekly Standard.

Voting with Michael Steele
Maryland's lieutenant governor gets an unpleasant reception at the voting booth.
by Sonny Bunch
11/07/2006 2:55:00 PM

Could Have, Would Have, Should Have
How Republicans could have avoided the trouble they're in.
by Fred Barnes
11/07/2006 12:00:00 AM

Yikes!
Kristol, Barnes, Labash, Continetti, Matus, Last, and the rest give their midterm election predictions.
by Weekly Standard Staff
11/03/2006 6:00:00 PM

The New Leaders?
What the House will look like if the Democrats win.
by Irwin M. Stelzer
11/07/2006 12:00:00 AM

Gotta' go find some results on the count!

9:00 PM

Bob Casey, Jr (an anti-abortion Democrat) takes seat from 2-term Republican conservative Catholic, Senator Rick Santorum, according to CTV just now.

So far, the Dems have picked up 2 Senate seats, while the Republicans have lost 2, with one Independent (is that Senator Liebermann? -- who was forced to run independently due to his loss to antiwar candidate in the Dem primary for Senator in Connecticut).

9:40 PM

CNN:

11:30 PM

NYT House Results Map

-- Politicarp

Politics: USA: Major eve-of-election poll says Americans favor Democrats on the issues

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CNN reports the results of an Opinion Research poll on the eve before the USA national elections tomorrow.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A majority of Americans said issues such as the Iraq war, the economy and terrorism would head in the right direction if the Democrats won control of Congress on Tuesday, according to a CNN poll released Monday.

A majority, 58 percent, said that a Democratic Congress would move the economy in the right direction, compared to 43 percent who said a Republican Congress would help the economy, according to the telephone poll of 1,008 adult Americans, which was carried out Friday through Sunday by Opinion Research Corp.

Fifty-four percent of respondents said a Democratic Congress would move the Iraq war in the right direction, compared to 34 percent who said a Republican Congress would do the same. (Poll results -- PDF)

Fifty-five percent said a Democratic Congress would move the country in the right direction on the issue of terrorism, compared to 47 percent who said that a GOP Congress would do the right thing on terrorism.

On the question of taxes, Democrats bested Republicans 49 percent to 37 percent when those surveyed were asked who would do a better job.

But those polled felt less strongly about the general state of the country if Democrats took control of Congress. Thirty-nine percent of those polled said the country would be better off if the Democrats took control. Thirty-seven percent said that the country would remain the same regardless of which party won control, 20 percent said the country would be better off with a Republican Congress, and 3 percent had no opinion.

The margin of error for those questions was plus or minus 3 percent.

North America > USA > Elections

Discontent over the handling of Iraq appears widespread: Sixty-one percent disapprove of the war, whereas 33 percent favor the war. Fifty-six percent said the war has not made the country safer from terrorism.

Sixty percent also said the Iraq war would head in the wrong direction if the Republicans retain control of Congress.

The poll respondents are nearly evenly divided in their opinion of the nation's economic conditions, with 8 percent describing them as "very good," 41 percent as "good," 32 percent as "poor" and 18 percent as "very poor."

The ability to handle the threat of terrorism -- long considered a key Republican strength -- may not prove so helpful this election. Sixty percent of poll respondents said they aren't worried that they or members of their family will become victims of terrorism.

Four years ago, in a similar poll, 28 percent said the country would be better off under a GOP-controlled Congress, 22 percent thought that way about the Democrats and 47 percent said it would make no difference.

If the Democrats were to win power, Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California would become speaker of the house. Asked their opinion of her, 35 percent said it was favorable, 24 percent said it was unfavorable and 42 percent said they were unsure.

Pelosi had higher approval than Rep. Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who has served as speaker since 1999. Twenty-two percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, 32 percent had unfavorable views and 46 percent said they were unsure.

Nancy Peolosi (D, Calif) would become Speaker of the House of Representatives should the Democrats win in that chamber of the Congress. She has promised not to use the House's time and resources investigating and attempting to impeach President George W. Bush (which would only elevate Richard Cheney to the Presidency, who if also removed would give way to ... the Speaker of the House herself, according to the impeachment scenario). refWrite, having never fully endorsed Bush, but having favoured him generally on certain key policies, would make as rapid a readjustment as possible should the Democrats gain Congressional power.

However, to the assessment offered by CNN around the OpinionResearch eleventh-hour poll, Robert Novack makes some astute observations on the slim Repuboican possiblities:

But what about the unlikely event that Republicans succeed in keeping both the House and the Senate? Republican pundits deceive when they lower the bar, writing now of a Democratic sweep of the House as something that had always been inevitable. In fact, no one but the biggest Democratic dreamer could have expected a 15-seat gain in the House in 2006 after the historic 2004 election solidified GOP power around the country at the federal and, in most places, the state level. The thought that Democrats might actually take the Senate was not even in the minds of the most partisan Democratic dreamers.

But the reality of expectations has now changed. Republicans would be euphoric to cling to a one-seat advantage in the House and a 50-50 Senate. In fact, it would probably be demonstrative proof that, in the long haul, their grip on the nation is bulletproof. If you can't lose an election after all that has happened in the last two years, it may not be possible to lose.

If Republicans win, it will be for one reason: a superior turnout operation. The electorate will answer several questions tomorrow, but the most interesting one for Republicans is whether the Karl Rove-Ken Mehlman voter-turnout program is really all that powerful? Can it bring to the polls significant numbers of voters who in the past would have skipped the midterm, voting only in presidential contests? Can it be the Republicans' deus ex machina in the final act of the 2006 election, pulling the closest races out of the fire, and perhaps even providing some late surprises?

See Novack's click-up link below.

-- Politicarp

More Info:

Final Predictions by Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman, U.Va. Center for Politics

Dems set to gain 19 House seats, elect 2 new Senators [Robert Novack]

Tags: USA Congressional Elections 2006

• politics
• politicsUSA
• elections2006
• Housecontrol
• PelosiNancy
• Senatecontrol
• issuespoll
• Democratsahead

Politics: USA: Dems seem sure to win House of Representatives, Republicans to retain slim majority in Senate

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Forbes magazine via Associated Press reporter David Epso tells us that the "GOP still hopes for a slim majority" (Nov5,2k6), a hope down considerably from pre-scandal expectations. But the same journalist (AP) in USA Today, "Democrats poised for election gains" (Nov5,2k6). In the second article, Epso writes about the fite for control of the Senate, "Democrats said they would defeat Republican Senators Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Mike DeWine in Ohio and Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island, and Republicans made little attempt to dispute them."

North America > USA

Pennsylvania is overall a hotly contested state this election time, where seats in the House of Representatives attracted huge battles. "Seats held by Republican Congressmen Michael Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach and Don Sherwood in eastern Pennsylvania were so fiercely fought that the two party committees spent more than $18 million (euro14 million) combined to prevail." In a way, Pennsylvania epitomizes a string of geostrategic contestations: "A string of states stretching from Connecticut through New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky holds roughly 20 competitive races. All were in Republican hands, a blend of open seats and incumbents in trouble. Reynolds, of New York, as well as Congresswoman Deborah Pryce of Ohio, also a member of the leadership, were among them."

Should one be tempted to say this predictions reflect the partisanship of the MainStream Media, one need only compare the analysis of Robert Novack of the Evans-Novak Report (Oct18,2k6 - email newsletter and online at Human Events. Conservative hardliner and topnotch election reporter/analyst Novack, in his most recent email report, says, "If the election were held today, Democrats would seize control of the House of Representatives, perhaps by a substantial margin. In addition to the ones where they trail, Republicans now have several races teetering on the brink of disaster. Democrats +20, Republicans -20."

Novack's Oct25,2k6 edition tacks on this thawt: "While our seat-by-seat analysis shows Democrats winning the House by a four-seat margin, the overriding question is whether a 'wave' will deliver a really big Democratic majority. That presumes an overwhelming sentiment that negates seat-by-seat analyses. ¶Actually, waves [that override all previous expectations]are very rare in recent American political history. The only wave we have seen during the 39-years of this publication was the Watergate election of 1974, when the 49-seat Democratic gain surpassed all forecasts. The gain of 49 was extraordinary because of the very high Democratic level going into the election, raising the party's House margin to an astounding 145 seats. The famous Gingrich election of 1994 was not a wave. We predicted a 45-seat gain, based on seat-by-seat analysis, and the actual pickup was 51. "

-- Politicarp

More Info:

USA Election info, mapped, daily updates
Election Prediction

Tags: USA Congressional Elections 2006

• politics
• politicsusa
• elections2006
• congressionalelections
• EpsoDavid
• NovackRobert